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Headlines first:

1. Anaheim District 3:  Dr. Jose Moreno still up 44 over Jordan Brandman as 4 new ballots counted
2. SD 29: Josh Newman now leads by 2,539 votes in OC and 1,394 overall
3. CA-49: Doug Applegate appears to be running out of votes against Darrell Issa
4. SAUSD: Angie Cano has rebounded and is catching up to Alfonso Alvarez
5. Anaheim District 1: Denise Barnes won this days ago — but we were waiting for no concession call
6. We call every other race except for Measure OO

Denise Barnes (with Tom Tait): Lucky in her friends; no less lucky in her enemies!

That up there is what you really need to know; now let’s go to our normal procedures for these (week)daily election updates, starting with … What’s Left to Count!:

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 22, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Monday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 69,718 (had been 62,003 in Monday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 60,282 (had been 67,997 in Monday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,174 (had been 141,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 144,547 (had been 144,547 in Monday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 627 (had been 627 in Monday’s report)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 27,000)

Total election day paper ballots counted: 26,944 (had been 25,658)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 56

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Monday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 13,938 (unchanged)

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 262 (unchanged)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 61,649 ballots remain to be counted = 

422 early VBMs + 627 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
56 paper ballots + 60,282 provisional ballots

NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT there are unconfirmed rumors that, while the above figures are believed to be current, the ROV’s office may be at least one full day behind in reporting the results of counted ballots.  In other words, the above may be good estimates of what was counted by 5:00 today, but it does not follow that all of the data derived from those counted ballots are reflected in these number.  It may be that ballots that were counted today will not appear until tomorrow’s count — or conceivably even later.  I would consider asking Neal Kelley to clarify this, but he has enough problems with his office now having become a raucous and packed “Politics Central” for anyone interested in this year’s races — particularly AD-55, SD-29, CA-49, and Anaheim City Council.

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

855 early VBMs + 0 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
1,286 paper ballots + 7,715 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

• THIS WAS A HIGHER PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY
• OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 1,367 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS AND 60,282 ARE PROVISIONALS
• THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
• (Of course in specific elections, like SD-29 and Anaheim Districts 1 & 3, it might have been much more heavily provisional ballots — but it’s not clear who among people talking knows for sure!)
• IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE FIVE DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 12,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE

And one more thing:

I, at least, do not know whether ballots that have been challenged were opened, tabulated, and included in today’s totals, or whether they are still being set aside and waiting to be counted, or something in between!  This is CRUCIAL to know when it comes to races like Anaheim’s District 3!  UPDATE: Unconfirmed rumors are that challenged ballots have been opened and tabulated.

(WHEW!  Confused?  We sure are!)

NEXT:  Here’s a reminder of what 22 races we’re still following (and, in some cases, will call today) and those 13 initially unsettled races that we have already called:

1. CA-49
2. SD-29
3. AD-65   [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
4. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
5. South OC CCD Seat 4  [outcome called for Terri Whitt]
6. Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]
7. Irvine USD, third spot
8. Santa Ana USD, third spot
9. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]
10. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
11. Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [outcome called for Norm Westwell]
12. Westminster Elementary, second spot
13. County Supervisor, District 1
14. Anaheim District 1
15. Anaheim District 3
16. Brea Treasurer
17. Costa Mesa Council, third spot
18. Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]
19. Garden Grove, District 6
20. Laguna Beach Council, second spot
21. Lake Forest Council, second spot
22. Los Alamitos Council, second spot
23. Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]
24. Placentia Council, third spot [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]
25. San Clemente Council, second spot
26. Seal Beach, District 2
27. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
28. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
29. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
30. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
31. El Toro Water, third spot
32. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
33. MWDOC Division 4
34. Measure GG
35. Measure OO

And away we go!

CA-49

BEFORE

NOW

Issa’s lead falls by about another 1,000 from 4,388 to 3,234.  OC added only 416 votes and seems to be sipping fumes; San Diego counted 10,842 and seems not to be about to run out.  Martin Wisckol reports that he was told that there are only 6,000 San Diego ballots left;  if so, Applegate would need 77% of them.  Today he got 5,842 to 4,584  for Issa, which is a tad over 56%.  As we skew evermore towards provisions, 75% is a lot — but maybe not impossible. More likely, San Diego could have erred in giving Wisckol the 6,000 figure.  And more likely still — neither, and Applegate loses by about 2,500.  Still, we’re not calling it yet.

SD-29

That’s what OC looks like.  Here’s what the tri-county count looks like:

BEFORE

AFTER

Newman picks up about 500 more votes in OC (to lead by over 2,500) and 56 in LA.  He now leads by 1,394 overall.  It’s hard to imagine that trend reversing.  We’re not calling it only because we’re going to follow it anyway.

AD-65   [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]

Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5

South OC CCD Seat 4  [outcome called for Terri Whitt]

Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]

Irvine USD, third spot

Santa Ana USD, third spot

Angie Cano now trails Alfonso Alvarez by only 141.  She was behind 183 on Friday afternoon and 146 on Monday afternoon.  So she’s probably not going to catch up — but only probably.  We’re not calling it because 4,000 or so votes were tabulated yesterday and the race is still too fluid.

Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]

Centralia Elementary, Seat 3

Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [outcome called for Norm Westwell]

Westminster Elementary, second spot

County Supervisor, District 1

Anaheim District 1

Denise Barnes led by 291 votes Monday night and she leads by 288 today.  Only 83 votes were tabulated today, so that looks pretty definitive.  (Has Lodge called to concede?)  We’re continuing to follow this, because we like to!

Anaheim District 3

Everyone except Jennifer Rivera added exactly one vote today.  So 44 remains 44.  It’s over, but we’ll continue to follow it.

Brea Treasurer

Costa Mesa Council, third spot

Few votes continue to trickle in.  We’re calling it for Allan Mansoor.

Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]

Garden Grove, District 6

Laguna Beach Council, second spot

Lake Forest Council, second spot

We’re calling it for Dwight Robinson.  But Nick will be back!

Los Alamitos Council, second spot

We’re calling it for Richard Murphy.  It’s back to the watermelon field for Dean Grose!

Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]

Placentia Council, third spot [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]

San Clemente Council, second spot

We’re calling this one for Steven Swartz.

Seal Beach, District 2

Villa Park Council, first AND second spots

We’re calling this one for Vince Rossini and Robbie Pitts.

Yorba Linda Council, third spot

We’re calling this one for Beth Haney.

Rossmoor Community Services, third spot

Midway City Sanitary, second spot

We’re calling this one for Chi Charlie Nguyen.

El Toro Water, third spot

We’re calling this one for Mark Monin.

Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement

MWDOC Division 4

Measure GG

Measure OO

Nope, we’re NOT calling this one yet.  “YES” added 87 votes yesterday, “NO” added 90; “NO” has the trend and the margin is 37.  San Clemente is still counting — which, incidentally, is bad news for Doug Applegate.