“Min Can’t Win.” New Weiss Poll, and Joanna answers some questions!

Pretty clearly, this blog supports the progressive insurgent (with the slight residency wrinkle) Joanna Weiss in the CA-47 race against Scott Baugh, while the ironically-named Liberal OC is clearly in the bag for the corporatist insider (with the slight DUI wrinkle) Dave Min. But which Democrat has a better chance of beating Republican Scott Baugh, given that the overwhelming priority is that Democrats take back the House nationally? Well, Joanna’s team (unsurprisingly) has a new poll contending it’s Joanna! And I had some other questions I wanted to ask her, but first here’s her press release:


Joanna Weiss Is Democrats’ Only Chance to Keep CA-47 Blue

New Poll Confirms that Min Can’t Win

ORANGE COUNTY, CA – Today the Joanna Weiss for Congress campaign released a new poll confirming that she is the strongest general election candidate to take on likely Republican nominee Scott Baugh in November 2024. In a head-to-head general election match up, Weiss bests Baugh, while State Senator Dave Min proves to be an incredibly weak candidate whose recent DUI conviction is deeply concerning to a vast majority of general election voters. Voters are also very troubled by the fact that Min campaigned on a no corporate PAC pledge, and then once in office, accepted over $150,000 dollars in special interest money. 

“Candidate quality matters. The poll demonstrates that Orange County voters choose Joanna Weiss’ grassroots leadership in the community over Dave Min’s longtime record of problematic judgment,” said campaign manager Emma Weinert. “Next November, we must defeat Baugh, a MAGA extremist with a criminal history who refuses to acknowledge that Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election and who supports a national abortion ban. The poll confirms what we have known, that Dave Min can’t win in the primary or the general election. With so much on the line, there is only one leader who will beat back Republican extremism this election  — and that’s Joanna Weiss.”


  • Weiss leads Baugh in a general election match up, while Min trails him. 
  • When voters learn about Min’s damaging record, Baugh beats Min by 12 points.
  • Min’s DUI raises “major doubts” for 66 percent of general election voters, including 71 percent of  No Party Preference voters who are likely to decide the fate of the election.
  • Min’s lie about not accepting corporate PAC money raises “major doubts” for 60 percent of voters.

Community organizer and attorney Joanna Weiss has built a broad coalition of support across Orange County and California, earning endorsements from Representatives Linda Sánchez, Eric Swalwell, Julia Brownley, Sydney Kamlager-Dove, and former Representative Harley Rouda. She also has earned endorsements from EMILYs List, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Controller Malia Cohen, Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris, OC Supervisor Katrina Foley, Orange County Young Democrats, and grassroots leaders throughout the district. Weiss is on the consent calendar to earn the endorsement of the California Young Democrats at their endorsing Convention this weekend.

Weiss has raised over $1.3 million to date. She also has both the most cash on hand and more grassroots donors than her primary opponent. Based upon a recent FEC press release, Weiss is the top nonincumbent woman fundraiser in the country for a House seat in the 2024 election cycle. 


Joanna is a former litigator and Adjunct Professor at Chapman University School of Law where she taught courses on Pre-Trial Civil Procedure and Public Interest Lawyering. Joanna served on the Board of Directors of the Public Law Center for over a decade, winning multiple awards for her legal and community leadership.

As founder of Women for American Values and Ethics (WAVE), Joanna has activated over 2,300 community members to contribute over 50,000 volunteer hours, register over 10,000 students, and raise millions to support candidates and causes in Orange County, CA.

Born and raised in Orange County, Joanna attended Capistrano Valley High School and Saddleback College, graduated from UCLA, and received her JD from USC School of Law. Joanna and her husband Jason love to surf, hike, and volunteer with their three children Leah, Will, and Audrey.


So, Vern here again. I’m no expert on polls but this “checks out” I think. If we’re not hearing a bunch of Republican attacks on “DUI Dave” right now, that’s only because they HOPE he’ll be the Democrat to make it through the March primary – and THAT’S when CA-47 voters will have it beat into their heads so tiresomely that THEY’LL feel like pulling over and stumbling home in the dark.

Joanna’s biggest weakness, which is that she lives a few miles outside the district in San Juan Capistrano, doesn’t approach that level of toxicity. Of course I also like Joanna’s politics better and find her more honest. She is currently looking for a home in the district, even though it’s not necessary for Congress. And technically that will make her a “carpetbagger.” But there are so many degrees of carpetbagging, this being on the least offensive rung, as:

  • She has worked and lived in that Huntington-Newport district for years.
  • Moving there unnecessarily for this race, I think, shows respect to the district.
  • If it’s true that only she can beat Scott Baugh, which I believe, then the 47th District NEEDS her.
  • Finally, how can the Party of Michelle Steel and Young Kim, who don’t even pretend to inhabit their districts, use residency as a cudgel?

Last concern: It’s been bruited about by the Min-pologists at the Liberal OC – mostly anonymous ones of course – that Joanna refused to pledge to support whichever Democrat makes it through the March primary. Yeah I know, consider the source, but I thought I should check and straighten out the record. Well, Joanna, at the time in question, was answering whether she would pledge to support the choice of the state party straw poll, which was a kind of lame thing to ask of her.

She confirms that OF COURSE she will support Min over Baugh if Dave beat her in March. Not to do so would show a Katie Porter-like indifference to which Party controls Congress – wait, those are MY words, not Joanna’s, and did I just say that? Oh well, too late to take it back. I’ll quit while I’m ahead here. VOTE JOANNA!

About Vern Nelson

Greatest pianist/composer in Orange County, and official political troubadour of Anaheim and most other OC towns. Regularly makes solo performances, sometimes with his savage-jazz band The Vern Nelson Problem. Reach at vernpnelson@gmail.com, or 714-235-VERN.