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Josh Newman can coast the rest of the way into the State Senate.
We’re putting the headline news — the new results themselves — out here on the fly; we’ll add to it and dress it up later.
- CA-49 — Darrell Issa’s lead in OC remains at 1,500, eclipsing Doug Applegate’s 1,000-vote lead in San Diego
- SD-29 — Josh Newman pulls even with Ling-Ling Chang IN ORANGE COUNTY, all but assuring a victory
- AD-65 — Sharon Quirk-Silva secures her win against Young Kim; the only question is by how much
- Santa Ana USD — Alfonso Alvarez overtakes Angie Cano for the third seat on the School Board
- Anaheim CC District 1 — Denise Barnes pulls further away from Steve Lodge, leads by over 250
- Anaheim CC District 3 — Dr. Jose Moreno cuts Jordan Brandman’s lead to 62; may exclude provisionals
- Costa Mesa — Jay Humphrey is under 50 behind Steve Mensinger, who is 500 behind Allan Mansoor
- Fullerton — Jesús Silva closes out his win over Larry Bennett, and may edge into 2nd place
Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 17, 5 p.m.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 396,680 (had been 374,397; peaked at 424,397)
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 274,652 (had been 211,619 in Wednesday’s report)
Total Estimated Left to Count: 122,028 (had been 162,778 in Wednesday’s report)
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 91,529 (was 35,718)
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 4,277
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 108,000 in Wednesday’s report)
Total provisionals counted: 35,894 (had been 5,044 in Wednesday’s report)
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 94,106
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 134,174 (I’d had this at 184,174)
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 133,046 (had been 115,046 in Wednesday’s report)
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 1,128 (had been 19,128 in Wednesday’s report)
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500
Total election day paper ballots counted: 245 (had been 0)
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,255
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 13,917 in Wednesday’s report)
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 13,938 (had been 0)
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 262 (had been 13,917)
To make that easier to grasp at a glance: 122,028 estimated ballots remaining to be counted =
4,277 early VBMs + 1,128 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
22,255 paper ballots + 94,106 provisional ballots
NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT there are unconfirmed rumors that, while the above figures are believed to be current, the ROV’s office may be at least one full day behind in reporting the results of counted ballots. In other words, the above may be good estimates of what was counted by 5:00 today, but it does not follow that all of the data derived from those counted ballots are reflected in these number. It may be that ballots that were counted today will not appear until tomorrow’s count — or conceivably even later. I would consider asking Neal Kelley to clarify this, but he has enough problems with his office now having become a raucous and packed “Politics Central” for anyone interested in this year’s races — particularly AD-55, SD-29, CA-49, and Anaheim City Council.
AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEARURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!
55,811 early VBMs + 18,000 VBMs returned at polls + 13,938 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
245 paper ballots + 30,850 provisional ballots
So, in other words:
- THIS WAS NOT A HUGE PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY.
- TOMORROW WILL BE, BUT TODAY WAS NOT.
- (ALTHOUGH RESULTS TOMORROW’S HUGE HAUL OF PROVISIONALS MAY NOT BE REPORTED UNTIL MONDAY.)
- THIS WAS A HUGE “TURNED IN LAST WEEK BEFORE ELECTION, AT-THE-POLLS, AND LATE ENOUGH TO COME IN POST-ELECTION” VBM BALLOT DAY!
- (Of course in specific elections, like SD-29, AD-65, and Anaheim Districts 1 & 3, it might have been much more heavily provisional ballots — but it’s not clear who knows for sure!)
And one more thing:
I, at least, do not know whether ballots that have been challenged were opened, tabulated, and included in today’s totals, or whether they are still being set aside and waiting to be counted, or something in between! This is CRUCIAL to know when it comes to races like Anaheim’s District 3!
(WHEW! Confused? We sure are!)
NEXT: Here’s a reminder of what 22 races we’re still following (and, in some cases, will call today) and those 13 initially unsettled races that we have already called:
- CA-49
- SD-29
- AD-65 √
- Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [outcome called for Claudia Alvarez]
- South OC CCD Seat 4
- Brea Olinda USD, third spot √
- Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
- Santa Ana USD, third spot
- Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 √
- Centralia Elementary, Seat 3 [outcome called for Liz Gonzalez]
- Ocean View Elementary, second spot √
- Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
- County Supervisor, District 1 [outcome called for Andrew Do]
- Anaheim District 1
- Anaheim District 3
- Brea Treasurer [outcome called for Rick Rios]
- Costa Mesa Council, third spot
- Fullerton Council, third spot √
- Garden Grove, District 6 [outcome called for Kim Bernice Nguyen
- Laguna Beach Council, second spot [outcome called for Steve Dicterow]
- Lake Forest Council, second spot
- Los Alamitos Council, second spot
- Newport Beach, District 5
- Placentia Council, third spot
- San Clemente Council, second spot
- Seal Beach, District 2 [outcome called for Thomas Moore]
- Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
- Yorba Linda Council, third spot
- Rossmoor Community Services, third spot [outcome called for Michael Maynard]
- Midway City Sanitary, second spot
- El Toro Water, third spot
- Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement [outcome called for Al Nederhood]
- MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]
- Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]
- Measure OO
And away we go!
CA-49
And — OC, SD, then the total votes and percentages:
| Issa | 43,465 | 85,050 | 128,515 | 50.9824% | |
| Applegate | 28,332 | 95,230 | 123,562 | 49.0176% |
OC is still the big problem for Doug Applegate’s bid against Darrell Issa. A 10,000 vote lead down there can’t overcome a 15,000 lead up here.
SD-29
|
That is JUST IN ORANGE COUNTY!!! Here’s the overall tri-county story (OC, St Berdoo, LA, totals & %):
| Chang | 106,755 | 14,627 | 18,071 | 139,453 | 50.2562% |
| Newman | 106,420 | 12,305 | 19,306 | 138,031 | 49.7438% |
I’m hearing all sorts of different conflicting reports about what is to come — but LA reports tomorrow afternoon (it’s on a twice-weekly schedule) — and my guess is that it will push Newman into the lead eventually, whether or not it happens tomorrow. He’s going to do well in provisionals all around. But we’re not going to call it for him while he’s behind!
AD-65
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
With a 5% lead that’s been growing for days, there’s no reason to delay: we’re calling it for Sharon Quirk-Silva.
Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [outcome called for Claudia Alvarez]
South OC CCD Seat 4
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
This race has been very stable since Election Day. We’re not calling it yet, but that’s just based on a hunch that it may tighten.
Brea Olinda USD, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
This race has been stable since Election Day, with Todd slipping more than Hobby. Kraft has risen slightly, but just seems to be too far back. Todd doesn’t seem the type to be saved by provisionals. We’re done here; we’re calling it for Kevin Hobby.
Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
Santa Ana USD, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Late-charging Dr. Alfonso Alvarez broke from the pack days ago and has finally passed Angie Cano in the race for the final seat. We’re not going to call it yet, but we have no reason to believe that the forces that carried him along this week will end before the election does.
Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
It’s not that much of a lead yet, but given her momentum it would be very surprising to see Irene Castaneda’s lead reversed. So we’ll call it for her now.
Centralia Elementary, Seat 3 [outcome called for Liz Gonzalez]
Ocean View Elementary, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
While Westwell had his worst day relative to Singer in a while, the margin is too great and Singer spent 2,500 ballots to pick up about 60. That math won’t work. We’ll call it for Norm Westwell — and hope that we’re wrong!
Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
County Supervisor, District 1 [outcome called for Andrew Do]
Anaheim District 1
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Barnes only beat Lodge by 301 to 289 today, but we’re calling it for Denise Barnes not so much due to a knockout blow but because she’s maintaining a healthy 254-vote lead, Lodge shows no sign of catching up, and the race is running out of ballots.
Anaheim District 3
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Plenty of us were hoping to see Moreno pass Brandman today after his outstanding advance yesterday. But ballot counting takes time, the recording of tallied votes takes time, and we’re just going to keep the faith. The trend is in Moreno’s favor and there are probably enough votes left to allow it to play out.
Brea Treasurer [outcome called for Rick Rios]
Costa Mesa Council, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Mansoor is fading slowly — very slowly — and Humphrey is putting himself into position to be the one who can catch him. But we doubt that Mansoor falling quickly enough for that.
Fullerton Council, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
It’s starting to look like Jesús Silva won’t get the third spot for Fullerton City Council at all. He may get the second spot, pushing Bruce Whitaker to third. No matter — they’ll both be on the City Council and Larry Bennett won’t. We’re calling it for Jesús Silva.
Garden Grove, District 6 [outcome called for Kim Bernice Nguyen
Laguna Beach Council, second spot [outcome called for Steve Dicterow]
Lake Forest Council, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Adam Nick narrows the lead a bit, so we’ll leave this one up — but he’s going to have to do a lot better than this.
Los Alamitos Council, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Dean Grose falls behind by over 100! Do we call it — like we want to? No, no — we’ll wait to be sure!
Newport Beach, District 5
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Both front-runners lost votes to Glenn today. It’s almost over — but it’s not yet over….
Placentia Council, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Shader is clearly going to win this, given her momentum, but the margin is still too small to call it. And I don’t mind checking in again to see what happens.
San Clemente Council, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Swartz picks up 329 to Bane’s 313. I’m not ready to call this one yet.
Seal Beach, District 2 [outcome called for Thomas Moore]
Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
|
Not much movement here today.
Yorba Linda Council, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Haney picks up 417; Young picks up 432. Not calling it today!
Rossmoor Community Services, third spot [outcome called for Michael Maynard]
Midway City Sanitary, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Chi Charlie is moving away from Neugebauer, but the progress is slow, like they’re running through molasses. He picked up 662; she added 534.
El Toro Water, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Monin picks up 313; Freshley gains 337. Not over, though Monin’s in good shape.
Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement [outcome called for Al Nederhood]
MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]
Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]
Measure OO
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Yes picks up a tad — and we are done until Friday at 5 p.m.!
*Dr. D., you are doing wonderful work and are a real resource about the length and drift of how elections really go. Thank you very much!
*In other news: How about that Jeff Sessions…the new to be AG……no wonder: He
never responded to any of our e-mails…..he is special.
About the election coverage: thanks. I think that someone has to keep track of what happens day to day, and no one else seems inclined to do it.
About Sessions: follow me to the new Weekend Open Thread.
And Jose and Jordan are exactly tied now! 4370 votes each, for 35.7% each!
Jordy got 187 new votes since yesterday, the Doc got 248!
I’d say Jose has the Jose-mentum, if they’re still gonna be counting.
I’m starting to believe that God is in His Heaven, and all’s right with the world – after all.
Sacramento is taking its time changing the Josh-Lying figures, but in OC he is now AHEAD!
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 113,013 50.2%
LING LING CHANG (REP) 112,001 49.8%
Josh jumped 1300 in OC today. He also gained in SB County where Ding-a-ling² was leading by a couple thousand.
The Ding-a-ling² lead is now just a couple hundred across three counties.
End of day Monday it should be over.
PS I don’t know where Josh is getting this, since the SOS hasn’t updated, but he says he’s now only 187 VOTES down in the 3 counties, and that’s in comparison with 1,040 something yesterday! JOSHMENTUM!
The Buena Park School Board Race, as of Friday, 11/18/16 @ 5 PM…now stands at:
Irene Castaneda —- 821
L. Carole Jensen — 717
50-something-year-old, four-term Republican, L. Carole Jensen is one of a very small number of incumbents to lose their seats. She had a 10 vote lead on election night…but is now getting schooled. Jensen had voted against putting a Bond Election on the ballot. It passed the School Board 4 to 1. Jensen was the sole dissenting vote. THEN…the voters passed the Bond…and Carole was touting its great benefits. The opposition, led by 28-year-old Irene Castaneda, pointed-out that hypocrisy.
THIS WAS A VERY BIG WIN for the new president of the Buena Park Teacher’s Association, a 51-year-old Torrance native and Long Beach resident, who has taught middle school social studies in Buena Park for about two decades. She’s a 1987 UC Berkeley alumna, who interned — [in her youth] — for Congressman Mel Levine, Congresswoman Jackie Speier, and Assemblyman Tom Hayden. SHE KNOWS HOW TO RUN GOOD CANDIDATES…AND…HOW TO WIN.
I have to ask, of course — what is this new BPTA President’s name?