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No major developments today, so here’s a reminder from OJB of what South Orange County SHOULD look like.  Think of how many fewer ballots we’d have to count if the “newer” South OC cities were merged into Mission Viejo!  Bigger than Anaheim!  Economies of scale!  Attracting athletic teams!  No more of Laguna Hills looking like a Klingon battle cruiser!  Search “Nuevo Viejo” on our site for more.

Headlines:

• Applegate cuts margin by 266 to 2,424, but it takes 3000 votes to do it
• Newman’s lead expands to 2,836 in OC, 1,766 overall
• Cano cuts SAUSD lead from 111 to 64
• Martinez cuts 37% of Do’s lead down to 669
• Barnes’s lead remains at almost 3,000
• Moreno expands lead from 41 to 53 votes
• Measure OO lead drops from 28 to 22

After Wednesday’s update, we have 28 of 35 initially unsettled races called (see the list and results at the bottom) and 7 that we’re still following, though most appear to be pretty well settled.  Today, 1,262 votes were added.

CA-39

Today’s OC results:

Issa adds 69 votes, Applegate adds 36.  Issa’s OC margin increases by 33.  Applegate adds 1,613 in San Diego to Issa’s 1,314.  Applegate’s SD margin increases by 299.  Issa’s overall margin drops by 266 to 2,424.

SD-29

Newman adds 285 to Chang’s 217 in OC (the other counties didn’t update.)  His margin becomes 2,836 in OC and 1,766 overall.  (See 11/23 report for the 11/25 LA County update.)

Angie Cano keeps gaining ground on Alfonso Alvarez.  His lead, which peaked at 209, has just decreased from 111 to 64.  Where are those late-counted ballots coming from — provisionals?  The bright side for Alvarez is that the ROV just tallied about 1,100 ballots in this district, so they’ve got to be running out soon — right?

Andrew Do adds 1,026 votes; Michele Martinez counters with 1,415.  That’s about 58% of today’s haul for Martinez.  The margin drops by 389, from 1,058 to 669.  If she stays at that rate, she’d need to see 4,199 more votes counted to pass him.

Note, for people who missed it, that we “un-called” this race given the pattern shown below.

58.9% (54K) – INITIAL VBMs
53.1% (93.5) – THAT PLUS REGULAR POLL VOTES:
53.1% (94K) – 5 pm 11/9
53.0 (94.5K) – 5 pm 11/10
53.1% (96.5) – 5 pm 11/11
52.8% (108K) – 5 pm 11/14
52.5% (115.5K) – 5 pm 11/15
52.3% (121K) – 5 pm 11/16
52.0% (129.5K) – 5 pm 11/17
51.6% (134K) – 5 pm 11/18
51.5% (137.5K) – 5 pm 11/21 <== this is when I called it, with votes slowing down everywhere else
51.1% (142.5K) – 5 pm 11/22
50.4% (148.5K) – 5 pm 11/23 <== this is when I retracted the call; Santa Ana is still rising rapidly
50.2% (151K) – 5 pm 11/26 

Lodge cuts Barnes’s lead from 295 to 290 on 24 votes counted!  If he can keep doing this for 58 more days of counting, he’ll tie the race!

Moreno increases the lead from 41 to 53 on 39 votes counted.  That sizzling sound you hear is the next-to-last remaining doubt I’ve had drying up.

Measure OO

Lead drops from 28 to 22.  “YES” added 8, “NO” added 14.  How many votes are left?

NEXT:  Beyond the 7 races we’re still following (three of which, SD-29 and the two Anaheim races, seem pretty well set, along with CA-49, which is probably set), here’s a reminder of the outcomes of the 29 initially unsettled races that we have already called:

1. AD-65   [called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
2. Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [called for Claudia Alvarez]
3. South OC CCD Seat 4  [called for Terri Whitt]
4. Brea Olinda USD, third spot [called for Kevin Hobby]
5. Irvine USD, third spot [called for Betty Carroll]
6. Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [called for Irene Castaneda]
7. Centralia Elementary, Seat 3  [called for Liz Gonzalez]
8. Ocean View Elementary, second spot  [called for Norm Westwell]
9. Westminster Elementary, second spot [called for Frances Nguyen]
10. Brea Treasurer  [called for Rick Rios]
11. Costa Mesa Council, third spot [called for Allan Mansoor]
12. Fullerton Council, third spot [called for Jesús Silva]
13. Garden Grove, District 6 [called for Kim Bernice Nguyen]
14. Laguna Beach Council, second spot [called for 
15. Lake Forest Council, second spot (called for Dwight Robinson)
16. Los Alamitos Council, second spot (called AGAINST Dean Grose)
17. Newport Beach, District 5 [outcome called for Jeff Herdman]
18. Placentia Council, third spot [outcome called for Rhonda Shader]
19. San Clemente Council, second spot
20. Seal Beach, District 2
21. Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
22. Yorba Linda Council, third spot
23. Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
24. Midway City Sanitary, second spot
25. El Toro Water, third spot
26. Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
27. MWDOC Division 4
28. Measure GG

Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 26, 5 p.m.

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 130,000 in Wednesday’s report)

Total provisionals counted: 85,685 (had been 81,589 in Tuesday’s report)

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 44,315 (had been 48,411 in Wednesday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 145,374 (had been 145,174)

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 145,283 (had been 144,547 in Wednesday’s report)

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 91 (had been 91 in Wednesday’s report)  UNCHANGED

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 27,000)

Total election day paper ballots counted: unchanged  (had been 26,944)

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: unchanged (had been 56)   UNCHANGED

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 14,200 in Tuesday’s report) 

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 14,200 (had been 13,938 in Wednesday’s report)

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0 (had been 262 in Wednesday’s report)

To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 44,478  ballots remain to be counted = 

16 early VBMs + 91 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
56 paper ballots + 44,315 provisional ballots

AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!

0 early VBMs + 0 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
0 paper ballots + 4,096 provisional ballots

So, in other words:

• OVER 90% PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY
• OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 163 ARE NOT PROVISIONALS AND 44,315 ARE PROVISIONALS
• THE PROPORTION OF  PROVISIONALS IN THE REMAINING DAYS WILL KEEP RISING
• IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THREE-TO-FOUR DAYS LEFT OF COUNTING (WITH ABOUT 12,000 PROVISIONALS PER DAY) PRIOR TO THE MANDATORY 1% CANVAS OF BALLOTS, BUT IF THEY START SENDING HOME SOME OF THE TEMPORARY STAFF THEN IT MAY TAKE LONGER.  OR IT COULD BE SHORTER, BECAUSE NEAL KELLEY CAN BE UNPREDICTABLE!
• I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE THOSE EXTRA 1,300 BALLOTS IN THE “TOTAL TO BE COUNTED” FIGURE CAME FROM, AS THEY’RE NOT REFLECTED IN THE NUMBERS WITHIN THE SUBCATEGORIES, BUT BEAR IN MIND THAT THESE ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.  STILL, IT’S A FAIR QUESTION TO ASK AND A REASONABLE QUESTION TO ANSWER.