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No offense intended to Republicans; we looked, but we could not find a picture of an elephant in a small boat.
Before anything else, I’m kicking myself (softly, but still) because I forgot to update the “What’s Left to Count?” report that went up Monday at 5 p.m. I don’t think that it’s still online, and it would be hard to extrapolate because I’m told that Monday’s report contained more than one day’s worth of counting, because the intrepid Registrar of Voter’s staff not only worked on Veteran’s Day, but over the following holiday weekend to boot! So I’ll just add the Tuesday evening report here and hope that maybe someone in the ROV will leak me Monday’s report. (No, I don’t ask for much!)
Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 15, 5 p.m.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 374,397 (had peaked at 424,397)
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 158,616 (had been 35,718 in Friday’s report)
Total Estimated Left to Count: 215,781 (had been 388,679 in Friday’s report)
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 91,529 (was 35,718)
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 4,277
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 108,000 (i.e., none counted in time for this report)
Total provisionals counted: 0
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 108,000
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 134,174 (I’d had this at 184,174)
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 67,087
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 67,087 (see above)
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 22,500
Total election day paper ballots counted: 0
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 22,500
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 13,917
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 13,917
So to make that easier to grasp at a glance: 215,781 estimated ballots remaining to be counted =
4,277 early VBMs + 67,087 VBMs returned at polls + 13,917 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
22,500 paper ballots + 108,000 provisional ballots
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now, a reminder of what races we’re following and what initially unsettled races we have by now called:
- CA-49
- SD-29
- AD-65
- Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
- South OC CCD Seat 4
- Brea Olinda USD, third spot
- Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
- Santa Ana USD, third spot
- Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
- Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
- Ocean View Elementary, second spot
- Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
- County Supervisor, District 1
- Anaheim District 1
- Anaheim District 3
- Brea Treasurer
- Costa Mesa Council, third spot
- Fullerton Council, third spot
- Garden Grove, District 6
- Laguna Beach Council, second spot
- Lake Forest Council, second spot
- Los Alamitos Council, second spot
- Newport Beach, District 5
- Placentia Council, third spot
- San Clemente Council, second spot
- Seal Beach, District 2
- Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
- Yorba Linda Council, third spot
- Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
- Midway City Sanitary, second spot
- El Toro Water, third spot
- Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
- MWDOC Division 4
- Measure GG
- Measure OO
CA-49 (OC numbers, followed by San Diego numbers)
| Issa | 40,229 | 77,619 | 117,848 | 50.9900% | |
| Applegate | 25,917 | 87,355 | 113,272 | 49.0100% |
Issa added 3,994 — only 978 in OC. Applegate added 3,553 — only 495 in OC. So the difference was all in OC, and it may be that the flow of OC numbers is slowing while the flow of San Diego numbers is not. (Or it may not be that — in which Applegate looks likely to have trouble catching up.)
SD-29 (OC numbers, then San Berdoo numbers, then LA numbers, then totals and percentages)
| Chang | 96,354 | 14,472 | 18,071 | 128,897 | 50.9980% |
| Newman | 92,380 | 12,166 | 19,306 | 123,852 | 49.0020% |
This is THE MOST HOTLY CONTESTED race in California. (I’ll write more later about how that is affecting Santa Ana.)
Chang added 4,529 votes in OC, 3,107 in Chino Hills, and 866 in LA.
Newman added 4,595 votes in OC, 2,419 in Chino Hills, and 795 in LA.
So: Newman and Chang traded tiny gains in OC and LA, but Chang had a great day in Chino Hills. LA’s votes seem to be coming in very slowly, though, and both they and the late-arriving and provisional ballots in OC will likely close almost of the current 5,045 gap — or exceed it.
AD-65
|
Sharon adds 3,286; Young Kim adds 2.590. I don’t like to call races with less than a 5% margin, and there’s no reason not to wait with this one because maybe some big Korean areas haven’t voted, but … I think that this one is essentially over.
Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
Alvarez’s lead goes from 3.2% to 4.1% overnight. Aguinaga gains on Nguyen as well, underlining the late shift to Latino candidates at the end of the races. (Due mostly to the lack of strong advance VBM ballot drives for them and to the greater Latino proportion of provisional ballots.) I’ll give this one another day, but like AD-65 it is also over.
South OC CCD Seat 4
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Alpay does keep gaining on Whitt here, but it doesn’t look like it’s happening quickly enough. Still, I won’t call it yet.
Brea Olinda USD, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Todd advanced slightly today, but Hobby’s lead looks pretty stable. Not calling it yet.
Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
Betty Carroll won dirty.
Santa Ana USD, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
This has been one of the most interesting races to watch, with three Democrats (two on a slate with Rigo Rodriguez) chasing Republican Angie Cano (who is on a slate with leader Ceci Iglesias.) Alfonzo Alvarez has come from 6th place to breathing down Cano’s neck in the race for third. Bruce Bauer, who had been in fourth not so long ago, has falled back to sixth, with Alvarez’s slate-mate McLoughlin staying in fifth. It seems like the Late Latino Surge is breaking Alvarez out of the pack, and as a Democrat he has an advantage over Cano in the late balloting. Since yesterday, Iglesias gained 1,037, Rodriguez 1,039, Cano 645, Alvarez 679, McLoughlin 618, Bauer 536, and Mendoza 503.
Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Jensen added 24; Castaneda 39. Five vote margin!
Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Each candidate literally gained exactly 100 votes. That favors the leader.
Ocean View Elementary, second spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Westwell adds 313; Singer adds 289. Something big will have to change for her to stay alive.
Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called for Nguyen over Truong]
County Supervisor, District 1
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Do adds 3,175; Martinez adds 3,295. She’s finally within 5%, but her late surge looks like too little too late. Still, it’s a significant race, so there’s no harm in leaving it on the board.
Anaheim District 1
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Another very interesting race. So far Barnes has led wire to wire, but never by as much as 200 votes. She added 111 votes Tuesday while Lodge added 107 and Lahtinen (who won’t win) added 113. With no one making a big move towards her, she’s in a decent position to wait out the clock — but this is still up in the air.
Anaheim District 3
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
When you look at the trend lines in this race, they cross right about at the point where the vote count is projected to end. Brandman added 219 votes; Moreno added 261. The Brandman forces’ strategy of adding Rivera (27 votes) and Lobatos (38 votes) to the race is still a tremendous burden for Moreno, as it cuts into his Late Latino Surge. At 42 voters per day, it would take him 5-1/2 days to catch and pass Brandman — and 5 to 6 more days is not a bad estimate of what’s left.
Brea Treasurer
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Just not a lot of movement here. Rios adds 85; Ullrich adds 88.
Costa Mesa Council, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
Mansoor adds 634; Mensinger adds 562; Humphrey adds 570. One of the challengers needs to make a move or Mansoor edges in.
Fullerton Council, third spot
Jesus Silva is closer to Whitaker now than to Larry Bennett. |
Garden Grove, District 6
| CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Member, City Council, District 6 | ||
| KIM BERNICE NGUYEN | 2,492 | 57.60% |
| RICKK MONTOYA | 1,832 | 42.40% |
| * Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any | ||
If Montoya doesn’t make a move by tomorrow, we’re calling this one.
Laguna Beach Council, second spot
| CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| * BOB WHALEN | 6,198 | 33.20% |
| * STEVE DICTEROW | 4,749 | 25.40% |
| VERNA ROLLINGER | 4,393 | 23.50% |
| JUDIE MANCUSO | 3,344 | 17.90% |
Just not much movement here.
Lake Forest Council, second spot
| CITY OF LAKE FOREST Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| LEAH BASILE | 12,028 | 27.10% |
| * DWIGHT ROBINSON | 8,661 | 19.50% |
| * ADAM NICK | 8,450 | 19.10% |
| FRANCISCO BARAJAS | 6,814 | 15.40% |
| FRANK WAGONER | 5,864 | 13.20% |
| FARH SEMNANI | 2,492 | 5.60% |
Nick’s doing a little better today, but still can’t get the margin back under 200.
Los Alamitos Council, second spot
| CITY OF LOS ALAMITOS Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| JOSH WILSON | 2,180 | 38.00% |
| * RICHARD D. MURPHY | 1,823 | 31.80% |
| * DEAN GROSE | 1,733 | 30.20% |
Dean Grose still down by 90.
Newport Beach, District 5
| CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 5 | ||
| JEFF HERDMAN | 10,860 | 35.90% |
| LEE LOWREY | 10,205 | 33.70% |
| MIKE GLENN | 9,194 | 30.40% |
Quite static.
Placentia Council, third spot
| CITY OF PLACENTIA Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 3 | ||
| WARD L. SMITH | 6,365 | 16.40% |
| * JEREMY B. YAMAGUCHI | 6,216 | 16.00% |
| RHONDA SHADER | 4,899 | 12.60% |
| CHRIS BUNKER | 4,815 | 12.40% |
| THOMAS M. (TOM) SOLOMONSON | 4,671 | 12.10% |
| KEVIN KIRWIN | 3,949 | 10.20% |
| ROBERT MCKINNELL | 3,683 | 9.50% |
| FABIAN O. FRAGIAO | 2,556 | 6.60% |
| BLAKE MONTERO | 1,598 | 4.10% |
Shader starts to pull away from Bunker
San Clemente Council, second spot
| CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| * CHRIS HAMM | 12,434 | 28.60% |
| STEVEN SWARTZ | 10,043 | 23.10% |
| DAN BANE | 9,744 | 22.40% |
| * ROBERT “BOB” BAKER | 9,575 | 22.00% |
| PAMELA JOY GLASS | 1,652 | 3.80% |
Swartz gains 270, but Bane gains 294. Baker looks to be out of the picture now.
Seal Beach, District 2
| CITY OF SEAL BEACH Member, City Council, District 2 | ||
| THOMAS MOORE | 1,173 | 51.10% |
| RONDE WINKLER | 1,121 | 48.90% |
Pretty static.
Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
| CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| VINCE ROSSINI | 1,528 | 34.30% |
| ROBERT (ROBBIE) PITTS | 1,509 | 33.90% |
| HOWARD KIRSCHNER | 1,412 | 31.70% |
The OJB’s semi-retired and semi-endorsed candidate does not seem likely to catch up.
Yorba Linda Council, third spot
| CITY OF YORBA LINDA Member, City Council | ||
| Number To Vote For: 3 | ||
| TARA CAMPBELL | 13,025 | 19.80% |
| * EUGENE J. “GENE” HERNANDEZ | 11,366 | 17.30% |
| BETH HANEY | 10,162 | 15.40% |
| * CRAIG YOUNG | 9,928 | 15.10% |
| CRISTY LOMENZO PARKER | 8,534 | 13.00% |
| RYAN SMITH | 7,346 | 11.20% |
| PAUL E. DIPPOLITO | 5,419 | 8.20% |
Craig Young continues his charge at Beth Haney! Margin is now 134 votes, down from 298 the previous day! This is exciting, if you’re the sort of person whom this sort of thing excites!
Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
| ROSSMOOR COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director | ||
| Number To Vote For: 3 | ||
| * TONY DEMARCO | 2,518 | 26.70% |
| * RON CASEY | 2,062 | 21.90% |
| * MICHAEL MAYNARD | 1,987 | 21.10% |
| PAUL KALISH | 1,838 | 19.50% |
| SHAZ UMER | 1,016 | 10.80% |
Very little happened here today.
Midway City Sanitary, second spot
| MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director | ||
| Number To Vote For: 2 | ||
| * AL KRIPPNER | 10,034 | 26.20% |
| CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN | 8,943 | 23.30% |
| * JOY L. NEUGEBAUER | 8,933 | 23.30% |
| ANITA A. RICE | 5,546 | 14.50% |
| SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN | 4,909 | 12.80% |
Change of lead! Change of lead! Chi Charlie Chen finally passes Joy Neugebauer by 10 votes!
El Toro Water, third spot
| EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director | ||
| Number To Vote For: 3 | ||
| * JOSE VERGARA | 10,009 | 27.00% |
| * SCOTT GOLDMAN | 9,482 | 25.60% |
| * MARK MONIN | 8,885 | 24.00% |
| KATHRYN FRESHLEY | 8,634 | 23.30% |
Not all that much is happening here, but the tension is mounting.
Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
| Candidates to succeed Gary T. Melton as Yorba Linda Water District Director, | ||
| ALBERT M. NEDERHOOD | 13,505 | 51.90% |
| ROBERT W. “BOB” WREN | 12,533 | 48.10% |
We’re getting ready to call this one, making it a clean sweep for the rebel alliance. But for the purpose of gauging SD-29, it’s nice to know how many votes by obsessive voters are coming into Yorba Linda.
MWDOC Division 4
| MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT OF ORANGE COUNTY Director, Division 4 | ||
| * JOAN FINNEGAN | 39,839 | 44.10% |
| KELLY ROWE | 35,653 | 39.50% |
| TIM BEAMAN | 14,877 | 16.50% |
Yeah, we’re going to call this one for Joan Finnegan. But you ran a good race, Kelly Rowe!
Measure GG
| GG-City of Cypress, Cypress Town Center and Commons Specific Plan | ||
| Yes | 7,895 | 48.50% |
| No | 8,384 | 51.50% |
We’re going to call this for “NO.” Yay.
Measure OO
| OO-City of San Clemente, Increase in “Hotel” Guest Tax | ||
| Yes | 13,201 | 50.60% |
| No | 12,909 | 49.40% |
Still too close to call. And that’s it for today!
Im going to go today to help observe ballot counts
I’ve already put up a post with the good developments in four of the top races today — soon to become six when I muck around in multi-county races of SD-29 and CA-49.
Thanks Greg for the up to date information.
I also appreciate the comments about Mark Newgent the Army Captain, running for school board.
You are correct when stating that “Betty Carroll won dirty” by embarrassing our military because he neglected to register his domain, was shameful. The videos were silly and they were full of adult content, meant for fun. Exploiting him for political gain is awful.
He is an Army Captain and put his life ahead of ours and to hurt him with these silly videos or comedy routines was disgraceful.
You guys are great, miss you both
This recap of Tuesday evening’s results is finally done. Now to finish the one for Wednesday. I hope that you’re happy, Historical Record!