Tony Strickland’s victory party, picture stolen from the “OC Independent.” If you want to know what the sort of people who would celebrate the victory of this valueless twat, if you wanna know what they look like, here you have it. Why are so many of them stained with blue paint, as though they had robbed a bank that uses exploding paint bags, we can only postulate. The result was not surprising, but it woulda been nice to see a stronger reaction to MAGA’s carnage in SD 36.
Original Post(s) 2/25-28
8:05 PM – OC has its first results (but remember SOME of this district is in LA county… and probably more Democratic… although that really looks like a small portion of a huge district.
The most important question tonight is, will Tony break 50% tonight, and right now he’s just barely failing!
Pretty damn CLOSE to 50% though… but if past is prologue, these early votes are the MOST Republican, so don’t be surprised to see Tony falter, choke, sweat profusely, slow down to a quick walk, while the worthy and stalwart Jimmy Pham starts the long process of gaining on him.
Back at 9:30, OR as soon as LA and/or Sacramento get their act together – remember, they don’t have the estimable Bob Page at the helm!
8:29 LA results are in and as expected Strickland is ahead but not by as much as in OC. That is Artesia, Cerritos and Hawaiian Gardens. THERE, Tony’s at only 39%, JULIE DIEP (!) in second at 26.1%, Jimmy at 25.35%. So the two Dems added together much higher than Tony… but of course this is just LA. Lemme do the math because the sluggards in Sacramento still haven’t.
OK. Taking LA into account, Tony has 49.26% altogether. (And the two Viet Dems added together have 43%. How will Briscoe voters vote in April, who knows? Who are they? But John has 7.6%.)
9:30 pm
Oooh! This is close – this is exactly what Tony needs to finish the race tonight. But 1) it won’t stay here and 2) especially not when we factor in LA. Here’s OC at 9:30:
Sacramento is snoozing, LA is laying about, but Bob Page’s OC registrar promises another update at 10pm, so I’ll stay up to get that to you.
OK meanwhile they woke up in Sacramento and did the math so I don’t have to: between both counties Tony is now at 49.5%:
10pm
Uh-oh!
That was OC. And here’s everything, as of now, from the State. LA apparently is only making a difference of minus half a percent in Tony’s numbers. If a lot of late votes over the next few days don’t come in Democrat, Tony’s got this.
Good night! We’ll take this up again at 5pm tomorrow (Wednesday) …..
Wednesday Results
Not much change. Tony gained MICROSCOPICALLY in OC, but lost a tenth of a percent overall. 51.0% now.
UPDATE Thu morning – Sacramento had not updated or something, they’re saying 51.1% now, again.
What’s left to count? Do we Dems have any chance? Is this worth looking at any more? Well… look what I found! (Learned from Greg)
Total Ballots Left to Process
[IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Ballot estimates will expand as eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) are received via USPS and ballots deposited in official drop boxes (prior to 8PM on Election Night) are received and processed. Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.]
- Total estimated number of ballots processed (after Election Day): 10,589
- Total Estimated Left to process: 14,597 [Wow – that’s a lot left!]
Vern: I am just going to post the categories in which there are a LOT of ballots left to count:
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Process
- Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers processed: 0
- Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 5,007
*Eligible Ballots received after Election Day Left to Process
- Total eligible ballots processed: 0
- Total estimated number of eligible ballots left to process: 1,873
*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Process
- Total eligible final drop box pickups processed: 0
- Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to process: 7,006
So if I’m understanding that right, there’s a total of 14,597 ballots left to count, while Tony is only 1206 1504 votes ahead of the magic 50% mark. So we shall keep checking each afternoon…
Thursday 5pm
Tony’s percentage in OC has gone up a little, almost to 52%. Meanwhile the ROV has found EVEN MORE “estimated” number of votes coming in after election day – for 18.381 “processed” and 9055 ballots LEFT to process.
And 50% of the votes counted so far is 75,528. And so far Tony has 76,840. So Tony is 1412 ahead, while there are 9055 ballots left to process. These are the two important numbers right now.
Friday
It’s gone, gone, not coming back. Time to change the title of this post, the featured image and prose at the top. Fat-ass MAGAt won.
Willie the weenie is going to sleep happy. Florice “I look like [entertainment-related reference deleted]” Hoffman not so much.
Maybe. Probably. Tony’s 1443 votes ahead of his magic 50% goal, but how many votes will still be trickling in?
The rule of thumb that red votes come in more quickly than blue ones still stands. As I recall, they pull vote-by-mail ballots dropped off at vote centers for early processing to get a jump on things, and so that number trends red because Republicans tend to be more organized and punctual than last-minute-running-around Democrats and independents. No guarantees, of course, but that could easily be worth a couple of points or more in the final numbers.
Has the DPOC really been as quiet about GOTV in this race as it seems? Because that’s a big factor.
We need to elect Chris Kluwe to office. He can be our own local Jasmine Crockett!
Florice’s physical appearance is very far down on the list of issues we’ve had with her. Don’t say that again here because — given you treat\ this as your own editorial page, as if you speak for this blog — her supporters will focus on your bullshit.
Don’t censor peoples posts
I remember your “post” (comment.) It was stupid. You thought Greg was ridiculing Florice’s appearance because you’re a shitty reader – he was actually defending her. So your comment was stupid, and I thought I’d save you the embarrassment of printing it. But here we are. Good day to you, shitty reader.
(Comment copied from the pre-race post to this more appropriate locale.)
https://ocvote.gov/results/whats-left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count
Registrar’s “What’s Left to Count” page says: 16,307 ballots left to process.
(As you’ll see, that 16,307 number is likely to grow as late-mailed VBMs trickle in.)
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to process
Total vote-by-mail ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 5,554
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Process
Total ballots from Drop Boxes processed: 0
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 5,474
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Process
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers processed: 0
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 5,007
Duplicated Ballot Left to Process
Total ballots to be duplicated processed: 0
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to process: 164
*Eligible Ballots received after Election Day Left to Process
Total eligible ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of eligible ballots left to process: 0
Conditional Voter Registrations and Provisional Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots left to process: 108
They’re moving along slowly but surely and Check it out – there’s a total of 14,597 ballots left to count, while Tony is only
12061504 votes ahead of the magic 50% mark. So we shall keep checking each afternoon…I’m not sure if these were the figures from today or yesterday, but here they are.
Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.
Total estimated number of ballots processed (after Election Day): 18,381
Total Estimated Left to process: 9,055
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to process
Total vote-by-mail ballots processed: 5,437
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 117
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Process
Total ballots from Drop Boxes processed: 5,359
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 115
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Process
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers processed: 3,050
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 1,957
Duplicated Ballot Left to Process
Total ballots to be duplicated processed: 160
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to process: 4
*Eligible Ballots received after Election Day Left to Process
Total eligible ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of eligible ballots left to process: 4,123
Conditional Voter Registrations and Provisional Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots processed: 108
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots left to process: 0
*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible final drop box pickups processed: 4,267
Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to process: 2,739
RAVBM Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible RAVBM ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to process: 0
I’ll update it if it changes.
This was Los Angeles, also as of 3:47 p.m. today, which I presume was not the final count. (But I suppose it could be.)
Julie Diep (DEM)
LA 1,730, 25.5%; TOTAL 20,608, 14.5%
Jimmy D. Pham (DEM)
LA 1,795, 26.5%; TOT 38,920, 27.4%
John Briscoe (REP)
LA 584, 8.6%; TOT 9,952, 7.0%
Tony Strickland (REP)
LA 2,664, 39.3%; 72,488, 51.1%
Looks like it’s pretty much over.
The status after Thursday’s count: 149,709 votes cast: 50% mark is 74,855.
This shows LA, with the larger numbers being the districtwide totals.
Candidate County Votes District Votes
Julie Diep (DEM): 1,730, 25.5%; 21,365, 14.3%
Jimmy D. Pham (DEM): 1,795, 26.5%; 41,181, 27.5%
John Briscoe (REP): 584, 8.6%; 10,223, 6.8%
Tony Strickland (REP): 2,664, 39.3%; 76,940, 51.4%
As for “WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT”:
Total estimated number of ballots processed (after Election Day): 18,381
Total Estimated Left to process: 9,055
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to process
Total vote-by-mail ballots processed: 5,437
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 117
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Process
Total ballots from Drop Boxes processed: 5,359
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 115
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Process
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers processed: 3,050
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 1,957
Duplicated Ballot Left to Process
Total ballots to be duplicated processed: 160
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to process: 4
*Eligible Ballots received after Election Day Left to Process
Total eligible ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of eligible ballots left to process: 4,123
Conditional Voter Registrations and Provisional Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots processed: 108
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots left to process: 0
*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible final drop box pickups processed: 4,267
Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to process: 2,739
RAVBM Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible RAVBM ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to process: 0
Fresh off depresses!
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
TONY STRICKLAND (REP) 78,058 51.85%
JIMMY D. PHAM (DEM) 41,769 27.74%
JULIE DIEP (DEM) 20,780 13.80%
JOHN BRISCOE (REP) 9,945 6.61%
Sec State gives Strickland 51.3% tonight. I won’t pretty it up.
Candidate County Votes District Votes
Julie Diep
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,792
25.7%
22,572
14.3%
Jimmy D. Pham
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,849
26.5%
43,618
27.7%
John Briscoe
(Party Preference: REP)
594
8.5%
10,539
6.7%
Tony Strickland
(Party Preference: REP)
2,746
39.3%
80,804
51.3%
1593 votes left to process in OC, so it’s almost out of fuel. If there’s any chance, it’s that LA comes in plentiful and strong against Strickland. I don’t recall them having an (excellent) what’s left to vote page there — which I suspect (but don’t know) was Neal Kelley’s own innovation.
Again, this is not prettied up.
Total Ballots Left to Process
Total Ballots Left to Process
*IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Ballot estimates will expand as eligible ballots (mailed on or before Election Day) are received via USPS and ballots deposited in official drop boxes (prior to 8PM on Election Night) are received and processed.
Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.
Total estimated number of ballots processed (after Election Day): 26,067
Total Estimated Left to process: 1,519
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to process
Total vote-by-mail ballots processed: 5,437
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to process: 117
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Process
Total ballots from Drop Boxes processed: 5,359
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to process: 115
*Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Process
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers processed: 4,727
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to process: 280
Duplicated Ballot Left to Process
Total ballots to be duplicated processed: 160
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to process: 4
*Eligible Ballots received after Election Day Left to Process
Total eligible ballots processed: 3,662
Total estimated number of eligible ballots left to process: 611
Conditional Voter Registrations and Provisional Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots processed: 108
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations and provisional ballots left to process: 0
*Final Drop Box Pickup Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible final drop box pickups processed: 6,614
Total estimated number of final drop box pickups left to process: 392
RAVBM Ballots Left to Process
Total eligible RAVBM ballots processed: 0
Total estimated number of RAVBM ballots left to process: 0
Yeah it’s over. We’re stuck with Senator Strickland. I guess it’s time to wrap up the story and change the title.
Strickland is an oaf. He’s better off in Sacramento in the minority party with literally nothing to do and nothing to break. He’ll do far less damage up there than he will with the MAGA idiots in HB.
Yeah, that’s a way to look at it.
As I’ve said, the remaining HB MAGAts should drag that snowflake Tito Ortiz back from Florida, make him Mayor, make the HB Clown Show truly complete.
Tito is smarter than he looks or acted.
Um… no. We have six months of articles (by the REAL “Tito Watch,” edited by me) very much proving otherwise.
I’m talking about him fleeing.
Dems did horribly in this race. They couldn’t find one strong candidate to run against Strickland so they ran two mediocre (at best) candidates and screwed the pooch.
Dems didn’t “run two candidates.” Diep, like Briscoe, is a perennial who’s just gonna run no matter what. And it wasn’t a problem that there were two Dems in this primary, it may have even helped when the only point was to keep Tony under 50.
Just not enough Dems or non-MAGAts bothered voting.
It’s also a bit on CADEM for not having a quorum to properly endorse, along with DPOC for not picking up the slack and helping Pham advertise. Absolutely blew a chance to make Strickland work for it.
Pham was a reasonably good candidate. But he would have needed support to get another 2% of the vote. (A smart party also would have promoted Briscoe — as someone here suggested.)
Thanks. It’s kinda like they didn’t run anyone. And then didn’t get anyone to the polls.
Yeah I saw lotsa SD 36 Democrats on social media going, at the last minute, “What? There’s an election going on?”
More argument, if any were needed, that ALL DEMOCRATS AND OTHER NON-MAGATS SHOULD MAKE A HABIT OF READING THE ORANGE JUICE BLOG.
The unofficial consensus of the DPOC, and to a lesser extent, CADEM, is that HB is basically lost and thus they won’t receive any party support for this kind of stuff. Pisses me off to no extent because these things are absolutely winnable if they are willing to fight for it.
That would be astoundingly stupid.
I’m not saying that it isn’t happening, though.
Well it’s DPOC so it’s fair to say whatever the stupidest decision available is, they will likely do it. I maintain that in this upcoming cycle with strong DPOC support the dems can absolutely take back HB city council. It remains to be seen if they will care enough or if the candidates will be on their own. I’ve heard Carr is considering running.
So they’ll promote two clubs in Irvine and rally at Irvine City Hall like they are all big and bad but can’t endorse on their own (and apparently lacked the funds to support Pham – who I voted for by the way).
Glad to hear that you have a redeeming side.
Lacked funds? They could have raised funds if they were earmarked for this! This was taking down HB!
In Irvine district 1 elections, two republicans were running and neither of them won against a clearly less qualified democrat candidate. The Lincoln club threw a lot of money at one of them and also James Mai. The dems don’t have a Lincoln Club.
In 2006, I pulled papers to run against Chuck Devore. There was nary a Democratic Party infrastructure then. I didn’t even get a phone call from someone asking who i was except the Daily Pilot. Michael Glover didn’t get much more than that if anything.
Michael Glover – I remember him! Who did he run against again? Also Chuck DeVore?
I knew Glover because he came to my group Democracy For America (DFA.) You probably shoulda.
Just looked it up, he ran in 2010, seems longer ago; Melissa beat him in our last Partisan Primary. Then she lost to… would thatta been Choi, or DeVore?
(DeVore, before moving to Texas like all rightwing extremists, used to like commenting on the Liberal OC, crossing little swords with Moderate Liberal Dan.)