Update on the 47th Congressional District campaigns

Adam Probolsky, the noted pollster and GOP consultant, has written his thoughts about the race for the 47th Congressional District, over in the Flash Report. Probolsky acknowledges the fact that the district has begun to swing back in favor of the Republicans. However, of the two GOP candidates who are running, he thinks that Rosie Avila won’t be able to raise money, and the other candidate, Tan Nguyen, has too little experience and is wasting his money without real poltical advice.

Probolsky does not note the fact that former O.C. GOP Chairman Tom Fuentes took $10,000 of Nguyen’s money, in return for serving as his “senior advisor.” I hope Fuentes did not design or approve Nguyen’s mailers, which are truly atrocious. Lord knows who he is sending them to.

If Nguyen had hired a real consultant, he might have had a shot, but now he has blown through his money. He is in debt and Rosie is starting to raise money in earnest. Her biggest problem won’t be money, but rather being careful as to what she says on the campaign warpath. She has a tendency to say what is on her mind, and that is not always helpful. (I of course love to do the same, but then I am not running for anything…).

Currently Avila is embroiled in a mess of her own making, regarding an editorial she wrote, that was subsequently published in the O.C. Register. In the column she claimed that the Santa Ana Unified School District was distributing awful books that were essentially anti-American. The rub was that the books were allegedly coming from the government of Mexico, via a donation.

However, my colleage here at the Orange Juice, Claudio Gallegos, wrote a scathing rebuttal that turned up a number of purported fallacies in the Avila editorial. She may yet get past this mess, but it is really cranking up supporters of the incumbent in the 47th, the notorious Loretta Sanchez. Many of my Democrat friends acknowledge that Sanchez has accomplished nothing in Congress, but most of them cannot abide Avila, and this latest misstep with the editorial in question is now enflaming them to support Sanchez even more.

All that aside, I also heard today from a published author who is an authority on defense. He might be joining the fray as a third party candidate. I won’t reveal his name yet, until I have his blessing to do so, but this certainly could complicate matters for the GOP. Baugh needs to pull Nguyen aside, get him out of the race, and solidify the party behind Avila. She is our best hope now, bumps and all, and we cannot waste our time bickering in the primary. Avila will need to be focused and well-funded if indeed she has any hope of prevailing in the general.

If Nguyen really wants to run for something, let him run for the 69th Assembly District. I’m sure that the current GOP candidate, Ryan Gene Williams, will give him a run for the money. We’ll let the voters figure out which way to go on that one. I know I will continue to back Williams.

In related news, over at OC Blog, Jubal is pushing Lupe Moreno to run for the 47th instead of the 34th Senate District. Not good! We don’t need to give Sanchez even more material to run on. If Moreno enters that race, expect Sanchez to bring up 187 again. That won’t help us in the 47th.

You can read Probolsky’s column at http://www.flashreport.org/blog0a.php?postID=2006022403385036&post_offsetP=0&authID=2005091915452225.

About Admin

"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.