In the transportation section of USA TODAY’s newspaper the headline reads “China’s fast trains may offer tips for us.” A word of caution. Before getting too enamored by bringing underfunded high-speed rail to California we must each set aside emotions and engage in a cost-benefit analysis including all key factors.
China’s newest 664 mile high speed rail connects Guangzhou and Wuhan, two major cities. The USA TODAY story confirms “Guangzhou is one of China’s richest cities, an export powerhouse whose thousands of factories manufacture many of the items found in an average US home. Wuhan is a Yantzee River port and central China’s major industrial center.”
We visited Wuhan just prior to the Olympic Games and can speak from personal observation that it is a huge metropolis where the inner city has 7 million residents while the population of San Francisco is around 800,000. I am not able to establish the daily work force of either city at this time which might impact daily commuting alternatives. However, the Chinese bullet train serving these two cities will provide a three to four hour trip for international business travelers rather than unpredictable tourism to San Francisco or Sacramento. I question how many daily riders our system will actually achieve.
Guangzhou’s population is six million as compared to Anaheim’s 350,000 or the city of LA with 3.6 million. The issue, regardless of national or regional population, is establishing realistic ridership numbers. There is no comparison between these China destinations and the major hub cities of the proposed CHSR.
In his story reporter Calum MacLeod quotes Randal O’Toule a senior Fellow at the Libertarian Cato Institute opining that “high speed rail is an obsolete technology that requires huge subsidies in France, Japan and China. Our government seems to view trains as a form of social engineering that they think is better than driving or flying.” The report follows stating “everyone will pay for these new lines through taxes, but only a few people will use them.”
Another interesting comment by Mr. O’Toule is that “less than 8% of all jobs in the US are located in the downtown of our cities” while that’s the destination of our proposed high speed system.
The reported cost of a round tip ticket on the new Chinese train is $220 round trip Vs $56 via China Southern airlines serving the same two cities.
Gilbert comments. I may disagree with Mr. O’Toul that high speed transit is obsolete but he is correct that you still need to get from your home to connect with the proposed train as well as making local connections after reaching your terminus. As to finances, documented history has shown that almost every transportation system involving trains is subsidized by the government. Another area where Mr. O’Toule and I might differ is jobs. We do not know what percentage of the proposed CA riders are commuting to work or are they simply tourists on vacation. My sense is that the short runs from Anaheim to LA are daily workers but you do not take daily round trips from San Diego to San Francisco or Sacramento.
When mayor Pringle boasts of the 20 minute trip time to LA he ignores existing trains that currently serve this short stretch. So while a Ford Taurus can get you safely from Anaheim to Union Station do we really need to upgrade to a Lexus?
At a time when Assemblyman Jose Solorio just told a world wide audience from Friday’s Transit Forum, broadcast with a live feed, that we can expect three more years of $20 billion dollar deficits I would throw out of office any elected official supporting this “special interest” project being promoted by our lame duck governor and Anaheim’s lame duck mayor. Both of these men will be out of office while California taxpayers bear the burden of back-filling the project expenditures for decades to come while statewide programs are cut or reduced.
And lastly. We have utilized high-speed transit in London mainland Europe and China. The issue for me is having the residential, industrial or business density to justify it and being able to pay for the infrastructure and operating costs, neither of which we possess in California today.
While we just received $2.25 billion from president Obama, and another $9 billion from Prop 1A’s Bond that can be used for HSR, what private sector firms are willing to invest the remaining $70 billion dollars to complete the 800 mile system?
Show me the “3 P” money which I believe is part of the requirement to proceed.
But Larry, Anaheim’s lame duck Mayor NEEDS high-speed rail to justify his new train station. His legacy ARTIC building is planned to host the California Bullet Train (he coincidentally chairs its Board, but that can’t be a conflict). He’s also planning a monorail to bring the hordes of HSR passengers from ARTIC to Disneyland, but it seems the Mouse won’t pony up a nickel for all this new business.
Millions of Measure M dollars have already been spent for his new edifice, but the private investment his glib, smiling countenance expected inexplicably dried up, so now it’s up to Anaheim, the County and the Transportation Authority to pay to build this white elephant (unless someone with half a brain confronts his Mayorship to stop it). But not to worry, as you mention, the Mayor will be long gone by the time this project bellies up and becomes a bond issue and a line item on a spreadsheet.
Golightly.
That should be the call of every Anaheim resident when Curt’s term is over. In fact it might be changed to simply GO.
What did pastor Rick Warren say in the best seller Purpose Driven Life.
“It’s not about you”
*There goes Dr. Golightly again…..Please…In the words of Hillary Clinton…”It takes a Village!” not New York City!
You don’t need mega millions of people to create an economic, efficient and comfortable way to travel about the country.
The Pringle ARTIC plan is very cool. Guess you guys think finding and taking a shuttle from one of the hotels will create less pollution, less traffic and better use of Government Dollars…mainly…NONE! If you want the traffic off the streets ..try offering a reasonable alternative. How about HOVERCRAFT? We can see you running after that missed connection right now! Not Invented Here…is so stale Golightly.
Try another brand of mouthwash!
Where is the route going to be? Are they going to buy Disneyland? to make room for the high speed train, and relocate it (Disneyland)to the renaissance area of Santa Ana?
Good morning Cook.
I have seen the proposed alignment and will try to respond later. We have a recall vote challenge that has hit the news that takes me to the ROV offices in Santa Ana tomorrow morning. My plate is already overflowing today.
Winships: Do your homework. There’s already an extensive shuttle system in Anaheim which runs between the hotels, train station and Disneyland. Anything else is redundant. Pringle’s train just runs between Rinoville and Self-serving City.
#6, I think you may have to come write for my blog.
I like the ideal of increased train service and the bullet train.
I have taken Amtrak and Metro Link from Santa Ana to Union Station (And most other stops too). I enjoy using this service when ever I can.
The route that UP & Amtrak use for passenger and freight now would not be available for a bullet train. A bullet train would need to use a massive amount of Eminent Domain. (Like taking the entire 5 freeway for the bullet train railroad bed.)
The current trains using this route are capable of doing over 70 mph and do so in a few spots between San Clemente and San Diego. This route between Irvine and Union station there is a speed limit of 35 mph for most of it.
Even the high speed trains of other places and countries, when they get to population centers they slow way down to about 35 mph.
It makes no sense to buy a 200 mph train and built a high cost route for a point A (Union Station) to point B (Anaheim) that would have a speed limit of not more than 35 mph.
Cook.
I’m going to wing it with this reply.
In reading some of the CHSRA data I recall speed at a bend near Fullerton restricting max speed to 70 MPH. Do the math. Anaheim to LA is about 26 miles depending on actual locations. Curt says the trip will take 20 minutes. Is that a non stop train? Let’s see. Traveling at 90MPH will get you to your destination in less than 20 minutes, a far cry from 200MPH.
Note: We rode the maglev train in Shanghai to the airport. That 18 1/2 mile ride took 7 1/2 minutes at an “average speed” of 268 MPH. That’s a considerable difference. With 17 million people living in Shanghai you do avoid traffic with their bullet train.
Oh, I did not think about the train being under ground a couple hundred feet.
Cook. I real prefer not adding all this stuff. However, from the Alternatives analysis Report, page 34, let me quote:
“The modeling of HST passenger service between Anaheim and los Angeles was tested and evaluated to prove the service reliable and not subject to delays that may be incurred by the operations of the existing freight and passenger rail operators. These initial evalautions were then examined in the context of the operational dynamics resident in the Phase 1 Service Plan (developed in December 2008, and included in Appendix F) to determine whether the alternatives could accomodate the refined service patterns in the Phase 1 Service Plan under the proposed timetable for the HST service. The Phase 1 Service Plan was developed based on a much more detailed ridership demand forecast that was produced by Cambridge Systematics, specific to the Phase 1 service scenario, and subsequent to the “high level” of train operation forecasts used for the July 2008 Operations Analysis.. Using the ridership estimates developed to formulate the stopping patterns and equipment requirements, the Phase 1 Service Plan identified the need for up to five trains per hour between Anaheim and Los Angeles.”
Cook. You can easily get overwhelmed reading all of the detailed data and options including at grade tracks, elevated arterial, deep bore tunneling or cut and cover tunnels.
#6 Jakes – whew dude….when is the last time you took the Shuttle System from Downtown Disney again? We would love to know where the current schedule might be found for all of the connections to John Wayne and LAX.
If you can find that info…be sure to post it right up – especially for those out of town guests you will be entertaining in the middle of summer.
I see that the preferred route follows the route Amtrak/UP route and crosses over them often. To save the current train stations the cities have built in the last decade the HST is pushed off to the other side(s), so all the private building around the track of the last decade will have to go. Even here in Santa Ana if the HST goes to Irvine as one alt option, the 25 story housing tower in the train district the city want to zone it, would have to be torn down.
I see the preferred route will require a complete rebuilding of the Amtrak/UP routes too. The HST route crosses over, back and forth throughout the route. Also the route goes though a great deal of new transit orientated building that has taken place around the new train stations.
Cook. There are options for each leg of the proposed route. After I wrap up our income taxes I will spend more time digging into the many pages of related preliminary findings.
An item did catch my eye relating to high speed trains from Anaheim to LA. In one document they say to meet the projected ridership it will require five trains per hour. I do not see anything indicating the number of cars to make up these HST trains nor how many of them will simply do an about face bringing passengers back to ARTIC vs continuing north to the bay area cities of SAC and SF. Is this an exotic “special interest” ride for Curt or will they ever justify the cost, which to date has yet to be pledged, for providing 800 miles of track that we were told with Prop 1A not just 25 to 30 miles that Curt is promoting. CHSRA. “Show me the money” before you begin.