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If you’re a Democratic State Central Committee delegate, you can publicly register notice of your intended vote here, so that delegates considering voting for someone who look like they don’t have a prayer of winning may coalesce among the more viable candidates and help to winnow out the field.
(Hey, at least it’s a workable theory — and anyway nothing else has worked!)
- PREFACE
[NOTE: If you’re a Democratic State Central Committee delegate and just want to enter your preferences, skip down to the number of your Regional Pre-Endorsement Caucus and then enter your intended votes in comments. Remember, these votes will be public anyway — we’ll all be able to look them up and I’ll be able to publish them here, but many (like mine) will have been mailed or emailed in ahead of time.
So your only chance to help winnow the field down to a reasonable 2 or 3 candidates — enough to pretty much ensure that at least one Democrat makes the Top 2 and can participate in the general election — is to post your own TOP, or failing that TOP 2, or AT MOST your top 3 choices here. (If another website wants to do the same, great. We’ll combine all credible information.)
Every other attempt to winnow down the candidate fields has failed! This attempt may fail too — a candidate may still think that their funding or experience or charm or endorsements or policy positions mean that it’s worth their risking a total car wreck from which no Dems survive June rather than bowing out of the race before damage has been done — but at least we’ll have tried.
Again, if you’re a delegate in a hurry, skip the next few paragraphs — but if you can already commit to a vote, please do so while you can still influence others’ votes and prevent the DEMOPOCALYPSE! My own first (and final! — those are the rules!) vote will be sent in on Thursday, and may well be determined by whether the results of YOUR CHOICES suggest that MY preferred candidates are viable!
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2. BACKGROUND
Orange County is supposed to be the Center of the Political Universe this year when it comes to determining whether Democrats capture the House of Representatives. The potential for humiliation is therefore huge.
Right now, it looks plausible that NO NON-INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE JUNE PRIMARY IN ANY OF THE FOUR CONTESTED DISTRICTS! The problem is a failure to “winnow the field” prior to filing for office, which begins on Feb. 12 and ends on March 9. (Expect most candidates to file on the first day, if they can, which is the equivalent of taking your hand off the steering wheel while driving straight at another car while playing a game of “chicken.”)
MY BEST CURRENT PREDICTIONS of who will end up in the Top 2 General Election Runoff in November for each of OC’s four competitive GOP-held Congressional Districts WITHOUT WINNOWING are these:
CA-39 [Royce]: two of Republicans Shawn Nelson, Bob Huff, and Young Kim (against 6 easily viable Dems plus some others)
CA-45 [Walters]: Republicans Mimi Walters vs. Greg Raths (against 7 Dems, 5 of whom are quite viable)
CA-48 [Dana R.]: Republicans Dana Rohrabacher vs. Stelian Onufrei (against 8 Dems, 5-6 of whom are viable, but the others will take votes)
CA-49 [Issa]: Republicans Diane Harkey vs. Rocky Chavez (versus 3 highly viable Dems + one more who will take some votes)
(Like the way that looks, Democratic Congressional candidates?)
Each district is winnable for Dems, but even if they’re about 52-48 blue, then two Republicans with 24% of the vote each will easily beat three Dems with about 17% each.
THAT is our stupid primary system! But people won’t understand that outside of the state — all they will understand is DONALD TRUMP TWEETING THAT REPUBLICANS SHUT OUT DEMOCRATS IN FOUR OF THE TOP DEMOCRATIC PARTY TARGETED RACE.
THOSE ARE THE STAKES! AFFECTING THE UNDERSTANDING OF TRUMP’S POPULARITY NATIONALLY AND THROUGH NOVEMBER (AND BEYOND).
A WORD TO CANDIDATES: But it’s still worth “playing chicken” over stubbornly refusing to drop out, right? Well WE WILL HAVE VOTE TOTALS in June and THE WHOLE COUNTRY WILL KNOW WHO TO BLAME FOR OC’s DEMOPOCALYSE!!
(Are you comfortable with the culprit being you?)
A WORD TO DSCC DELEGATES: For by far most of you, this isn’t your fault. It’s an insane system with a (deservedly) weak state party and a local party that has squandered its credibility by trying to squeeze Democrats like Josh Newman and Farrah Khan out of previous races — in my opinion based upon who is and isn’t “a member of the (anti-leftist) club.”
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO to help avoid the OC Demopocalypse is to say NOW, while it’s early enough to form a consensus, who you favor in the primary. If someone gets over 50%, then the smarter among the other candidates — all of whom have been calling you to get your vote! — stand a chance of dropping out, especially when we finally have an objective basis to demand that they do so…
… BUT IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT NEXT WEEKEND’S MEETING! Most votes will either be emailed in by Thursday morning or emailed in by Friday evening. If you want to work towards a cruel-but-fair consensus, you have to ACT PRETTY MUCH NOW! The best plan I have to offer is for you to POST YOUR INTENDED VOTES (or at least post your 2-3 finalists) FOR CONGRESS below.
3. HERE ARE YOUR CHOICES
Bold Text indicates a candidate has filed with the CDP
Italic Text indicates a candidate is a potential candidate
An * next to a candidate’s name indicates incumbent status
Region 15 Pre-Endorsement Conference
Assembly Districts
AD 55
Gregg Fritchle*
(NOTE: FRITCHLE WILL BOW OUT TO ANY REASONABLE CANDIDATE. IF YOU LIVE (OR ARE PRETENDING TO LIVE) IN DISTRICT 55, WHICH INCLUDES YORBA LINDA, YOU CAN RUN HERE AND WIN!)
Other
Senate Districts
None are up
Congressional Districts
CD 38
Linda Sanchez*
Other
CD 39
Jay Chen
Gil Cisneros
Andy Thorburn
Sam Jammal
Phil Janowicz
Mai-Khanh Tran
Cybil Steed
Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include: Ted Rusk, Suzi Park Leggett, and Herbert Lee
Other
Region 17 Pre-Endorsement Conference
State Senate
SD 34
Gerrie Schipske
Other
[Note: Jestin Samson is also running, and would presumably want a “no endorsement” vote.]
Assembly Districts
AD 65
Sharon Quirk-Silva*
Other
AD 68
Michelle Duman
Other
AD 69
Tom Daly*
Ana Martinez
Other
AD 72
Josh Lowenthal
Other
CD 46
Lou Correa
Other
Region 18 Pre-Endorsement Conference
Assembly Districts
AD 73
Scott Rhinehart
Other
AD 74
Catherine “Cottie” Petrie-Norris
Other
Senate Districts
SD 36
Marggie Castellano
Other
Congressional District
CD 45
Brian Forde
Dave Min
Katie Porter
Kia Hamadanchy
Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include: Ron Varasteh, Greg Ramsay, and Eric Rywalski
Other
CD 48
Hans Keirstead
Michael Kotick
Laura Oatman
Rachel Payne
Boyd Roberts
Harley Rouda
Omar Siddiqui
Tony Zardakes
CD 49
Doug Applegate
Sara Jacobs
Paul Kerr
Mike Levin
Christina Prejean
Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include: none
IF YOU ARE A DELEGATE, leave your Congressional District and your top 1, 2, or 3 preferences (ranked or not) in a comment from your real email address — and I can check, and may contact you to confirm! — below.
Any spoofing of email addresses will be investigated and reported both to the CDP and FPPC, insofar as is possible. NO PRIVATE INFORMATION WILL BE SHARED WITH ANY CAMPAIGN other than what is published here.
Note to NON-DEMS — we’re usually very tolerant in keeping comments from all but the most repugnant sinkholes. But, this is not the place for you to mess up our straw poll. If you want to have your own straw pre-endorsement poll here, let us know and give us the text. If we know that you’re just messing around, your comments will — at best — be transported to our Weekly Open Thread. At best!
So, it’s okay for me to do this?
CD 39 Thorburn.
CD 48 Rouda.
CD 49 Applegate.
None of them are in your CD. If you were a DSCC delegate, you’d only be voting on Correa’s Congressional race.
By the way, there’s a candidate forum in Chino Hills Wednesday night which I may attend (if time permits. Got some deadlines.) I’ve planned on posting my 1-3 picks here after that.
Uh, no one in SD29?
There’s no *regular* election scheduled in SD-29 this year. The recall election doesn’t use this process.
But you’re putting someone up in SD-29, right?
I can’t recall it even being discussed! I had thought that you meant Josh.
I’ll ask Josh if he knows!
Color me shocked.
Shocked.
I get that you are portraying the emotion of “shock” here, but I don’t see why. There’s no clearly preferable option, either ethically or tactically. Courtesy to the person facing the recall seems like a pretty good position.
Is that last sentence what you find shocking?
No, it’s that after a year of violating the Constitutional rights of this district and lying about people being duped, you (the party) still doesn’t have a candidate.
Really hope Newman stops listening to whomever he’s been listening to. They’re burying his tenure.
“Violating constitutional rights?” Ryan, that’s bullshit and undermines your usually well-thought-out take on events. By this you seem to mean “protecting their right to hold an election with the smallest possible expected electorate.” That’s not a “constitutional right” and attempts to abuse the recall right in a way to cherry-pick the electorate are perfectly fine to address legislatively. And y’all should be ashamed of trying to get as small an electorate as possible. It is racist as well as cowardly.
The party is fully behind Josh, in any public discussion or private discussion that I’m likely to hear. The only way you’d see a Democrat run would be to get in the way of any reprobate Democrat who had any inclination to sandbag him.
CD 48- Harley Rouda
Huh. I was gonna put real polls on this post so people could have fun voting … but it looks like our new version of WordPress doesn’t do that any more! Damn … you probably tried that too.
CD39 here, as a currently registered Dem, I would just hope any of those Delegates reading – and any part officer hears out now – Swing Left, or get two Republicans. No more centrist representation – it’s now or never. If I had to pick from given list – Jay Chen would be my favorite horse – but all that would change with a sniff of line towing the establishment Corporate control of either party.
Not quite in that district, but Thorburn, Chen, Janovitz and Cisneros all seem good. I just want it to narrow down to THE ONE of those who has the best chance to beat Young Shawn Huff.
Jammal and Tran are good too. Seriously, none of the top six are less than decent. The consideration you raise — which I think of as “who can play for the varsity team?” is the one that also guides me, though. I’ll have more to say on this after tonight’s forum (which I still hope to attend.)
Here’s a breakdown of their strengths:
CHEN: experienced candidate, experienced officeholder, businessman, has good financial resources, fluent in Spanish and Chinese, military service background (a la Josh), Harvard educated, brilliant and seriously progressive, longstanding ties to the district.
CISNEROS: over 1/4-billionaire (due to lottery winnings), Latino, has endorsements from Latino officeholders, philanthropist (though not here).
JAMMAL: sharp, progressive, raised in this district, former green energy exec, legislative aide experience in Sacto and DC (Chief of Staff)
JANOWITZ: local former professor, very nice guy, strong ties to local activist community, will not be outflanked on his left, longstanding ties to district
TRAN: smart pediatrician, has decent financial resources, only woman among leading Dems, Asian, progressive, woman-and-a-doctor (said twice here because that’s what she does)
THORBURN: whip smart, successful businessman, probably at please 10%-of-billionaire, insurance executive who no one seems to think did anything wrong in his niche practice, civil rights and teaching background, otherwise progressive, seems canny in his use of funds
I’d be be proud to have any of them as my rep in Congress. Unless all of Huff, Kim, and Nelson stay in the race, I don’t expect to have any of them on my ballot in November. (And “3R vs. 6D” may still not be enough for 2 Ds to get through.)
Candidate forum tonight in Chino Hills! Search for it online.