Top2 #3: Spring Sprang; GOP Trap Sprung?

Do click https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/california#google_vignette for raw poll results!

Top2 #1 is here; Top2 #2 is here

[Initial note: I re-read the fine print and realized that the above link will factor in as many as five different polls from separate pollsters, so Chad Bianco’s weirdly high result in one poll remains on the list until they poll again or someone new knocks them off. Regardless, that poll is a month old — and stale. PPIC’s results seem to favor Porter — it’s first poll was extremely high; its second poll put her one point below Bianco in second, which suggests a “house effect” (a usually unintended bias.) That one is stale as well and is approaching the boneyard.]

The big news in the polling average is that, as of early last week, the two Republicans are still in the lead. Hilton is at 15.6%, Bianco at 14.6 %, with Swalwell next at 14.0%. 270toWin also reports from the betting markets, which predict that Democrats will coalesce behind Swalwell, with his likeliest opponent being Hilton. Despite Steyer’s taking repeated aim at Swalwell and whiffing, I’m starting to think that that may be the correct answer.

Here’s where things stand now:

TOP2 #3 results

REPUBLICANS

• 15.6% Steve Hilton [age 56] (up 0.3%)
• 14.6% Chad Bianco [age 58] (down 1.7%!)
  • This still includes the outlying 23% score in one minor poll, without which he’d be at 12.5%

GREEN?

• 2.0%? Butch Ware [age 51-52]

Ware was disqualified by Democratic Secretary of State Shirley Weber for reportedly failing to redact a telephone number in some document. He’s challenging this and his status is now uncertain. Peace & Freedom also has a candidate, but he or she has not been included in these polls. Also: Ware has 2% in just one poll, and was apparently absent from others, so frankly this reporting doesn’t make sense to me.

DEMOCRATS

• 14.0% Eric Swalwell [age 45] (down 0.3%)
• 11.4% Katie Porter [age 65] (down 0.3%)
• 10.4% Tom Steyer [age 72] (up 1.4%!)
• 4.2% Xavier Becerra [age 68] (up 0.2%)
• 3.8% Antonio Villaraigosa [age 73] (up 0.1%)
• 3.0% Matt Mahan [age 43] (up 0.3%)
• 2.4% Betty Yee [age 68] (down 0.6%)
• 1.2% Tony Thurmond [age 57] (down 1.5)
• 1.0% Ian Calderon [age 40] (up 0.3%) [has now endorsed Swalwell]

Democrats are down a little under half a point in aggregate, but that’s mostly Thurmond’s collapse and Yee’s erosion. Steyer has had the sort of rise he needed, perhaps due to a media push and his attacks on Steyer — though I expect that since then they won’t matter much.

THE RESULTS FROM BACK IN TOP2 #2:

Here is where the polls stood in our second installment, Top2 #2:

REPUBLICANS

• 15.3% Steve Hilton [age 56]
• 16.3% Chad Bianco [age 58]

GREEN

• 2.0% Butch Ware [age 51-52]

DEMOCRATS

• 14.3% Eric Swalwell [age 45]
• 11.7% Katie Porter [age 65]
• 9.0% Tom Steyer [age 72]
• 4.0% Xavier Becerra [age 68]
• 3.7% Antonio Villaraigosa [age 73]
• 3.0% Betty Yee [age 68]
• 2.7% Matt Mahan [age 43]
• 1.7% Tony Thurmond [age 57]
• 0.7% Ian Calderon [age 40] [has now endorsed Swalwell]

Some Interpretation!

This does not look like a good week for Dems, based on these numbers.

On the good side, Bianco is dropping, and will likely drop more as stale results expire.

On the bad side, he’s still 0.6% ahead of the third-place Democrat.

On the bad side, no other Republicans are cutting into the duopoly’s lead — meaning that their expected vote share will likely be closer to 20% each rather than 15% — and higher if they run an intelligent ad campaign targeting the frontrunners and promoting the hopeless cases.

On the bad side, Democrats seem no closer to coalescing behind one or two candidates who can exceed one or two of the leading Republican candidates. Steyer, in 3rd place, is intensifying his determination, including slagging Swalwell, rather than trying to work out an arrangement with, most likely, Katie Porter.

Also on the bad side, Matt Mahan is picking up enough steam for him to think that he and his Silicon Valley backers can fund his staying in the race — even though it comes at the expense of the leading Democrat, Swalwell. The betting markets like Mahan — a less liberal Silicon Valley type than Swalwell — probably because Silicon Valley interests are disproportionately likely to put money into betting markets.

(Mahan, by the way, was invited into the candidate debate, despite the exclusion of candidates like Becerra and Villaraigosa with higher polling numbers. As this added yet another white male into the mix, it added fuel to the fire for arguments that the party was being intentionally racist, excluding all but white makes and Katie Porter. And … it’s hard for me to spin that otherwise!)

Further bad news: Thurman, despite losing over half his previous support, remains in the race.

Further bad news: Yee, despite losing 20% of her previous support and continued anemic fundraising, remains in the race.

Worse news: Yeee, like Thurmond, cites bigotry in favor of white males, rather than their own anemic polling numbers, as the reason they are being kept out of the debate upcoming debate — a huge boost for Republicans who might get an Italian whose last name is both Italian and Spanish into the runoff.

Is there any more good news for Democrats in these poll results? Yes, it’s this:

This can’t last forever! And popular derision of the hopeless candidates who won’t quit the race may be the only way to get them to loosen their grip! Join the Movement of Disdain!

Unfortunately, the question is whether this impasse can last long enough to screw up the Democratic Party chances of getting one — not to mention two — candidates into that 20-point range. And candidates convincing them that this is all about bigotry, not popularity, is likely to harden their hearts.

So I have to say — it feels to me like this insanity can outlast our chances.