The Voice of OC has published a story you can find in our sidebar wondering whether Brea Councilman Steve Vargas can still surpass incumbent Doug Chaffee to take the second spot against Sunny Park in the autumn runoff for the 4th District Supervisor’s race. This sent me into a panic — not because I had any doubts about the answer, which is “no” — but because I didn’t want to see the admirable folks at the VOC making an elementary error.
Then things got weird.
Here is a link to the always-helpful “What’s Left to Count” page on the Registrar of Voters site. It’s very clear: only 2,179 ballots remain to be counted in Orange County. This number may still increase by a handful as the last absentee ballots cast by Tuesday June 7 wend their way through the postal system — but we’re talking single-digits. Of those, only some will be in the 4th district; of the ones in the 4th district, only some will have voted in this race; of the ones who voted in the race, only some will have voted for Vargas. Vargas is simply not going to make up the current 547-vote deficit when fewer than 547 votes remain to be counted in the district.
Nick Gerda is a good and careful reporter, so I tried to contact him priavtely last night to ask him to spike the story. It used to be that one could email the VOC’s reporters individually, but I can no longer find that on their site. (I emailed him at an address where we had previously corresponded years ago, but I don’t know that it’s still active.) And then I stumbled upon the weird thing: the Secretary of State’s figures as to Unprocessed Ballots in Orange County do not match the County’s figures.
Orange | 50,383 | 0 |1,220 | 105 | 51,708 | 06/15/22 05:02:06 PM
The State’s report, which was updated at the time that the OC ROV released its latest results, indicates that Orange County has over 50,000 votes yet to count — almost surely not enough al allow Vargas to pass Chaffee, given the factors noted above, but enough to justify Gerda’s article — which from what I can tell is simply flatly untrue.
I can’t recall seeing this sort of majour discrepancy between the county and state “unprocessed ballot” figures before, but I’m inclined to trust the county’s figures. So, while in the overwhelming number of cases I will tell our readers to trust the VOC‘s reporting — on which I routinely and extensively rely in my own writing here — this time I’m going to tell you to ignore the premise of the story. Doug Chaffee will face Sunny Park in the runoff, and (as reported here days ago) Vargas’s strong final push to overtake him simply doesn’t have the numbers it needs. (It has some nice quotes from the DPOC Chair trashing Chaffee’s performance in office, though — so I guess it’s worth reading for that.)
The day after the above story, the Chaffee post is still up without changes — and, again, there ARE parts that they should retain — and today the OC ROV reports that the remaining number of ballots to count is: 658.
https://ocvote.gov/results/whats-left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count
Chaffee’s current lead over Vargas is … 541.
The most charitable explanation I can offer is that they’re waiting for Vargas to concede. (But if so, why?)
The Secretary of State now puts the number of outstanding votes in the county at 2,179. (The disparity seems to be that the “Unprocessed Ballots Status” page is running a day behind, but I don’t recall that being the case earlier on.) Anyway, that’s not actually enough for Vargas to make the Top 2 either.
I’m rarely disappointed in the VOC, but this is one of those times. No, in answer to the question “Did Orange County Supervisor Doug Chaffee Just Lose Re-Election?”, Chaffee did not “just” lose the election. He’s still in it. If he does end up losing it, he will have lost it quite a while ago — when he did all of those terrible things that Ada Briceño mentions in their article.
*Since we have no open thread…..here is your thought balloon for the day:
Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas…..you want more Security for your personal
safety? Better get a CCW, a Glock 17 and your new Bushmaster AR-15…..for home
Defense…eh? Protect those 2nd Amendment rights for yourselves…eh?
*2nd Thought balloon of the day: Herschel Walker has 4 illegit kids and wants to be the next Senator from the great state of Georgia. Hopefully, he is enjoying this Father’s Day with his best bud OJ….at an undisclosed location.
*3rd Thought balloon of the day: “Why isn’t Trump in jail for inciting insurrection?”
Probably something to do with his not having been indicted, tried and convicted — yet.
*What a day: The SCOTUS overturn Roe and the NY Gun law all within 24 hours. Who voted against those efforts: Kagan, Soto-Mayer and Bryer. Guess the other six are waiting for their Swiss Bankers to call them with the of the proceeds?
So…everyone wears a gun to go shopping. Everyone can knock up their own daughters
and nieces or abuse anyone without impunity. The police can pull you over and shoot you because you have a unlicensed firearm in your vehicle? Ah, time to start looking for
Matt Dillion and maybe Wyatt Earp to show up again? Domestic Violence? Police Deaths? Domestic Upheavel? Terrorist Activity? Thank you the Trump Surpreme Court
…we couldn’t have done it without you!
What do you think is the proper Corrective Action should be for these choices?
A million out of work Lawyers…..guess the ABA is excited to get more of its members
working again….eh?