Orange County Republican Party Chair Scott Baugh
Did you know Barack Obama won 48th Congressional District, 163,063 to 160,584?
When Barack Obama wins in south county’s 48th district, Red County might want to consider a name change.
The Shadow heard that the OCGOP was worried about demographic changes going against them. But Obama’s win in the 48th wasn’t about “Demographics.” The 48th is 68% white and has in it some of the most wealthy and luxurious cities in the country including Newport Beach and Corona Del Mar, often considered base turf for the GOP. Republican registration dwarfs Democratic registration 199,000 to 128,000. That means well to do Republicans voted for Obama. While Steve Young wasn’t able to capitalize on the Obama wave, he should be given credit for opening his office to the Obama campaign early this year. Steve Young understood the importance of Obama and activism well before many Orange County Democrats did.
Nationally, as Bush and Republicans have mismanaged the country, Democrats were able to bring into their tent upper-middle class and wealthy voters who are highly educated and were once a key part of the Republican base. Perhaps gun toting Sarah Palin was not the one McCain wanted to put on the ticket to appeal to moderate white collar voters.
This is the dilemma for Republican leaders. Do the Republicans keep beating the cultural issues drum to appeal to the evangelical and rural vote or is something else needed? Does the party keep getting marginalized into the south and the rural west or is something new in order?
Note to Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh , “You have a problem.”
Interesting, I thought McCain won OC by about 5 points (which was remarkable already.) Where did that margin come from? HB/FV? Orange & Fullerton? I always thought the 48th was the reddest area.
McCain won the OC by a little more than 2 points.
McCain 50.2% to Obama’s 47.6%
Where did you get those numbers, Shadow? I’ve tried everything to verify it and can’t. Wikipedia has that district going 60% for Bush in 2000 and 58% for Bush in 2004, but does not yet have the results for 2008.
Statement of Votes, OC Registrar of Voters
Apparently, short-sighted greed and cronyism are not the way to run a 21st century society… Huh? Will Mickey weep?
http://www.ocvote.com/live/gen2008/sov.htm
Page 105 of the Statement of Votes PDF.
McCain got more votes than Obama in the 40th, 42nd, 44th, and 46th Congressional district. Obama won in the 47th and 48th.
2.6% that is, in OC. That’s amazing that he took the 48th, which I’d often heard was “the reddest CD in America.” Steve Young and his tireless organizing and army of volunteers these past few years have to get some credit for that, even if it didn’t show up in Steve’s numbers.
This news is huge. I just spent an hour or so tweaking on the insides of these numbers.
Third party votes account for part of the difference. With only 8% more overall votes being cast for president, third party votes more than doubled from 3,364 in 2004 to 6,975 in 2008. This difference matches the overall vote difference between McCain and Obama (less than 3,000 votes), but Bush beat Kerry in the district by 55,000 votes in 2004 so there is a demographic swing to look for as well.
The swing came from Tustin and Irvine. Comparing the 2004 with the 2008 presidential elections you get the following in round numbers:
Bush beat Kerry in Tustin 13,000 – 9,000
McCain lost to Obama in Tustin 11,000 – 12,500
Bush beat Kerry in Irvine 36,000 – 32,000
McCain lost to Obama in Irvine 34,000 – 48,000
The overall votes in the 48th District for president increased by 8%, which is the turnout increase for Tustin, but in Irvine the increase was by 14%.
Note Prop 8 passed in Tustin by 56%-44%, while Prop 8 failed in Irvine by 51%-49%.
The demographics in Irvine were at 30% Asian and 7% Latino at last count, with median household income at $111k. The demographics in Tustin were at 15% Asian and 34% Latino at last count, with median household income at $60k.
Thus there are two cities going in opposite directions. Irvine is becoming a high-tech university town with a young Asian demographic, and Tustin is becoming more of a Hispanic community as part of the Santa Ana area. The high-educated yuppie/Asian demographic turned out in big numbers for Obama. The blue-collar Tustin voters with religious affiliation are a natural target for cultural conservatives, while the Irvine yuppies are more of a target for centrist candidates.
I’m not saying which way the GOP can or will or should go. I’m just saying its an interesting situation.
OK, I am saying which way we should go, but I’m a yuppie centrist who ran against Rohrabacher in the 46th district and I’m pretty sure I’m destined for a lifetime of being outvoted.