As a participant in John Zogby’s political polls I thought I would provide input from “another” reputable source. “Polly the Parrot”
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2006 8:08 AM
Subject: Read what Polly says about U. S. House elections
Dear Forecasters,
“Polly, the parrot who made an accurate forecast of the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, has issued a forecast for the U. S. House of Representatives election this coming November. Like any parrot, Polly listens to everything and repeats back without thinking. Her one special skill is that she combines what she hears.
See
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PollySaysNo.html#Pollysays
Scott Armstrong (on behalf of Polly)
—
J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing, 747 Huntsman, The Wharton School, U. of PA, Phila,
PA 19104 http://www.jscottarmstrong.com home phone 610 622 6480 Home
address: 645 Harper Ave., Drexel Hill, PA 19026 Fax at school: 215 898 2534
Will the Republicans retain their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this year? Polly says “No”.
Alfred G. Cuzán
October 12, 2006 Polly is back! Over the last few weeks, our peripatetic parrot has been collecting forecasts on the November 7th elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. The Republicans are presently in the majority, as they have been for the last twelve years. They have not enjoyed such continuous control over the chamber since the 1920s (see Figure 1).
It appears, however, that this run is about to end. As Table 1 shows, all but three of the eleven forecasts Polly has collected this year are calling for a Democratic victory next month. Averaging across these predictions, a procedure that has been shown to increase forecasting accuracy (Armstrong 2001), one arrives at the Pollyseat. Its value is 18, or three more than what the Democrats need to retake the House. (Since only one representative is not affiliated with either party, almost invariably a Republican loss is a Democratic gain and vice-versa.)
As well as reviewing what forecasters and other experienced elections watchers have seen in their crystal balls, Polly has kept her eye on two prediction markets. These are the Iowa Electronic Markets and Tradesports.com. Displayed in Figure 2 are the contract prices on the Republicans holding on to their majority. These prices are interpreted as probabilities. Averaging the two, Polly has computed her own Pollybility. The very latest calculation (computed with the closing prices of October 11th) shows the Republicans with only a 0.40 chance of retaining control. In sum, based on all she has learned, with three weeks of campaigning still to go, Polly predicts that the Democrats will emerge as the winners, albeit with a narrow majority.
REFERENCE
Armstrong, J. Scott (2001) Combining Forecasts, in Principles of Forecasting, Kluwer, pp. 417-439. “
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