Weekend Open Thread: House Districts Revisited

By
Greg Diamond
– August 21, 2022Posted in: "The OC", Fresh Juice

For this Weekend Open Thread, I invite you to revisit with me some projections that I did eight months ago when the new district lines first arrived. As often happens, my purpose was to pique interest in how our elections might take shape — but they include predictions, so let’s see how I did! The district maps are available at the above link.

CA-38

I said that this district, which includes only La Habra from within OC, would remain Linda Sanchez’s — and that still seems like a safe bet. The charter school-loving Rubio Sisters and the remainders for the Calderon Crime Family are still in wait — but there was no serious Democratic challenge still year, and the second spot went to Walnut Mayor Eric Ching.

CA-40

This district excited me because it made my Eastern OC dream come true: from Chino Hills, eastern Brea, and Yorba Linda all the way through the hills and canyons and unincorporated areas down to Mission Viejo, it seemed like a conservative district well-designed for someone like Greg Raths — whom Vern and I liked a lot more than we do now after his taking photos with Roger Stone and Former Guy. (The latter one can understand, but Roger Stone — man, what was Raths-the-Patriot thinking?) I name-checked about a dozen Republicans and Democrats each — taking time to laugh at The Cook Report giving it only a weak “Likely Republican” rating — and scoffing that their candidate might be super-establishment Young Kim carpetbagging in from Buena Park! (Then I added that it could make sense, but would be a gouge in the eye of the area’s much more populist Republicans.) The Democrat I though would have the best chance in the district was Harley Rouda, who didn’t bite.

I was gloriously wrong about all but one thing! I didn’t foresee Asif Mahmood — the “Crusading Pulmonologist,” the “Breath of Freedom,” the “Iron Lung,” “Dr. Breathewell” (please help me out here, readers!) — being the sole Democrat to run. And sure enough, the Cook’s sources were better than mine: Young Kim did hurtle to the opposite end of the county to try to keep her perch in Congress. She beat Raths by over ten points, finished six behind “Pulmo-Legislator”, and so looked like a good bet to win. Except that being the Lou Correa of the Republican Party doesn’t work as well as being the Lou Correa of the Democratic Party. The populist Republicans (self-styled “Patriots”; think Debra Pauley — and how the hell did she not get a position in the Trump Administration anyway?) not only don’t like the smug supposed centrists like Young Kim — who last I checked won’t say how she feels about Trump and whether Biden won only because of mumble-mumble fraud — but may reason that it would be a lot easier to get “Asiffordable Healthcare” out of Congress in two years than Young Kim, who would grow roots there. So — Likely Republican? (Sigh.) Ask Greg Raths! And that’s what I may have been right about.

CA-45

This was the Asian District that the Redistricters badly wanted — not the one I wanted, which would have included much of North County with Rowland Heights and Hacienda Heights rather than going all the way down to Little Saigon — but it will have done the trick. I went with the conventional wisdom that this would be Michelle Steel vs. Jay Chen — and that was correct. Jay is a familiar presence to those of us in the north of the district, where he lives not far from the county line. Steel is a familiar presence to her neighbors in Rancho Palos Verdes, I imagine less so to her neighbors wherever she purports to live here. This is a massively important race that will depend mostly on donations to Jay Chen and how much activist volunteer efforts — phone-banking and canvassing — he can get, so treat this like control of Congress lies in the balance, because it truly might!

CA-46

I took a wild guess that Lou Correa would run again. I didn’t see any really qualified Republican to challenge him in this district — and sure enough Christopher Gonzalez — who fits the not really qualified bill — emerged. I had hope for a Democratic reformer — I don’t think that I yet knew it would be Mike Ortega — would try for the second Democratic spot (although it would still be tough to beat Correa, who is the de facto Republican candidate). Correa pummeled him and Ortega lost to Gonzalez by 3-1/3 points. I’m not going to endorse against Correa because “control of the House,” but if he wants to try to Manchin his way around I want his committee seats stripped form him immediately. Let him caucus with Republicans if he must.

CA-47

Even more than CA-45, this is the marquee house race in OC. Katie Porter — who had her district redrawn from under her my the mischievous Redistricters — relocated to Seal Beach where she will be challenged by former OCGOP Chair Scott Baugh. I name-checked more than a dozen Republicans here — finally settling on the expectation that Michelle Steel would duck Jay Chen and run here, which in retrospect what was I thinking? — and Scott Baugh was not even among them. Yes, he can raise a lot of money, and yes, he’s a good fit for the power area of Newport Beach — but he has the same problem that Young Kim has in CA-40: not reliably extreme enough for the die-hard Republican right, and not at all palatable to anyone but establishment Republicans and right-leaning independents. Meanwhile Democrats are wild for Katie “Whiteboard” Porter — though, while likely well-funded, will depend on volunteer forces as well. And I think that she’ll get them. I suspect that people will be phone-banking for Katie from everywhere from Belgium to New Zealand.

CA-49

Mike Levin’s new district covers the coast from Dana Point (and,. inland, Laguna Niguel) to Del Mar — and for him more San Diego means more winning. I really thought that Darrell Issa might rise to the bait, or else some San Diego Republican. Instead, it’s Brian Maryott of San Juan Capistrano, who lost this race by six points last time when it was evenly split between the counties and will probably lose by more now that it’s more San Diegofied. I was so confident that it would just make sense that it would be from San Diego that I did’t even include Maryott in my predictions. Levin got 49% in the primary; Maryott got 19%, neating Lisa Barlett, who had slightly under 11%.

CONCLUSION

So how did I do with my predictions? Who cares? The point was to get you to read and think about the upcoming Congressional races — three of which really are close enough that they could determine control of Congress! So therein lies my victory! (Because it sure wasn’t in my predictions from January!)

This is your Weekend Open Thread. Talk about that or whatever else you’d like, withing reasonable bounds of dignity and decorum!

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About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-disabled and semi-retired, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally ran for office against jerks who otherwise would have gonr unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.) His daughter is a professional campaign treasurer. He doesn't usually know whom she and her firm represent. Whether they do so never influences his endorsements or coverage. (He does have his own strong opinions.) But when he does check campaign finance forms, he is often happily surprised to learn that good candidates he respects often DO hire her firm. (Maybe bad ones are scared off by his relationship with her, but they needn't be.)