Let’s set the “feel good” emotions of high-speed rail aside for some realism. For over 50 years I have enjoyed the rush of high-speed starting with my involvement in drag racing to our recent trip on the maglev train in China. That said let’s look at some numbers, especially as some proponents point out that China provides high-speed passenger service.
The Wuhan-Guagzhou CRH high-speed line covers 601 miles. Two of its 21 trains provide non-stop service between those two major cities in 3 hours. Wuhan has a population of 9.7 million people while Guangzhou’s population is 10.25 million. Their local HSR trains, covering the same starting and finishing point, provides service at Xinaning-[population 2.8 million]; Chibi–[population 500,000]; Yueyang-[-population 5.5 million]; Changsha-[-population 6.6 million]; Zhuzhou-[-population 3.7 million[; Hengyang-[-population 7.2 million[; Shaoguan-[-population 3.1 million] and tiny Huadu whose population is a paltry 650,000.
So this entire high-speed rail system, in a nation of 1.3 billion people, provides service for over 50 million people between 10 stations.
Let’s cross the ocean and check out the proposed CA HSR service from Sac and SF to LA extending down to SD based on their own reports. Depending on which day you check the HSRA has several options based on phasing. According to my analysis our HSRA is considering service between 25 stations in an 800 mile span. Adding up the population of those cities you will get approximately 11.3 million people or 22 percent of the potential ridership when compared to China. And don’t be misled by statements that each of these cities will draw from their neighboring cities as I could make the same case for China who population is four times the USA.
Those potential HSR cities are: Sacramento; Stockton; Modesto; Merced; SF; Milbrae; Redwood City; San Jose; Gilroy; Fresno; Visalia/Tulare; Bakersfield; Palmdale; Sylmar; Burbank; LA; Pomona; Norwalk/Fullerton; Ontario; San Bernardino; Riverside; Anaheim; Murrieta; Escondido; Univercity City and San Diego.
“Prop 1A mandates a maximum time for travel between LA and SF to be 2 hours and 40 minutes.” With that fixed requirement will these trains stop to pick up anyone at the numerous stops along the way or will they be left on the platforms holding their hats as the empty bullet passes them by?
We must keep our ears and eyes open as we listen to the proponents effort to convince us that CA HSR will be a success in our state 20 to 30 years down the road, or should I say down the line from now.
China HSR
*Build it and they will come…..”
rw
Happy Anniversary to the Winships.
Both today and tomorrow whichever day you choose to celebrate. I would do both.
Only if they are on Viagra, Winships!.
Another great HSR article Larry. I particularly like the thought of empty trains flying by bewildered folks at the stops they will have to bypass to make their required time frame. Sadly, we (the taxpayers) will be subsidizing those empty trains. Maybe one day they libs on here will even start to take notice.
“…will these trains stop to pick up anyone at the numerous stops along the way or will they be left on the platforms holding their hats as the empty bullet passes them by?”
Is this one of those “Pedrozian” questions that tries to make an issue out of a non-issue, or are you actually going to research that and come up with a concrete answer?
You’re giving me the choice of believing the estimates of rail engineers or Larry Gilbert? Until I see impeccably researched statistics that tell me otherwise, I gotta go with the rail engineers.
anon.
Do your homework. Start with the ballot measure text where the train MUST travel from SF to LA in 2 hours and 40 minutes MAX.
Now look at the numerous stops along the rails which the HSRA is selling us.
Another opponent in northern CA sent me the following tongue in cheek assessment. I would not call it a joke as this is a serious and costly project.
“Prop 1 A mandates a maximum time for travel between LA and SF to be 2 hours and 40 minutes. The ONLY way to make this work is to limit stops at each of the 10 non-metro stations to 90 seconds. Yes, that’s right 90 seconds for a long distance train where people board with their bags, kids and strollers. Some may even be in wheel chairs or on crutches. Since CHRSA has only budgeted $ 9 million for PR, to help save money I helped out by writing the conductor’s announcement:
“Attention passengers. Our next stop is Redwood City Station. This train is traveling at 110 MPH so please remain seated until the train comes to a complete stop at Redwood City Station. Once the train stops immediately grab your suitcase, kids, lunch and backpack and rush for the doors because this train only stops for 90 seconds, Yes, 90 seconds, so get ready to move and I mean MOVE. You are authorized to use whatever means are needed to squeeze past embarking passengers. Please note that High Speed Rail personnel will collect any belongings left behind and store them in the lost and found at the next stations. We hope you don’t have anything fragile in your lost items because we have to throw them out the window for collections by station staff since we have only 90 seconds in the station.
Why do you ask do we only stop for 90 seconds? Well the ballot proposition that authorized high speed rail in California requires that we travel between San Francisco and Los Angeles in no more that 2:40. If we’re lucky there will be no delays and we will be exactly on time giving you a full 90 seconds to gather your belongings and depart the train. On the other hand, if we are delayed we may have to reduce the time spent in stations.”
While there is more in his email I’ll stop here.
anon. Unlike the rail engineers I have no investment in this project nor do I intend to purchase any of the Bonds if they are ever released. I am not the Lone Ranger when it relates to opposition to this special interest project. Friends in DC and SAC are in agreement with me that CA HSR funding must be shut down.
When we are discussing billions of dollars that my friend is not chump change. Some powerful players have a lot at stake to see this dream project become a reality. Equipment producers, Bond sellers and a long list of others. Some of them do not live in this country or state while our local kids and grandkids will be shortchanged as our limited resources go to this project rather than education or public safety. Take your pick.
*Anaheim may not be Kyoto or Beijing…..LAPD may not be the KNVD either. Comparison are
at best weak sisters in the analogy department. Stan needs to go to a variety of websites
which will stimulate his libido – at least that is what it sounds like.
All in all, people usually will try new technology out once just to see if it is working or good.
HSR…..affordably priced will be one of those things which will need to pass the test of time.
To the dear Gilbert…..right back at you guys. Happy Birthday to Carolyn and of course
Happy Anniversary too. Thanks for the nice cards!
For Curt Pringle…..”ding hao”!
rw
Ron & Anna.
Do your remembver when we were selected to road test some new GM vehicles on the El Toro base?
How many people get behind the wheel to see if they like the vehicle? There is a minor difference here. Road testing of HSR will cost us upwards of $85 billion dollars.
As reported earlier I took a high speed rail “road test” at the Vancouver Canada Fair around 25 years ago. It was a short ride just to test it out. That is not what is being shoved down our throats today.
Sidebar. For those who reference the $9.95 billion Bond $950 million of that total is NOT to be used for the HSR.
HSR is not for California and especially not for Southern California. It would just be a waste of lots of money, something we certainly can’t afford now. Anyone who is pushing it, is really STUPID or a Cloward & Piven fan!
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/clowardpiven_government.html
It makes me laugh when I think about it. All the pushers of this monstrosity yakking away blowing smoke and looking really dumb.
Another project in California that will ultimately become urban blight! Routes will have to be continually reduced and cut back . . . But, then again, why am I laughing, I’m footing the f’king bill!!
AND, their threatening to put up the $11 Billion Water bond on the ballot in June?!
Well, Liberty, I’m gonna join you in opposing that Water boondoggle. That’s a scam for big Agribusiness.
Water water, we all need water and we all need food.
Jim.
Yes, it’s true we need water.
Yet roads, power and water infrastructure are taken for granted by developers and city officials who approve thousands of additional housing projects in our state that for the most part is a desert. We just returned from a brief vacation in Palm Springs. At our front door this morning was a USA Today newspaper. It’s front page headline reminds me of a discussion I had with Ed Royce, Sr. almost 12 years ago. “Toilets to tap.”
Typical pro-car bullshit from the same idiotic neocon morons who infest the USA and who also (sadly) vote. But what else is new?