Believe me, I don’t want to do this, but I have to make the offer.
A drastic provocation calls for a drastic response. And so, I find myself impelled to make the following offer: if I can be satisfied that Probolsky’s Associates new poll on behalf of 47th Congressional district candidate Gary DeLong, which shows Delong leading his opponent Sen. Alan Lowenthal by a 53-44 margin, is truly an accurate reflection of the current state of our best estimate ofthe electorate, I will accompany Adam Probolsky to his next trip to the barbershop and I will eat his hair clippings. (That’s a serious sacrifice for me, especially because I’m a vegetarian.)
I don’t expect to have to make good on such a stomach-churning bet, though. The Probolsky Associates report, which may be found in a one-page PDF at this link, is the sort of thing that one expects to see from a campaign desperate for attention and not above a little warping of reality. They want publicity for this result? Gladly!
My first hint that I would not have to feast on Probolsky’s retreating locks came when I checked out the link I found to the story, which led to a “404 Page Not Found” error. But as you can see above, I was eventually able to find it on the unforgiving Internet.
The sample of 400 respondents was from a few days in June and July, although the data was just released on Thursday (with Wednesday’s date). That’s another warning sign. But that’s not the BIG warning sign. The big warning sign is this:
(Ready? Take a deep breath, because this is going to be good.)
As Sarah Bennett of the Long Beach Post notes, the DeLong campaign had already previously released results from this poll! And when they had previously released the results from this poll, the results were that Lowenthal was up by 3 points!
So, somehow, while the results festered for a couple of months in a petri dish in the Probolsky Associates laboratory, Gary DeLong somehow picked up twelve points on Alan Lowenthal! This is really impressive stuff. If Walter Mondale had had access to this technology in 1984 and left it with Probolsky for a few more months, he might have beaten Ronald Reagan for the Presidency!
The Lowenthal campaign came up with a response showing that Lowenthal is up by 20 points — and I’m not making any bets about that one. That sort of result why DeLong is sending up a huge flare to capture the attention of funders — ANYBODY! — who might take his effort seriously. Maybe Lowenthal’s lead is half of that; in any event, it’s probably pretty big, or else we wouldn’t see this apparent flim-flammery.
I’m not inclined to let this go, though. I would like to issue a challenge to Adam Probolsky, who can meet me, in public, with a bag of his hair in hand if he’d like. I would like him to say whether this poll and its description represents his firm’s best work, or its average quality work, or its “not something we’re proud of but we had to do something so let’s just put all of this unpleasantness behind us” level work. I ask this because at this moment, Probolsky Associates is perched on the precipice of never being taken seriously again — imagine “remember, they’re the ones who did that DeLong poll, ha-ha!” gets appended to their every report — and I would hope that sheer self-preservation would prompt them to want to clarify things a bit (and possibly announce that they have terminated the high-school intern who presumably put out this press release.)
Gary DeLong — have some pity and let them set the record straight!
Disclaimer: like Lowenthal, I’m a Democratic candidate in Orange County; our districts overlap in Cypress and Stanton. So that may reflect bias on my part — although frankly I’m probably better off if the CA-47 race is close, so that more voters are dragged out to the polls. But I’m putting aside such personal considerations this time. This is beyond normal puffery and frou-frou in polling. This should be embarrassing for them — and as both a trained survey researcher from my grad school days and a political operative since, I really want them to accept the embarrassment, even if it means having to bring attention to their silliness by threatening to eat someone’s hair.
We need a third poll not sponsored by either candidate to find the real truth.
It’s apparently not a very competitive race. Given a choice, I’d rather see one in CA-39 or CA-45.
What is a “Researcher fro”?
I’m thinking, joe, that a researcher fro is an entirely different sort of hairdo than the shameless hulking Probolsky sports. For example, John Nichols of the Nation and MSNBC has a fine Researcher Fro. (google it!)
I run into Probolsky here and there and we joke and chit-chat, and sometimes I get some hot gossip off of him, so I don’t want to be too mean. But then again, he tells me that he’s “proudly part of the 1%” so I guess he can take it.
But seriously, Greg, “perched on the precipice of never being taken seriously again?” If Adam could hoist his bulk back ONTO that precipice, he would be back where he was MANY political seasons ago. Don’t make me go finding examples from the OJ archives. He gives whoever pays him whatever results they want, always has. Nobody takes his polls seriously any more. (Well, maybe sometimes the Register, how would they know any better?)
I can’t recall ever seeing a researcher give somebody what they want — and then go back to the same poll, rejigger it, and give them something that they would have wanted even more if the researcher had had the gumption and gall to go with it originally. That’s notable.
If your point is that, in hiring Probolsky, Gary DeLong was simply telling voters, writers, and donors that he did not wish to be taken seriously, then I guess I have to concede it. I will henceforth try to act accordingly, so long as nobody does accidentally take one of his polls (at least in CA-47) seriously.
Yeah, you’re right, this IS new ground even for the shameless hulk.
It is as though he had dove off that precipice while wielding a shovel and making digging movements… And then kept going.
My mistak. That was supposed to be “researche fro.” I’ll fi it. Thank.
Probolsky has no credibility. His polls are a joke. I don’t know why anyone would pay him for a poll. I guess the insecure candidates will pay to read inaccurate information.
Excellent story Vern. I don’t think you have to worry too much about eating Probolsky’s hair. The slant of his analysis, and numbers, is so obvious that even Delong knows they’re fiction.
That was my story, not Vern’s, Chris! I’m not worried at all about having to eat his hair. My question is: did DeLong know that Probolsky was going to try something like this before he published it — or is this just a “bonus”? It’s a bit like putting a sign on DeLong’s website saying “don’t bother donating to this campaign, we know we’re doomed.”
may i suggest baking the hair into a pie. makes for good eating i have heard.
You may suggest anything you want. Within bounds. Which you probably just bumped up against.
who is adam probolsky and why does he matter
He’s a Republican pollster from (as I recall) Irvine — apparently he’s either Gary DeLong’s pollster or a clever ruse.
He’s very good at self-promotion. The OC Register takes him seriously. The dubious conclusions of his dubious polls are spewed forth as somehow credible. And you know how that is, sometimes they can create their own reality.
Jeezsuz Diamond. You’re vegetarian. Pedroza is vegetarian Sean Mill is a vegetarian. And each one of you is as big as a house. ( though Pedroza will soon be as big as a two bedroom apartment). WTF?
Starch.