The Van Tran for Congress campaign has just released the results of a poll they commissioned, that shows that “fully 39% of likely voters say they are supporting Van Tran, while 39% are backing Sanchez and 5% siding with Ceci Iglesias (17% undecided).”
The poll also indicates that “Tran’s definite support level is higher than that of Congresswoman Sanchez (30% definitely voting for Tran – 28% definitely voting for Sanchez).”
The 5% Iglesias is commanding is starting to mean a lot in this tight race. And it will be quite a battle for the 17% undecided voters.
Here are a few more results from the Tran poll:
- While there are certainly solid ethnic coalitions in this race – Asian and Vietnamese voters siding with Tran, Latinos favoring Sanchez – Tran enjoys a commanding 34-point lead with White voters in the district (60% Tran – 26% Sanchez).
- Van Tran also polls strongly with Independent voters (42% Tran – 28% Sanchez) and older voters (50% Tran – 30% Sanchez) – two groups that are likely going to determine the victor here.
- Van Tran has a commanding 22-point lead over Sanchez (52% – 30%) among voters who say they are “extremely interested” in the upcoming elections (rate their interest a “10”on a one-to-ten scale). Among a broader high interest segment of the electorate – the “8-10s” – Tran is up eight points (44% – 38%).
- Van Tran is better positioned from an image perspective. Overall, 43% of voters have a favorable image of Van Tran and 18% are unfavorable towards him (+25 net favorable image rating). By comparison, Loretta Sanchez has a 45% favorable – 36% unfavorable image rating (+9 net favorable). The fact that Sanchez has twice the unfavorables as Tran (with about the same favorables) explains why voters who have an opinion of both candidates are voting for Van Tran by an 18-point margin (54% Tran – 36% Sanchez).
The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. They surveyed 300 likely general election voters in California’s Forty-Seventh Congressional District. The telephone survey was conducted October 13-14, 2010 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.
In related news, the OC Democrats blog is reporting that Sanchez has raised almost a million more than Tran, who has less than $3ooK cash on hand.
Both Tran and Sanchez got boosts last week from visits by Bill Clinton and Sarah Palin.
Nate still has Sanchez trending up…but with new polling data that could easily change…I’m still not buying into the Tran gain.
It’s closer than Arnold and Rohrbacher though. Could be SA keeps a majority congressional rep even though the House flips. Good luck having Tran deliver anything, but that’s what you’re voting for.
gericault,
Interesting point. Tran winning would suck but if the GOP takes the House he would be in a better position to do something for the district. Sanchez would be in a tough spot if her party lost the House.
Gericault:
I’ve heard the Orange County Democratic Party is having a very difficult time motivating their base to even do precinct walking for Congresswoman Sanchez.
Anyways, upon looking at Phu Nguyen’s and Van Tran’s races more carefully, I think both of their campaigns may be having a synergistic effect upon one another.
It appears to me that Nguyen’s campaign might be indirectly helping Tran’s campaign and Tran’s campaign might be indirectly helping Nguyen’s campaign.
Many people in the Vietnamese community will vote for both candidates to ensure that if one doesn’t get elected to higher public office, the other will.
But if both end up getting elected, then the Vietnamese community would find itself wielding more political power at the state and federal level.
That would be funny, as Allan Mansoor has hired Little Saigon insider and Tran acolyte Daisy Tong specifically to badmouth Phu in Little Saigon and do opposition research on him. Still, Van is trying to keep his ties to Mansoor behind the scenes, not wanting to be tied to close to anti-Latino demagogy. (Even as Minutemen show up at Loretta events waving Van Tran signs, no doubt to his discomfort.)
Vern wrote:
> That would be funny, as Allan Mansoor has hired Little Saigon
> insider and Tran acolyte Daisy Tong specifically to badmouth
> Phu in Little Saigon and do opposition research on him.
If by badmouthing Phu, you mean Tong is running around Little Saigon and calling him a “commie” because he owns a company that does business with Vietnam, that may play well with reactionary elements in that community.
But it appears to me the younger generation is far more preoccupied with bread and butter issues. Most were born and raised here and don’t have the same kind of intense nationalist fervor their parents might have had.
Although I realize some persons of Vietnamese ancestry will vote for Loretta Sanchez and others will vote for Allan Mansoor, it seems to me this community is now in a position to elect people to both state and federal office.
That, more than anything else, may be the most important factor in these races. If Nguyen and Tran get elected, then the Vietnamese community will have some clout at all levels of government — from school board to Congress.
I haven’t seen all the campaign literature, but besides gossip, it doesn’t appear Nguyen and Tran are directing much firepower against each other. If anything, their efforts at getting out the vote may be benefiting each other.
If by badmouthing Phu, you mean Tong is running around Little Saigon and calling him a “commie” because he owns a company that does business with Vietnam, that may play well with reactionary elements in that community.
Yeah, and more than that… There was talk recently that in order for him to want to take a low-paying job in the California Assembly when he’s used to making 800 grand a year, he MUST be getting a big kickback from the Vietnamese government (to be some kind of Mansoorian candidate in Sacramento I assume, trick them into doing all their business with the commies.) The rumor was even passed around a week ago that he was dead! All kinds of crazy stuff. And Daisy has been calling everyone he’s ever done business with (practically all of Little Saigon) just to find anyone who has a grudge or complaint against him.
The Commie stuff is especially absurd, when one of his main projects has been to offer micro-loans to impoverished women in Vietnam, essentially subverting the Communist system by creating hundreds of little capitalists there.
A poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies is worthless. This Republican outfit has a long history of fake polls (including notoriously faking responses to show support for Bush’s war in Iraq) and violations of laws concerning disclosure of polling data.
See http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Public_Opinion_Strategies
Tran did nothing in the Assembly. Sanchez has served this congressional district admirably. She will win.
> She will win.
Only if the Democratic Party can mobilize enough people to go to the polls and vote for her.
“Only if the Democratic Party can mobilize enough people to go to the polls and vote for her.”
MQ say:
Just call ACORN they will fraud the vote up for ya!
Tran is going to win, hands down!
There you go with stupid false allegations against ACORN . Has somebody from that organization been to jail , no way . There has been more republicans in jail for fraud and corruption like Mike Carona .
There you are!
So where have you been? Too lesiure world; harrassing the elderly as usual!
Mr. Naui,
Please open your nice big brown eyes and see that just because someone might call themselves a republican; does not make it so! Infact there are very few real republicans in Orange County!
ACORN is as corrupt as your ideals about white people Mr. Naui!
Mmmm … I wonder what party the city council/city manager were in the City of Bell????
Oh yeah…THEY WERE ALL DEMOCRATS!!!
I agree with Duane.
Phu’s efforts to mobolize the vietnamese base, in turn helps Van Tran.
Lorretta will not lose, there are alot of uncertainty out there but I believe her base will show up and she’ll beat Van Tran to a pulp.
BTW- I called the local Caltrans today and asked them to remove the “big poster sized Van Tran” signs and was surprised to learn that candidates can place their signs on on-ramps or off ramps. I think they have received many calls regarding this issue, according to the reception who assured me that it was okay “as long as they received permission” How the hell , can a candidate receive permission to place their signs on onramps or off ramp fences.(Didn’t say this but thought this?)
Then, to top it off the they had me talk to some PR specialist, sounded more like an intern, who kept telling me to visit the code and mentioned that it allows Tran to places he signs on the State of Califonia property.
luis M wrote:
> I agree with Duane.
>
> Phu’s efforts to mobolize the vietnamese base, in turn helps Van Tran.
>
> Lorretta will not lose, there are alot of uncertainty out there but I believe
> her base will show up and she’ll beat Van Tran to a pulp.
Right now, I’m inclined to think that Loretta will probably win. But I don’t think she’ll “beat Van Tran to a pulp”. It’s possible she’ll barely get re-elected.
There is a lot of anti-incumbent sentiment out there and the Democratic Party base is not enthusiastic about going to the polls and voting for anybody.
Art,
So is Janet still the biggest threat to Democrats? Do you Sean, or any of your other bloggers/ former bloggers contend that Janet is the most dangerous? If Van is about to take the only Democratic seat in the OC doesn’t that refute the statement by you and the “Democrats” who write for your blog?
As a Democrat I have never liked Janet but Van was and is the preeminent threat to Democrats in central OC. I would like to hear a mea culpa from those who said otherwise, especially those who aided and abetted the Van Tran machine.
Perhaps you failed to notice that Janet endorsed Van Tran.
Hoa Van Tran would not have done that, as a Democrat.
The fact that Tran is close to beating Sanchez however is more the fault of Sanchez and her party – they forgot Latino voters and are now paying for it.
Go Tran!! It is time for a change people!!
Here is the inside scoop Van Tran doesn’t want you to know. Public Opinion Strategies, a big GOP biased firm, conducted this poll with 3 Vietnamese voters and 3 Latino voters and the rest white people. What this means is that Tran and Sanchez are neck and neck in the white vote! That’s great for Loretta! There will be twice a much Latino vote as Viet vote, and Tran doesn’t even register on the Latino community. Meanwhile, in the Viet community Loretta is actually consolidating her vote. And, the Salvadorean community endorsed Sanchez yesterday. So Ceci is unglued right now because her base has been taken away.
The reason The OCRegister couldn’t get that polling firm to return calls is that the poll is sooo biased. But, an insider in the GOP who hates Van Tran has passed on the info. Van Tran conducted a poll but didn’t release the #s, because they show what Sanchez knows-she’s pulling away.
in the Viet community Loretta is actually consolidating her vote. And, the Salvadorean community endorsed Sanchez yesterday. So Ceci is unglued right now because her base has been taken away.
MQ says:
And so did Mickey mouse and daisy and of course the very important goofy!
Salvadoreans are not with loretta, she has done nothing for this community and now she is looking for their vote!
p.s. It’s a little too late…14 years too late!!!
Good luck to Van Tran or Cecilia Iglesias…WE WANT CHANGE!
The supposed Salvadorean supporters of Loretta aren’t even from District 47! They are from L.A. county, Oscar Dominguez, Hector Moran, Raul Claros, Isabel Castañeda, they are FMLN knows as the guerilleros. The true Salvadorean supporters from district 47 are with Ceci Iglesias for a change!
You have my vote Ceci!