Welcome to the Democratic National Convention! Here’s the State of the Race as of Today!




Trump Leads Poll on Day 1 of DNC Convention

This diagram — based on what Nate Silver’s 538.com poll aggregator produced today and taken from there — shows Trump winning by a landslide if the election were to be held today.  (This after what we were assured was a disastrous convention.  Wow — it’s like some people aren’t correctly reading the public mood!)

This is pretty much EXACTLY the scenario that we Bernie Sanders supporters were envisioning when we said that it wasn’t over even when Hillary Clinton clinched the pledged delegate league — because events over the past seven weeks could have led people to reconsider whether it made sense to bet on Hillary.  It was not because we were pining for this sort of polling meltdown to happen — I find it terrifying, although not unexpected — but because it seemed pretty bloody obvious that it was well within the realm of possibility.  Because Hillary is so deeply disliked and distrusted, she was propped up by Trump’s being even more disliked.  If Trump ever dug himself out of the hold that he was in, we’d see a slaughter.  Something that looks a lot like this.

Now to be fair, Silver still predicts that Hillary will squeak by based on how the polls are expected to change.  That poll predicts that she’d win Pennsylvania and hold everything else.  I don’t know — I had hoped to be a bit more sure of things at this point.  And Silver’s been off target repeatedly this year, consistently underestimating populism.

Hillary supporters won the battle to shame and hector Bernie until he, for all intents and purposes, pulled out of the race!  Why did Hillary’s supporters work so hard and scream so loudly to drive him off?  As I predicted at the time, it was so that IF something like this happened, the convention delegates could not reasonably reconsider what might come to be seen as the deadly folly of nominating here: as I’ve put it repeatedly, the party would have to decide whether to follow Captain Ahab to the bottom of the sea.

Congratulations, Hillary supporters — you got your way and you’re getting the convention that will produce Her nomination. I hope, quite sincerely, that it doesn’t destroy the country — because the industrial midwest is reacting pretty much as predicted, and Hillary picked a candidate who does nothing to shore that up.

About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)