The First Big Poll is out on the Newly Numbered Props

Hiram Johnson

"Ohhhh, Hiram Johnson -- what have you done?"

We have eleven mostly interesting ballot propositions in store in November.  The first poll on the whole batch, so far as I am aware, just came out — and it gives us an idea of where we’re starting from.  I’m just taking this data directly from Scott Lay’s “The Nooner”; as it’s just a tabulation of poll results I believe that it is fair game.

These are the results of an online polls conducted by the California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine School of Public Policy.  The Nooner has a link to the crosstabs here.  I’ve color-coded the titles — green=yes, red=no, amber=unsure — to match Vern’s recommendations from an earlier post.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Strongly Yes: 20.2%
Somewhat Yes: 17.3%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 23.6%

TOTAL YES: 56.2%
TOTAL NO: 39.2%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.9%
Somewhat Yes: 13.6%
Leaning Yes: 29.5%
Leaning No: 20.0%
Somewhat No: 5.7%
Strongly No: 7.9%

TOTAL YES: 51.0%
TOTAL NO: 33.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.2%
Somewhat Yes: 18.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.6%
Leaning No: 10.3%
Somewhat No: 7.0%
Strongly No: 11.6%

TOTAL YES: 60.0%
TOTAL NO: 28.9%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 16.5%
Somewhat Yes: 18.7%
Leaning Yes: 24.0%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 6.1%
Strongly No: 11.9%

TOTAL YES: 59.3%
TOTAL NO: 28.7%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 11.8%
Leaning Yes: 14.1%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 7.1%
Strongly No: 28.9%

TOTAL YES: 45.5%
TOTAL NO: 46.7%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 49.3%
Somewhat Yes: 20.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 3.6%
Somewhat No: 1.8%
Strongly No: 1.0%

TOTAL YES: 88.2%
TOTAL NO: 6.4%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.1%
Somewhat Yes: 23.4%
Leaning Yes: 25.3%
Leaning No: 7.3%
Somewhat No: 4.5%
Strongly No: 7.2%

TOTAL YES: 71.7%
TOTAL NO: 19.0%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 27.2%
Somewhat Yes: 19.6%
Leaning Yes: 18.1%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 7.6%
Strongly No: 6.2%

TOTAL YES: 64.9%
TOTAL NO: 23.9%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.2%
Somewhat Yes: 10.5%
Leaning Yes: 17.3%
Leaning No: 12.1%
Somewhat No: 14.0%
Strongly No: 28.1%

TOTAL YES: 35.0%
TOTAL NO: 54.2%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 18.4%
Somewhat Yes: 14.0%
Leaning Yes: 23.0%
Leaning No: 9.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 12.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.4%
TOTAL NO: 27.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum (to change current lines.)

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 16.0%
Leaning Yes: 19.9%
Leaning No: 10.6%
Somewhat No: 4.2%
Strongly No: 6.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.7%
TOTAL NO: 21.5%

(Note: I am personally responsible for Vern’s non-endorsement of the very popular — suspiciously popular — Prop 35; I expect to write about that in the next week or two.  Teaser: if it were actually about human trafficking, I’d support it, but it’s mostly not — and most of the non-lawyer proponents don’t get it.)


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Corrupt party hacks hate him. He's OK with that too. He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)