RELEASE THE KRAKENETTES! When someone like Diane Harkey can't even break into the top two of bizarre and wacky GOP women on the primary ballot, you KNOW that we're in for an interesting election!
Here are the fearless predictions from Orange Juice Blog staff and prominent commenters for the June election. In four races, our prognosticators have been asked to choose an exact percentage of the vote.
VERN NELSON, editor:
Damn. I don’t really feel like making predictions, and there are only a few races tomorrow that I care a whole lot about. I WILL state “realistic preferences” for those, what I’m rooting for, with my fingers crossed:
Most importantly – WISCONSIN – for Scott Walker to be recalled. And by a wide enough margin that we won’t be suffering through recounts for the next five months. I know that’s not a local race exactly, but we DID make Scott Walker run away when he came to Newport for dough last December.
AD 69. Resigned to the slippery and unscrupulous corporatist Tom Daly making it thru the top-two primary, I’m hoping that his opponent turns out to be Julio Perez, for a real black-and-white, good-and-evil contrast, as opposed to the flaky Michele Martinez, who only aspires to be the sort of politician Daly is.
FULLERTON. Still feeling bold, but unsure of what a Bushala majority would actually do, I’m rooting for the recall but hope only one of Tony’s guys wins. That could be Travis for a Rowe-Rands-Kiger victory, or Sebourn for a Rowe-Sebourn-Georgieff victory. This seems totally unpredictable as long as Republicans are evenly divided between keeping the old guard and replacing them with ultra-conservatives; it all depends on Democrats, progressives and independents coming out. Like all these races do!
AD 74. (Newport/Costa Mesa/Huntington) I’d love to see Bob Rush get through the top-two primary to face either troglodyte Mansoor or big-money empty-suit Daigle. Not sure how likely that is, it all depends on you Dems, independents, and Geoff-West-lunchbox-Republicans down there to carry the day. Then in the summer and Fall, Rush/Mansoor or Rush/Daigle would be a VERY interesting race that I would cover a lot.
AD 72. (Huntington/Westminster/FV etc) I hope that Godzilla Troy Edgar and King Kong Travis Allen beat each other up enough that my friend Joe Dovinh can sneak in. I’ve had my differences with Joe, but at least I know he’d probably usually vote the right way if he got in. On the other hand, a Godzilla vs. King Kong Edgar/Allen showdown lasting FIVE MORE MONTHS would be very pleasing (AND expensive to the Republican Party) so maybe THAT’S the best outcome. Well, however it shakes out, I’ll be paying attention to it starting next week. Oh – here’s something you don’t see every day … unless you happen to drive up the 405:
And I thought Troy Edgar was the big-money candidate!
I’m also hoping that RON PAUL gets enough votes in California to help make things difficult and awkward for Mitt Romney come the convention, as well as let Republican leadership know that a huge chunk of their grass roots wants an end to endless wasteful war and a restoration of their civil liberties lost under both Bush and Obama. (I did MY bit!)
Those are pretty much the only things I care much about tomorrow. Of course I hope my friends Greg Diamond, Ron Varasteh, Steve Young, and Sharon Q-S (and Jay Chen / D’Marie) get reasonably close to a respectable 40% in their races so that the Democratic Party at least considers helping them a little in the months to come.
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GREG DIAMOND, associate editor. Predictions and Preferences:
President: Prefer: Barack H. Obama (Democratic), Ron Paul (Republican); Predict: Obama, RomneyJudge: the incumbent
*County School Board 1: Prefer: Eleazar Elizondo; Predict: Nguyen (with less than 50%); Elizondo edges Hammond for spot in runoff
Prop 28 (term limit reform): Prefer and Predict Yes
**Prop 29 (cigarette tax): Prefer and Predict Yes,
County Measure B (mild pension reform): Prefer and Predict Yes
Brea City Measure E (school bond): Prefer and Predict Yes
OJ Contributors, add in your thoughts here!
Mika Wallace, our Occupy correspondent: “I agree with Greg on everything except for Prop 29. I voted No. I smell a rat…too many unknowns. And we can’t do anything about it for 15 years.” (Vern: I voted no on both Propositions. I have no problem with term limits the way they are. And I see no reason to believe that another dollar of cig taxes would be administered any better than the first 50 cents is now on “First Five.” Now, if this tax were going right to the General Fund, it might be another story…)
Matt Munson, our young rebellious Republican correspondent:
President: Romney is going to win the majority of the districts. Ron Paul decided to make a dumb move to not invest much money after his tours of the universities of our state. I am fearful that Romney will make a clean sweep of California, Ron was relying on the caucuses and states that offer delegates by conventions. Unfortunately it is winner take all by congressional district. I am hoping for Ron to at least win San Fransisco and Oakland areas.Voters are sadly brainwashed by the mainstream media and will accept Romney as the defacto choice without questioning it.
US Senate: Rick Williams is my choice, but I am fearful that it will be Feinstein, then Orly Taitz.
Congressional District 39: Most likely Royce and Chen. As a Republican I would be tempted to vote for Ed Royce, but sadly most incumbents do need to be flushed down the drain.
Congressional District 46: Loretta is still popular no matter what happens to her, but the Republican will in the top 2 to run against Loretta in November.
Congressional District 47: Alan Lowenthal has the name ID, but Gary DeLong will join Alan in November.
State Senate 29: The margin for Huff and Diamond will be tough to determine for the June election since the Presidential Primary leans Republican this year. I am guessing 61R/39D now and 55R/45D in November.
Assembly District 65: Norby, he is an independent thinker who was against redevelopment agencies before Jerry Brown made that movement cool.
Assembly District 72: Travis Allen will be the front runner, he comes from money and that is why he will be the front runner.
Assembly District 74: Leslie Daigle will be my choice due to being sponsored by Charles Munger where she will be the front runner. Allan Mansoor will be the second finisher due to his incumbency.
Proposition 28: No is my vote, I do not want to be stuck with Bob Huff for 8 more years. But people got bamboozled and will vote Yes for this.
Proposition 29: Yes is my vote, I do not want taxpayers to be stuck paying for future tobacco related cancer patients. Less people smoke tobacco products, less people get sick, less people have to pay for their medical bills. Sometimes you have to waste money to save money.
OC Board of Education:
Seat 1: Art Pedroza will be my wildcard pick.
Seat 3: Ken Williams
OC Board of Supervisors
District 3: Todd will beat Deborah Pauly, even though it would be tempting to see her as a BOS member.
Gabriel San Roman, independent progressive correspondent:
I predict that everything I prefer will lose…and BIG! Especially all my de facto NOTA (none of the above) blanks!
President: Here’s to hoping that Jill Stein doesn’t lose to the attraction of celebrity that is represented by Rosanne Barr and her embarrassing Zeitgeist documentary politics. (Green Party)
U.S. Senate: No Duane Roberts this year? Pick from one of the two Peace and Freedom Party candidates.
Prop. 28: NO!
Prop. 29: NO!
* To borrow the all CAPS ‘A LA CHINGADA CON’ refrain of ¡ Ask A Mexican! *
Fulas Recall: A LA CHINGADA CON los tres cacahuates! Jane Rands for Bankhead’s silla!
WisCompton Recall: A LA CHINGADA CON Scott Walker!
That’s it for me, for now. See you in November, cabrones!
Ron and Ana Winship, our old-school but moderate Republican correspondents:
Duane Roberts, angry Green correspondent:
Am I forgetting anyone else?
The rest of y’all, don’t forget to vote tomorrow if you haven’t!
Gentlemen,
County Board of Education races are winner take all. Top 2 do not advance to November.
Now that you mention it, that rings a bell. I know that other (all?) county offices have a 50% threshold for an outright win in the primary, and is makes so little sense to me that OCBOE would be an exception to that rule that I guess I suppress the information.
So do you have a call to make on that, Chris? (I don’t recall whether you did on ‘Tical.) I find it the hardest race of any to handicap, and to my shame I am mostly going by who has the most street signs.
Baxter sends in his “SLATE MAILER” for the Fullerton Recall:
My firm is running the Hammond race so I don’t see it all that clearly.
@Matt — the rule change in Prop 28 applies only to those first elected in November. It would affect me, but not Huff. I promise not to spend more than three terms in the State Senate.
Greg, are you saying that it is A-OK for prop 28 to discriminate against current office holders?
How does the new law get around the 14 amendment (equal protection) and Ca consitution Art I Sec. 9. and sec. 10 of the US constitution (no law can apply retroactively)?
Current officers remain under the previous law, so there’s no ex post facto problem, and there wouldn’t be even if ex post facto clause applied to this sort of law, which it does not. So much for Article 1, Secs. 9-10.
“Current officeholders” are not a cognizable class for 14th amendment purposes. Gays and lesbians have the same problem, incidentally.
Feeling a bit surly today, so consider that when reading these predictions for a few of the contests:
Fullerton – can it just be over, one way or the other? I am tired of hearing about Fullerton.
Couinty Supervisor 3 – Spitzer by a landslide, leaving us to wonder what the Schroeders will try to do to him now.
County Measure A and B – Yes – Even though they will not make County government any better
Prop. 28 – Term limit reform – yes (we’ll try most anything to try and fix Sacramento)
Prop. 29 – Cigarette tax – No (people are not supportive of tax increases)
Congress 45 – Kang, folllowed by Campbell (If you are happy with Congress, vote for Campbell in November. If not, then Kang is your man)
Republican Central Committee – Same old, same old even though new perspective is needed.
Okay, the polls are almost closed. Can you please take down the picture of Orly Taitz?
She looks like Michael Keaton as Betelgeuse (Beetlejuice), and she scares me.
I’m pretty sure you’ll be seeing much more of her between now and November.
I hope we can sponsor an Orly Tatiz drag queen contest.
Only if YOU compete!
Matt, that’s a brilliant idea.
I’m just used to the drag queens looking more feminine.
As of Wed. AM, looks like I got 5 out of 7. I missed on Congress 45 and County Measure A. Guess the voters, by rejecting A, are saying they don’t trust the County Supervisors to do any better than the voters at selecting a Public Administrator, and probably do worse! In hindsight, it is hard to quarrel with that. So, how does the position get filled now? Is there a rush of potential candidates eager to appear on the November ballot? Look for some familiar names to show up in that herd.
Oh yeah sure, John Q Public knows how to choose a Public Administrator. Who knows or cares what the job entails? Just, whoever gets on the most Republican slate mailers!
(Not quarreling with you, amigo, but with the voters.)