The Field Poll Thur Dec 20th GOP Contenders

The report reads in part: “Rudy Giuliani still leads the GOP field in this state, with 25% support, unchanged from October. However, Huckabee, who was receiving just 4% of Republican voter preferences in California in October, is now in second place, receiving 17% support–just ahead of Mitt Romnney (15%) and John McCain (12%)”
“Fred Thompson’s support has declined sharply, from 12% in October to 6% now.

Huckabee’s big gain is attributable to his getting strong support from California Republicans who are born-again Christians”

Note: “This poll was taken Dec 10-17.”

Table 1 shows how quickly people are open minded as to whom they support. What we do not know is whether or not the prior polls were of the same voters which could impact the shifting sand of this strange election primary season.

i.e. In March of this year Rudy was at 37% dropping to 35% in August, 25% in Oct and holding at 25% in Dec.

Mike Huckabee went from 3% voter preference in March, dropped to 1% in August, increasing to 4% in Oct and taking off like a rocket in December reaching 17%.

Let’s use the same calendar for Mitt where his numbers jumped from 7% to 17% dropping down to 13% closing out at 15% in December.

Let me not overlook Senator John McCain who just received CT Senator Joe Lieberman’s endorsement which obviously is not reflected in these numbers. John went from 24% in March when he was in second place than nose dived to 9% followed by a minor bump to 12% which he continues to hold.

Fred Thompson started at 8% increasing to 13% in August than dropping to 12% in Oct down to 6% in December. The rest of the Republican field has never broken out above single digits and therefore are not included in this post.

The undecided voters have ranged from 15 % to 22%.

OK fellow political junkies. Of the GOP field, whom do you believe will prevail in CA and why?

About Larry Gilbert