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2020 Vote: Close Contests as of 11/20 (+ State Results)


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If you haven’t seen Rocky 2, I’m spoiling the ending for you.

We have several close contests remaining in OC — here’s an update of where they stand as of 11/12’s report.  (Plus some state results.)

First, the overall numbers!

Website Updated: 11/12/2020 04:59:39 PM
Updating local races for 11/13!
Updating local races for 11/14
Updating local races for 11/18
Updating local races for 11/20
Doug Cirbo leads in the Lake Forest City Council race by 24 votes.  In other words, this one is entirely over.  BUT:
Brea School Board Area 5 is, improbably, tied at 1,803 apiece!
And as of 11/24, Lyons leads Barnes, 1,804-1,803, with 27 more ballots outstanding.  It’s not clear how many of those are from Brea, but having set those remaining from this district aside until they were all collected and verified would make sense.
The Registrar of Voters’ office will issue one more regular report tomorrow at 5:00.  Its “Votes Left to Count” page shows 164 votes remaining to count — but it may not have been updated.   Either way, it seems likely that the BOUSD race will come down to whose side can cure their rejected ballots.  I’ll be starting a separate post on that now.
At this late point, we are only following the races for Brea School Board Area 5 and Lake Forest City Council.  Lauren Barnes continues to lead Gail Lyons in the former by a total of 1,801 to 1,799, stable for the second consecutive day.  In the Lake Forest, Doug Cirbo continues to lead Chris McDonald, 1973 to 1955; a margin that seems stable.

November 3, 2020 General Election

UNOFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS

Look down at the bottom for “What’s Left to Count”!
Vote by Mail Ballots:Partially Reported
Early Voting Ballots:Complete

VOTER TURNOUT: 86.6%86.8% 87.0% 87.2% 87.3%

Ballots Cast: 1,533,9231,537,729 1,541,997 1,546,377

Vote Center Ballots: 260,988
Vote by Mail Ballots: 1,273,139 1,276,966 1,281,237 1,284,2211,285,616
Registered Voters: 1,771,537
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 100%
Fully Reporting: 1,795
Total Precincts: 1,795
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
808,164
809,941
811,916
813,132

813,907
53.34%
53.53%
53.51%
53.49%
53.49%
670,245
672,128
674,231
675,855
676,417
44.41%
44.42%
44.44%
44.46%
44.46%

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th District
(VOTE FOR 1)

200,428 51.02%
  192,416 48.98%

As of 8/12:

Michelle Steel’s lead has gone from 7,000 to 8,000.  This one is over, barring Congress tossing it out due to irregularities.  (For the sake of the Vietnamese community, I hope that they will still investigate the illegal ballot harvesting.)

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District
(VOTE FOR 1)
On 11/7, it was, and on 11/13 it is:
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
* 130,606
133,059
50.64%
50.5%
127,327
130,373
49.36%
49.5%
ON 11/11, it is:
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
*COTTIE PETRIE-NORRIS (DEM) 132,776 50.51%
130,072 49.49%

Close enough that we’ll continue to watch it, but it’s not going to happen.

BREA OLINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5
(VOTE FOR 1)

On 11/7 it was:

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
1,766 50.04%
1,763 49.96%

On 11/12 it was (and 11/13) (and 11/14) (and 11/17):

1,793
1,794
1,800
1,801

50.00%
49.96%
50.03%
50.03%
1,793
1,797
1,798
1,799

50.00%
50.04%
49.97%
49.97%

(On 11/11, it was tied at 1,786.  What do you think — should we continue to watch this one?  OK, we will!)  (One vote matters!)  And please remember that Barnes signs were hidden behind Lyons signs, apparently by people favoring Ryan Bent’s campaign, whose signs occluded both.

CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY Member, City Council
(VOTE FOR 2)
Cheryl Brothers is not going to catch up to Ted Bui for the final seat.  Sorry, Gus.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,754 51.10%
4,549 48.90%

On 11/12:

4,924 51.21%
  4,691 48.79%

We’ll continue to follow this one, because it’s still within potential (though as yet unlikely) recount range — but Lauren’s not going to catch up to Larry in the raw count.

11/14 update: Larry now leads Lauren by a total of 38,077 to 37,846, a margin of 229 votes.  The percentage lead is 13.01% to 12.93%, or 0.08%.  The percentage says Yes Yes, but the margin says No No.  I don’t know how flush Lauren is or how much money she could raise for a recount, but I tend to believe that margin.  I’d love to be wrong on this.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
42,813 14.90%
37,488 13.05%
37,386 13.01%
37,161 12.93%
31,543 10.98%
26,681 9.29%
15,347 5.34%
14,359 5.00%
10,006 3.48%
8,480 2.95%
8,045 2.80%
6,151 2.14%
6,122 2.13%
5,771 2.01%
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
43,417 14.84%
38,287 13.08%
37,902 12.95%
37,683 12.88%
32,212 11.01%
27,216 9.30%
15,730 5.37%
14,657 5.01%
10,200 3.49%
8,683 2.97%
8,215 2.81%
6,311 2.16%
6,280 2.15%
5,870 2.01%

11/17 — Agran’s lead over Johnson-Norris remains steady, now at 227 votes (0.08%).  That’s arguably close to recount range, but likely not worth the expense.  I’ve checked the news and her website to see if LJN has conceded, but haven’t found any sign of it.  The winner would serve out only Khan’s two-year unexpired term; that this seat will come up again in 2022, may counsel against a recount.

I had missed this close race before (probably having skipped over it being a vote for two seats.) Even without the context of prior race, this doesn’t look close enough to flip.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
6,429 24.60%
5,657
5.660
21.65%
21.64%
5,512|
5.522
21.10%
21.12
5,003 19.15%
3,528 13.50%
CITY OF LAKE FOREST Member, City Council, District 1
(VOTE FOR 1)

We’ll continue to follow this one, because it’s still within potential (though as yet unlikely) recount range.

11/7

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
1,952
1,968
1,972
1,975
23.16%
23.06%
23.06%
23.05%
1,928
1,949
1,953
1,953
22.87%
22.84%
33.73%
22.79%
1,650 19.56%
1,574 18.66%
958 11.45%
368 4.41%

11/11

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
1,966 1,975 23.06% 23.05%
1,949 1,953 22.86% 22.79%
1,663 19.56%
1,588 18.66%
971 11.45%
373 4.41%

11/17: Cirbo continues to lead by 22 (o.26%); McDonald is a mathematician, so he can figure out his odds from there.

CITY OF LOS ALAMITOS Member, City Council, District 1

On 11/7
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
499 50.76%
484 49.24%

On 11/12, 11/13, 11/14

508
514
514
50.80%
50.89%
50.84%
494
496
497
49.20%
49.11%
50.16%

At this rate, Grose will have caught up by December!

As of 11/14, still no miracle: Gallagher leads by 488.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
15,580 20.54%
12,664 16.70%
11,970 15.78%
11,507 15.17%
8,909 11.75%
7,366 9.71%
3,803 5.01%
2,568 3.39%
1,474 1.94%
This one ain’t going anywhere good, so we’ll stop following it.
11/7
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
18,784 31.77%
14,960 25.30%
13,817 23.37%
7,675 12.98%
3,894 6.59%

11/12

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
19,226 31.82%
15,343 25.40%
14,057 23.27%
7,856 13.00%
3,935 6.51%
This one’s fully cooked.  We’ll stop following it.
11/7
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
8,007 23.84%
6,884 20.50%
6,503 19.36%
6,340 18.88%
5,853 17.43%
11/12
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
8,078 23.81%
6,967 20.53%
6,573 19.37%
6,398 18.85%
MARKUS J. LENGER 5,918 17.44%

STATE RESULTS!

No change in results, so not updating.

Proposition Title Yes
Votes
% No
Votes
%
WINNER

Yes

#

14

Bonds to Continue Stem Cell Research 8,025,624 51.0% 7,700,870 49.0%
No 15 Property Tax to Fund Schools, Government Services 7,689,551 48.1% 8,305,396 51.9%
No 16 Affirmative Action in Government Decisions 6,799,374 43.1% 8,985,239 56.9%
Yes 17 Restores Right to Vote After Prison Term 9,360,022 58.7% 6,592,051 41.3%
No 18 17-year-old Primary Voting Rights 7,062,185 44.2% 8,924,432 55.8%
Yes 19 Changes Certain Property Tax Rules 7,988,336 51.1% 7,652,789 48.9%
No 20 Parole Restrictions for Certain Offenses 5,943,588 38.1% 9,657,632 61.9%
No 21 Expands Governments’ Authority to Rent Control 6,344,780 40.2% 9,433,021 59.8%
Yes 22 App-Based Drivers and Employee Benefits 9,303,329 58.6% 6,583,279 41.4%
No 23 State Requirements for Kidney Dialysis Clinics 5,732,743 36.4% 10,025,844 63.6%
Yes 24 Amends Consumer Privacy Laws 8,760,221 56.1% 6,856,699 43.9%
No 25 Eliminates Money Bail System 6,796,575 43.8% 8,731,213 56.2%

PRESIDENT:

(Candidate, Votes, Percent)

Remember that they keep saying that Biden won the popular vote by about 5,000,000 votes?  Found almost all of them right here!

 Joseph R. Biden, (Party Preference: DEM), 10,460,073, 64.0%

*Donald J. Trump, (Party Preference: REP), 5,536,973, 33.9%

Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente Guerra (Party Preference: AI), 54,001, 0.3%

Howie Hawkins, (Party Preference: GRN), 74,429, 0.5%

Jo Jorgensen, (Party Preference: LIB), 170,689. 1.0%

Gloria La Riva, (Party Preference: P&F), 45,713, 0.3%

Candidate Votes Percent
* TJ Cox
(Party Preference: DEM)
79,092
49.4%
David G. Valadao
(Party Preference: REP)
81,157
50.6%

* Incumbent

Candidate Votes Percent
Christy Smith
(Party Preference: DEM)
166,513
50.0%
Mike Garcia
(Party Preference: REP)
166,617
50.0%
Candidate Votes Percent
Kipp Mueller
(Party Preference: DEM)
187,655
49.2%
* Scott Wilk
(Party Preference: REP)
193,741
50.8%

* Incumbent

Candidate Votes Percent
Kathy Miller
(Party Preference: DEM)
63,771
49.9%
Carlos Villapudua
(Party Preference: DEM)
63,975
50.1%

* Incumbent

Total Ballots Left to Count (as of 11/12)

(Updated Figures as of 11/17 in Green) 

*IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Ballot estimates will expand as eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) are received via USPS and ballots deposited in official drop boxes (prior to 8PM on Election Night) are received and processed.

California law (AB 860) extended the deadline for eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) to be received through November 20, 2020. The changes also expanded the time for voters to cure ballot signature issues to November 24, 2020.

Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 253,460 256,060
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 252,342 254,518

Total Estimated Left to Count: 1,118  542


Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 20,413

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,407 20,413

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 6 0


Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 61,000

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 60,993 61,000

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 7 0


*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 97,403

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 97,398

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 5


Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated [note: for example, due to damage] left to count: 3,826

Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 3,815 3,826

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 11 0


*Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,199 16,799

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,183 15,257

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 16 1542

[I’ll just note that 26,600 eligible vote by mail ballots arriving between 11 and 14 days after the election, if true, is a shocking indictment of our US Post Offices leadership. I wonder if some of the mail was just backed up while sitting in a pile that hadn’t been tabulated, rather that all arriving this late.  Some actual reporting may be in order here!  


Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 28,221

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 27,177 28,221

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 1,044 0


*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to count: 28,000

Total eligible final drop box pickups counted: 27,992 o

Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to count: 8 0


RAVBM Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to count: 398

Total eligible RAVBM ballots counted: 377 398

Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to count: 21 0

[Note: This is a new category this year; I’m guessing that it means “Registered Abroad,” i.e., mostly active military service members’ votes.  Yes, I could ask, but where’s the fun in that?]

A final thought: if the number of Eligible Late-Arriving Mailed-In Ballots really dropped from 241 on Thursday 11/19 to 140 on Friday 11/20, that would suggest that they already went through the ballots and eliminated 101 of them for reasons that may be signature related (and thus still subject to cure), or may not be (instead involving postmarks, possibly voting in the wrong district, and such.)  I presume, but do not know, that that lower number of ballots would not have received cure notices if they didn’t involve something curable, such as signature mismatches — and maybe nothing else.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 (in violation of Roberts Rules) when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Expelled from DPOC in October 2018 (in violation of Roberts Rules) for having endorsed Spitzer over Rackauckas -- which needed to be done. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. One of his daughters co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)

2 Comments

  1. Ron & Anna Winship

    *Yeah, watching Moorlach have to humble himself back into the Board of Supervior seat is a bit depressing for us. No doubt, that he is the best Republican in California. For those of us who are Conspiracy Theorists we know the Republicants wanted him out, because he was able to work across the aisle and get Legislation past that mattered. Anyway, too bad that this is the reality still – behind the Orange Curtain. Maybe they can get Mike Pence to come to Orange County and run for the IRWD…..next?

  2. Ron & Anna Winship

    *Just a couple of observations: We are pulling for Christy Smith to get another couple of hundred votes to beat Garcia in the 25th. That would be sweet. Also, pretty funny the Mean Green Machine of Larry Agran is making his 10th Comeback. Larry is like the Energizer Bunny…..takes a licking and keeps on ticking….but then that was John Cameron Swayze that said that. Our old friend Bruce Whitiker came within a any eyelash of being ousted by some immigrant…..how would have that sounded in his hometown in Indiana?
    We still feel badly for Harley……but hopefully he will find somewhere else to run….like against our pal Moorlach for the Supervisor Seat….wouldn’t that be a hoot? As Tracey
    Lawerence said: “Time Marches On”.

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