While there is a good chance that Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez will lose her seat to Republican Van Tran this November, Democrats should take heart. If State Senator Lou Correa wins in his reelection battle, he will be primed to run for Sanchez’ seat in 2012.
How would Correa fare against Congressman Tran? I think he would trounce him.
Consider that Tran has been careful not to appear too involved with his possible replacement in the State Assembly, Allan Mansoor, even though Mansoor’s campaign manager is one of Tran’s associates – Daisy Tong. Tran simply doesn’t want to anger Correa, and with good reason. The amiable Correa is very popular in Little Saigon.
Correa has never forgotten his voter base, unlike Sanchez, but he hasn’t had to pander to Viets the way she has. He has simply, quietly, reached out to them – and he has succeeded.
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I would definitely love to see “Congressman Lou Correa” in the near future. Lou is a good man who represents the values of his district well. If Loretta does lose I certainly hope everyone would rally behind Lou’s candidacy should he choose to go that direction.
While there is a good chance that Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez will lose her seat to Republican Van Tran this November
Nate Silver’s 538 model predicts a 95% probability of a Sanchez victory. Since when are 19-to-1 odds “a good chance”?
tyler,
I did not know about this Nate Silver model, but no one predicted Sanchez would beat Dornan either. This November is looking grim for Democratic incumbents and Sanchez has had to work hard to recapture her base. It will be an interesting election to be sure!
Sanchez should win but IF Tran pulls off an upset…he will own that seat until he is a very old man. Tran’s got great political game and will not give up this seat.
I really don’t believe Lou will do much better with a established well funded than Loretta.
My prediction is that Loretta wins by 6,000 votes. Not going to be close.
I thought it would be close with many Latinos staying home or the other non voting factors but the same issues facing Latinos with this economy Vietnamese are also facing.
Ceci will not be a factor as Latinos will realize that she is just not a” Latina runnning as Congress” as the people who gathered signature told us but she is a “Latina who will cost Latinos a congressional seat, possibly going to a anti-Latino Vietnamese immmigrant. Not good!
If Lorretta loses what makes anybody believe she will go away and not be smart enough to realize that in two years, with a Presdential election and a year after redistricting, the 47th will be easier for her to unseat VanTran. She will be pissed and I’m sure she has lenty of wealthy donors.
Imagine, lorretta, Lou and another candidate.Correa on the other hand would probably split the Latino vote with Correa and allow for either a Dunn or Umberg to challenge Tran in the General election. It was how Lorretta faced Dornan, Prince and Faber split votes that was over 50 percent. Bottom line, Loretta will not ride in the sunset.
Lou Correa has $770,675.43 cash on hand as of 9/30/2010. That is way nearly 20 times what Lucille Kring has as of 9/30/2010 ($43,717.16). Lou is still fundraising so he is planning on something. Since he does not have the name recognition for a statewide seat (as of now), the 47th congressional district seat is a logical choice for him if Loretta loses.
Incumbents can raise money. Heck , even incumbents for the minority part can raise money…Spitzer has over 1 million.
I hope having $770,675.43 is worth being a an active participant in one of greediest, clueless, schemes that will lead to many muni’s downfall. THe pension parachuts.
We already cuuting public safety, putting criminals on the streets, cutting education and cutting everything else that makes sense.
I thought by now the people would be fed up, society’s ills related to state mismangement would have been more disasterous but we seem to just be kicking the can, the problem down the road. The problem is that there has to be a brick wall around the corner.
Yes, Lou has money but what does he have to show the voters, not the special interests, what is obvious a failure in responsible governance.
I would love to see Congressman Lou Correa…….that being said…..Van tran has a lot of work to do.
He’s trailing by 11points……and yeah Nate Silver gives him a 5% chance of taking this seat.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/california/47
Surely, you know who Nate Silver is Art.
“If Lorretta loses what makes anybody believe she will go away and not be smart enough to realize that in two years, with a Presdential election and a year after redistricting, the 47th will be easier for her to unseat VanTran. She will be pissed and I’m sure she has lenty of wealthy donors.”
Dornan tried that comeback model in another election. He lost. Once she is gone it’s Molly Maids for Lorreta I’m afraid!
And now….a little music to start your day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIx7k2gYT1I
“and yeah Nate Silver gives him a 5% chance of taking this seat.”
You may be right but then why is Lorretta so worried?
> You may be right but then why is Lorretta so worried?
Because the Democrats are having an incredibly difficult time motivating their base to go to the polls and vote for its candidates.
The outcome of an election is contingent on people who actually go and vote and not what they tell pollsters on the telephone.
Because it’s not 100%. Art should have said” while there is a good chance Loretta will “KEEP’ her seat”, but Loretta is going to have to work very hard. Plus will the Vietnamese vote come out strong for Phu and also back Van Tran?…That would suck.
I think the wind is in her sails….but the district was drawn to protect B-1 Bob.
Exciting mid terms for OC politics…..
“and yeah Nate Silver gives him a 5% chance of taking this seat.”
And I suppose old Nate Silver predicted Janet Nguyen would beat Tom Umberg and all the employee union money too when she ran for county Sup. These polls can’t predict a Viet vote. Not when the votes keep rolling in for several weeks after the election like they do each and every time.
It may be close, very close.
If Tran’s home was in Orange County instead of near Sacramento, who knows.
Demographics
Latino… 68 @40% ? US voters and maybe half will vote = 14%
Viet ……15 @ 99% US voters and 99% will vote ……… ..= 14%
White… 19 @ 99% US voters and 20 to 80% will vote? …= ??
Looks like the white voters are in the catbird seat.
And then all of those new voters moving into the 47th, establishing residents for voting and then reregistering outside the 47th after the election.
Correa/Sanchez = two “moderate” Democrats…
Forgive my lack of excitement.
Actually from what we’ve seen of Lou’s votes in Sacramento, he’d be worse than Loretta. Loretta’s voting record is actually pretty progressive, despite her “Blue Dog” label.
Loretta would not have voted against making insurance companies justify their rate increases to the Insurance Commissioner. Loretta would not have voted against fining pesticide companies for using carcinogens in school yards and playgrounds. I could go on but I’m busy…