Tran tied with Sanchez, according to a new poll


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The Van Tran for Congress campaign has just released the results of a poll they commissioned, that shows that “fully 39% of likely voters say they are supporting Van Tran, while 39% are backing Sanchez and 5% siding with Ceci Iglesias (17% undecided).”

The poll also indicates that “Tran’s definite support level is higher than that of Congresswoman Sanchez (30% definitely voting for Tran – 28% definitely voting for Sanchez).”

The 5% Iglesias is commanding is starting to mean a lot in this tight race.  And it will be quite a battle for the 17% undecided voters.

Here are a few more results from the Tran poll:

  • While there are certainly solid ethnic coalitions in this race – Asian and Vietnamese voters siding with Tran, Latinos favoring Sanchez – Tran enjoys a commanding 34-point lead with White voters in the district (60% Tran – 26% Sanchez).
  • Van Tran also polls strongly with Independent voters (42% Tran – 28% Sanchez) and older voters (50% Tran – 30% Sanchez) – two groups that are likely going to determine the victor here.
  • Van Tran has a commanding 22-point lead over Sanchez (52% – 30%) among voters who say they are “extremely interested” in the upcoming elections (rate their interest a “10”on a one-to-ten scale). Among a broader high interest segment of the electorate – the “8-10s” – Tran is up eight points (44% – 38%).
  • Van Tran is better positioned from an image perspective. Overall, 43% of voters have a favorable image of Van Tran and 18% are unfavorable towards him (+25 net favorable image rating). By comparison, Loretta Sanchez has a 45% favorable – 36% unfavorable image rating (+9 net favorable). The fact that Sanchez has twice the unfavorables as Tran (with about the same favorables) explains why voters who have an opinion of both candidates are voting for Van Tran by an 18-point margin (54% Tran – 36% Sanchez).

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.  They surveyed 300 likely general election voters in California’s Forty-Seventh Congressional District. The telephone survey was conducted October 13-14, 2010 and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.

In related news, the OC Democrats blog is reporting that Sanchez has raised almost a million more than Tran, who has less than $3ooK cash on hand.

Both Tran and Sanchez got boosts last week from visits by Bill Clinton and Sarah Palin.


About Art Pedroza