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This diagram — based on what Nate Silver’s 538.com poll aggregator produced today and taken from there — shows Trump winning by a landslide if the election were to be held today. (This after what we were assured was a disastrous convention. Wow — it’s like some people aren’t correctly reading the public mood!)
This is pretty much EXACTLY the scenario that we Bernie Sanders supporters were envisioning when we said that it wasn’t over even when Hillary Clinton clinched the pledged delegate league — because events over the past seven weeks could have led people to reconsider whether it made sense to bet on Hillary. It was not because we were pining for this sort of polling meltdown to happen — I find it terrifying, although not unexpected — but because it seemed pretty bloody obvious that it was well within the realm of possibility. Because Hillary is so deeply disliked and distrusted, she was propped up by Trump’s being even more disliked. If Trump ever dug himself out of the hold that he was in, we’d see a slaughter. Something that looks a lot like this.
Now to be fair, Silver still predicts that Hillary will squeak by based on how the polls are expected to change. That poll predicts that she’d win Pennsylvania and hold everything else. I don’t know — I had hoped to be a bit more sure of things at this point. And Silver’s been off target repeatedly this year, consistently underestimating populism.
Hillary supporters won the battle to shame and hector Bernie until he, for all intents and purposes, pulled out of the race! Why did Hillary’s supporters work so hard and scream so loudly to drive him off? As I predicted at the time, it was so that IF something like this happened, the convention delegates could not reasonably reconsider what might come to be seen as the deadly folly of nominating here: as I’ve put it repeatedly, the party would have to decide whether to follow Captain Ahab to the bottom of the sea.
Congratulations, Hillary supporters — you got your way and you’re getting the convention that will produce Her nomination. I hope, quite sincerely, that it doesn’t destroy the country — because the industrial midwest is reacting pretty much as predicted, and Hillary picked a candidate who does nothing to shore that up.
Nate Silver’s prediction is just a blend of many other polls, with his “tweaks” that he does not disclose. He updates these regularly, so we’ll see where he sits late in September, after the first debate. Nate has admitted that he is a pundit.
Looking at the international betting sites, Hillary still sits as a favorite ranging from 3.3:1 to 4:3:1. Regardless, California is a blue state lock.
Silver correctly predicted the results of all 50 States in 2012.
So there’s that.
Yes, he did – one week before the election. Look to see what his prediction was four months prior. He also badly missed predictions on Trump’s nomination and the last UK Parliment election.
For Nate to offer his predictions prior to September, he is playing a pundit more than accurate predictor.
Of course the statistics become more clear as we get closer to the election.
But he was, as I recall, the only prominent statistician who went 50-for-50 on that prediction. I distinctly remember the pundits on Fox News sitting around laughing about his predictions.
Fox pundits laughing at someone predicting an Obama landslide…. Go figure.
Again, all Silver does is aggregate a bunch of other polls that he has a bunch of interns track and follow using statistical regression analyses. He also “kicks out” polls that show a high standard deviation from the others.
He famously predicted a year ago that Trump would never, never, get the nomination, later printing a 5,700 word apology where he acknowledged his role as a pundit early in the process, attempting to affect outcomes, rather than accurately predict them.
As we get closer to the election, his predictions will get more accurate. Commenting on his figures prior to late September is folly.
Also, landslide victories are, statistically, much easier to predict than close elections (2012, when he went 50 for 50 and Fox pundits were laughing).
This early in the process, I look to those who put cold hard cash on the line, the international odds-makers (bookies), who have Hillary at 3.3:1 – 4.3:1 odds favorite – in line with the NYTimes 74% prediction.
If someone believes in Nate Silver’s early predictions now, empty your retirement accounts and put all your money on Trump. Every $100 investment would pay $175. That’s almost more than a 300% annualized return.
Thanks for the smart commentary, Alan. I should note, though, that this particular poll is not a “prediction”; it’s a present-day aggregation of where the polls in the 50 states stand right now. His prediction remains that Hillary wins — barely.
“It’s another Pleasant Valley Sunday……here in status symbol land….” said the Monkey’s.