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Headlines first:
- What’s the most dramatic outcome in the OC political races that you could imagine going into the weekend? C’mon, try! … Not even close! Dr. Jose Moreno and Jordan Brandman are now tied at 4,370 votes apiece.
- Josh Newman pulls ahead by 1,012 votes in OC — HE IS WINNING OC!!! — and now trails Ling-Ling Chang by only 187 votes in the tri-county area after surprisingly losing 140 votes of his lead in Los Angeles.
- Alfonso Alvarez has started running away from Angie Cano in the race for the third Santa Ana Unified School District seat.
Jose Moreno laughing while fundraising at Desert Moon, with Mirvette Judeh, Mark Lopez, Ryan Ruelas, Iyad Afalqa, Felicity Figueroa, and others.
All right, now let’s go to our normal procedures for these (week)daily election updates, starting with … What’s Left to Count!:
Total Ballots Left to Count, Nov. 18, 5 p.m.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 408,180 (had been 396,680 in Thursday’s report)
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 315,696 (had been 274,652 in Thursday’s report)report)
Total Estimated Left to Count: 122,028 (had been 92,484 in Thursday’s report)
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 95,806 (that’s after the election, presumably)
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 93,529 (was 91,529)
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 2,277 (was 4,277)
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130,000 (had been 396,680 in Thursday’s report)
Total provisionals counted: 46,624 (had been 35,894 in Thursday’s report)
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 83,376 (had been 94,106 in Thursday’s report)
Vote-by-Mail Ballots Returned at the Polls Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 141,174 (had been 134,174 )
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 135,947 (had been 133,046 in Thursday’s report)
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 5,227 (had been 1,128 in Thursday’s report)
Election Day Paper Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 27,000 (had been 22,500)
Total election day paper ballots counted: 25,658 (had been 245)
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,342
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 14,200 (had been 13,917 in Wednesday’s report)
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 13,938 (unchanged)
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 262 (unchanged)
To make that easier to grasp at a glance: an estimated 92,484 ballots remain to be counted =
2,277 early VBMs + 5,227 VBMs returned at polls + 262 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
1,342 paper ballots + 83,376 provisional ballots
NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT there are unconfirmed rumors that, while the above figures are believed to be current, the ROV’s office may be at least one full day behind in reporting the results of counted ballots. In other words, the above may be good estimates of what was counted by 5:00 today, but it does not follow that all of the data derived from those counted ballots are reflected in these number. It may be that ballots that were counted today will not appear until tomorrow’s count — or conceivably even later. I would consider asking Neal Kelley to clarify this, but he has enough problems with his office now having become a raucous and packed “Politics Central” for anyone interested in this year’s races — particularly AD-55, SD-29, CA-49, and Anaheim City Council.
AND INTRODUCING A NEW FEATURE: TOTAL BALLOTS THAT WERE COUNTED TODAY!
2,000 early VBMs + 2,901 VBMs returned at polls + 0 VBMs arriving after Election Day +
25,413 paper ballots + 10,730 provisional ballots
So, in other words:
- THIS WAS A HIGHER PROVISIONAL BALLOT COUNTING DAY, BUT STILL NOT HUGE.
- OF UNCOUNTED BALLOTS REMAINING, 90.15% ARE PROVISIONALS
- (ALTHOUGH THE NEXT RESULTS MAY NOT YET REFLECT THAT HUGE HAUL OF PROVISIONALS.)
- THIS WAS A HUGE (62%) “PAPER BALLOT” DAY, WITH 26% PROVISIONALS!
- (Of course in specific elections, like SD-29 and Anaheim Districts 1 & 3, it might have been much more heavily provisional ballots — but it’s not clear who among people talking knows for sure!)
And one more thing:
I, at least, do not know whether ballots that have been challenged were opened, tabulated, and included in today’s totals, or whether they are still being set aside and waiting to be counted, or something in between! This is CRUCIAL to know when it comes to races like Anaheim’s District 3! UPDATE: Unconfirmed rumors are that challenged ballots have been opened and tabulated.
(WHEW! Confused? We sure are!)
NEXT: Here’s a reminder of what 22 races we’re still following (and, in some cases, will call today) and those 13 initially unsettled races that we have already called:
- CA-49
- SD-29
- AD-65 [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
- Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5
- South OC CCD Seat 4
- Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]
- Irvine USD, third spot
- Santa Ana USD, third spot √
- Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]
- Centralia Elementary, Seat 3
- Ocean View Elementary, second spot [outcome called for Norm Westwell]
- Westminster Elementary, second spot
- County Supervisor, District 1
- Anaheim District 1
- Anaheim District 3
- Brea Treasurer
- Costa Mesa Council, third spot
- Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]
- Garden Grove, District 6
- Laguna Beach Council, second spot
- Lake Forest Council, second spot
- Los Alamitos Council, second spot
- Newport Beach, District 5 √
- Placentia Council, third spot √
- San Clemente Council, second spot
- Seal Beach, District 2
- Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
- Yorba Linda Council, third spot
- Rossmoor Community Services, third spot
- Midway City Sanitary, second spot
- El Toro Water, third spot
- Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement
- MWDOC Division 4
- Measure GG
- Measure OO
And away we go!
CA-49
| Issa | 45,092 | 89,336 | 134,428 | 51.0109% | |
| Applegate | 29,298 | 99,802 | 129,100 | 48.9891% |
Issa inches up about 400 votes, entirely due to a gain of about 500 in OC. County Democrats did register voters in San Juan Capistrano this year, but not in San Clemente, Rancho Santa Margarita, and Dana Point.
SD-29
Josh Newman pulls ahead by 1,012 in OC!
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Here’s some more fun: Before today’s LA County update, based solely on the old LA figures and the new ones from OC and Chino Hills, Chang was ahead with 50.0081% to 49.9919%.
And, adding in LA County’s update today:
| Chang | 112,001 | 14,750 | 20,169 | 146,920 | 50.0318% |
| Newman | 113,013 | 12,456 | 21,264 | 146,733 | 49.9682% |
(Argh — apologies to people who read this before I fixed it): Newman is DOWN by 187, not UP! LA, what’s wrong with you?
Chang has 50.03%, but as with Moreno ALL (well, almost all) of the momentum is on Newman’s side right now!
Here’s what the totals looked like YESTERDAY … YESTERDAY … YESTERDAY … for the sake of comparison.
| Chang | 106,755 | 14,627 | 18,071 | 139,453 | 50.2562% |
| Newman | 106,420 | 12,305 | 19,306 | 138,031 | 49.7438% |
So: Newman led Chang in LA yesterday by 1,235 votes — and he now leads her by 1,095, for a net loss of 140 votes. (I think that this seemed so improbable to me that I just didn’t process it right as I read it.)
We are NOT calling either race — because we want to keep looking at them every day until they’re done!
AD-65 [outcome called for Sharon Quirk-Silva]
Rancho Santiago CCD Seat 5 [outcome called for Claudia Alvarez]
South OC CCD Seat 4
Another 6,000 votes counted and Alpay makes no headway, the lead now finally bobbing up over 3,000. That’s it: our patience is not infinite; we’re calling it for Terri Whitt. (Frankly, our tempting fate like this is the only remaining chance Alpay has to win.)
Brea Olinda USD, third spot [outcome called for Kevin Hobby]
Irvine USD, third spot [outcome called]
Santa Ana USD, third spot
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
The momentum is clearly with Alvarez, so we could easily justify calling this race — but a 183-vote margin is capable of quickly being reversed.
Buena Park Elementary, Seat 4 [outcome called for Irene Castaneda]
Centralia Elementary, Seat 3 [outcome called for Liz Gonzalez]
Ocean View Elementary, second spot [outcome called for Norm Westwell]
Westminster Elementary, second spot [outcome called]
County Supervisor, District 1 [outcome called for Andrew Do]
Anaheim District 1 [we’ve called it for Barnes but we’re going to continue reporting on it]
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any |
We’ve called this because Lodge’s campaign gives the impression of having fallen to a sidewalk and been beaten senseless with a baton — whoa, where did THAT metaphor suddenly come from?! — but we’re still going to follow it, given the immense stakes. The Friday report had Barnes picking up 146 votes, Lodge 130, Lahtinen 116, Daniels 92, Perez 50, Van Stark 24, and Freddy Fitzgerald Carvajal 22. And this brings me to …
A Special Message to Freddy: Buck up! Don’t feel bad about the result here. You suffered from two problems: (1) lack of a ballot statement, as we have discussed, and (2) the fact that your supporters were among the most sophisticated out there — and while they liked you, they knew that you weren’t going to win and so they voted for Barnes (and in some cases perhaps Daniels.) If you’re choosy about the races you enter, and you do shell out for a b*ll*t st*t*m*nt, you’re going to do very well. (P.S. Also, for your next race, see if you can borrow a nice blimp.)
I’d try to buck up Mark Daniels’s spirits too, but I have a feeling he’s already massively pleased with his showing. Less than 1000 votes behind Lahtinen! Look at you, sir!
Anaheim District 3
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After long and deep thought, we’ve decided not to call this race — IT BEING TIED AND EVERYTHING, YOU KNOW! But we are feeling good about the future, because (Matt Cunningham’s speculation that this might be the final total notwithstanding, leading to the dreaded coin flips), it does not look like we’re going to run out of votes, and that is good news for Dr. Jose Moreno in his effort to supplant Jordan Brandman as the Anaheim City Council’s only Democrat. (Yeah, did you forget about that?)
(Here’s the other funny thing: in Anaheim, the sole Democratic seat on the Anaheim City Council will have been in the majority for at least six straight years! And if Moreno wins, it will have been the only one with that status!)
Brandman picked up 187 votes. And that means that Moreno added — class? you should know this one! — that’s right, 187 + 61 votes, which equals 248. This is the sort of delicious outcome that usually isn’t allowed into novels because no one would believe it. At any rate, Moreno has been gaining almost without pause each day since Election Day — so, unless those wily paper ballots bite him on Monday, one has to consider him the favorite at this point.
But we’re not calling the race.
Brea Treasurer [outcome called for Rick Rios]
Costa Mesa Council, third spot
Mansoor adds 414, Mensinger adds 403, and Humphrey adds 410. Nothing happened except another 2,700 ballots getting eaten up, which is good news for Mansoor.
Fullerton Council, third spot [outcome called for Jesús Silva]
Garden Grove, District 6 [outcome called for Kim Bernice Nguyen
Laguna Beach Council, second spot [outcome called for Steve Dicterow]
Lake Forest Council, second spot
Robinson pads his lead over Nick by another 35. We know that Nick’s going to lose, but we’re entertained.
Los Alamitos Council, second spot
Grose cuts his deficit by 7! If he has 14 more days like this, he’s golden!
Newport Beach, District 5
Herdman’s lead grows from 660 to 711. After some initial hiccups, the lead seems stable. We’re going to call it for Jeff Herdman.
Placentia Council, third spot
Bunker adds 255; Shader adds 257. We don’t see a comeback happening. We’re calling it for Rhonda Shader.
San Clemente Council, second spot
Swartz extends his lead slightly. We’re nearing the breaking point here.
Seal Beach, District 2 [outcome called for Thomas Moore]
(Although Winkler made up some ground today. Shhhhhh!)
Villa Park Council, first AND second spots
Kirschner cuts his deficit from 91 to 75.
Yorba Linda Council, third spot
About 250 votes come in for both Haney and Young. We just don’t know how many are still out there.
Rossmoor Community Services, third spot [outcome called for Michael Maynard]
Midway City Sanitary, second spot
Cha Charlie wavers, his lead dropping from 155 to 131!
El Toro Water, third spot
Monin continues to see his lead erode, with 279 against Freshley’s 320! It’s down to 170 now!
Yorba Linda Water, Melton Recall replacement [outcome called for Al Nederhood]
MWDOC Division 4 [outcome called for Joan Finnegan]
Measure GG [outcome called for “NO”]
- Measure OO
Yow! Big day for “NO”! YES adds 692, but NO adds 899, cutting the lead from 320 to 113!
And that’s why you read all of the way to the bottom!
See you on Monday, unless Neal Kelley releases some more results before then after all!
Josh was saying he’s BEHIND 187 votes.
I know — I’ve fixed it. Too excited over Josh’s OC surge and Jose’s catching up to think clearly.
I was at the ROV the past two days. Disney is paying hermandad mexicana to challenge latino ballots.
Paul, if you have any proof of that, or failing that at least your own detailed witness testimony, or failing THAT at least can identify people who were witnesses to whom I can talk, then please contact me with it. If you don’t have any of that, what’s the basis of your statement?
Well, Paul will no doubt be here eventually to answer that, but I called him immediately when I read his comment.
1. He says Disney paid Hermandad Mexicana (Nativo Lopez’ old group) $30,000 to put out an IE trying to get Latinos to vote for Jordan. (I did’t ask him how he knows that.)
2. Two days ago, he saw five of them there, challenging Jose votes from Latinos – on what basis he didn’t catch.
3. He says Josh Newman’s counters told them to leave, because they were also endangering Josh’s victory, and they left.
Hermandad Mexicana (as far as I know it’s still Larry “Nativo Lopez’ group) had received a 30k donation from Disney/SOAR to do an I.E. On behalf of Brandman Kring SOAR slate. I’ve seen the literature with my own eyes as I was walking precincts for Moreno and its been aptly reported bat as well.
I did not witness the challenges by Nativos people but came just after to hear reports of said behavior by both the staffers from the Senate Dems as well as HERE staff and I saw with my own two eyes Hermandad Mexicana staff monitoring ballot counts and their HERE and Senste Dem shadows. The cross over of Newman and Quirks districts in Anaheim drew the ire of the Senate Dems who confronted the Brandman campaign to ask WTF you doin of Brandman.
OK, I accept what you say there about Disney having given money to Nativo Lopez’s group, and about their monitoring ballots, and having brought major challenges at some point during the count.
But I’m not sure about is whether Disney has specifically instructed them to make these challenges, essentially to shield itself against charges of racism in doing so. And I also have questions about the extent and the timing of these challenges — has it been in the last two days, or did it come earlier? You could be right, and your inferences seem reasonable — but that’s not the same as having solid evidence. It seems like the Senate damage people and the United hear people might have it though, so when it comes time to tell the whole story, I guess I’ll have to go try to find them.
And Disney truly is going to have to answer for what you did, if it did push for the wholesale rejection of legitimately cast Latino ballots. I don’t know what they were thinking, but they’re going to find out that they shouldn’t have thought it.
Thanks for telling us what you know personally – it really does help.
Disney/SOAR has funneled money to Brandman Kring using Hermandad Mexicana as a pass through for i.e.s to benefit SOAR slate candidates.
SO what exactly are the requirements for being a “vote challenger” ?? And somebody else can tell you to leave ?? How low is the bar set, or is there even a bar ? SMH.
I guess in a County that takes open walk-ins election free to fill vacant judgeships if no candidates come forward, there are no high expectations.
I think that if any truly open OC Superior Court judgeship appears anytime soon, Shaun Nelson will rush to fill it like sea water into an imploding submarine. So don’t worry about that problem for now.
P.S. We could do much worse.
Yes, and have, my reminder being the “Magic Vagina / Festivus ” judge Derek Johnson, as someone very familiar to me posted long ago in OJB
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2012/12/that-magic-vagina-1/
I actually had more interest in the “vote challenger” requirements, and hoped a poll-watcher like yourself would set me straight in a heartbeat.
Well, off to Google again. Oh, here we go-
From the OCRegistrars “Handbook for Election Observer Guidelines”-
Who Can Observe?
• Any member of the county grand jury, and at least one member each of the Republican County Central Committee, the Democratic County Central
Committee, any other party with a candidate on the ballot, and any other
interested organization may observe and challenge the manner in which the VBM ballots are handled, from the processing of ballot return envelopes through the ballot counting and disposition.
Elec. Code §15104(b)
What Can I Challenge?
Observers may challenge whether those individuals handling VBM ballots are following established procedures, including:
1. Verifying signatures and addresses by comparing them to voter registration information;
2. Duplicating accurately any damaged or defective ballots; and
3. Securing VBM ballots to prevent any tampering with them before they are counted on Election Day. Elec. Code §15104(d)
Challenges may be made for the same reasons as those made against a voter voting at a polling place, including that:
1. The voter is not the person whose name appears on the index of registered voters;
2. The voter is not a resident of the precinct;
3. The voter is not a citizen of the United States;
4. The voter has voted that day;
5. The voter is presently on parole for the conviction of a felony;
6. On the grounds that the ballot was not received within the time provided by law; or
7. A person is imprisoned for a conviction of a felony. Elec. Code §14240, 15105
—– SO,
Though the inclusion of Candidate and Party reps (for partisan races) is obvious, it is interesting that the Parties have again permitted themselves to place a thumb directly on the scales of that blindfolded Justice lady,
EXCLUDING non-affiliated individuals, while allowing PARTY reps supervision over what are supposedly NON-PARTISAN races, and WITHOUT definition of what are supposedly “interested Groups”. Should, say, the national KKK headquarters be allowed in while individual precinct residents are not ? I also see NO test for these “supervisors” for ANY of the prohibitions (non-resident, non-citizen, felony, probation, etc.) THEY are supposed to monitor !
Since Grand Jury reps are allowed, perhaps a revisit to these rules might be considered?
OOPS- Sorry, didn’t see your reply on my un-refreshed page until after this was posted.- BBx
I think that you have to be with a campaign, as Nativo Lopez’s pathetic zombie “Hermandad Mexicana” group is. (Well, I guess that Lopez needed the money more than Disney did….)
No one outside of the staff had the “right” to tell them to leave. But, like Jordan, they are Democrats, after all — and Jose Moreno has had the good luck to have Josh Newman engaged in a battle for the State Senate in an overlapping race.
That means that what might otherwise be an all-out assault on Latino-surnamed ballots by a supposedly Latino organization (which was expected to give Disney some plausible deniability on the “they’re racist” front) could be blunted — because (to the extent that the challenges were successful, which they haven’t been) they would at least delay Newman’s ascension to the State Senate, and those responsible would be held accountable by the party.
(That last clause part is a euphemism, of course.)
So nothing officially improper is happening here. It’s just fate (and political self-interest on the part of Disney’s paid minions) intervening on the side of Good. In the movie about this race — which I’m guessing will be made by Universal, heh-heh — it will be a hilarious subplot.
From the VOC today:
As Brandman’s lead has shrunk, the tension has increased and the tactics have changed inside the Registrar’s office. Challenges to provisional ballots (presumably by Brandman’s people because those ballots have skewed toward Moreno) skyrocketed to nearly 200 on Thursday, Kelley confirmed.
But Kelley said he determined only three of those ballots should be disqualified. “I stay out of the political stuff,” Kelley said. “I’m the umpire.”
That makes me think that perhaps insiders agree that Chang has lost, leaving Brandman open to be more aggressive with purging Latino voters. They want to have more challenged ballots out there than Moreno’s eventual lead — if only, I’d guess, to cost him money and perhaps delay his accession to the dais. Are they doing the same thing in Barnes’s race? They’d need to keep her out too in order to retain the majority for another short while. I wouldn’t put it past them.
I have to say, though — if Brandman’s folks really didn’t see this coming, then they’re idiots.
Kelley said “Only three.”
ROTFLMAO.