Where are the jobs? — Not in California!!!!

No job for Santa

Traditional signs that a recession is coming to an end include a rising rate of productivity as the economy begins to pick up but employers remain reluctant to hire more workers to expand production. The US economy is now in that recessionary phase, according to most economic pundits, with a significant increase in productivity.

Forbes magazine, in its November 16 edition, notes that the jobs market in this recession has been the bleakest in a generation. National unemployment has exceeded 10% – the worst in 26 years – from a low of 4.5% in May of 2007. According to the Forbes article titled “Early Risers” unemployment lagged the larger economy by 5 months in the recession of 1982, by a year in the recession of 1991, and 2 ½ years following the 2001 slump. The trend is that employment recovery is taking longer and longer each recession.

In identifying where jobs are and will likely be in the next year, the article finds that California will continue to lose jobs through 2010. However, Texas will grow by 43,000 jobs and Washington, Oregon, Colorado and Georgia are forecast to see job growth through 2010.

If this article is correct about jobs growth through 2010, the best place to find a job is some place other than California. This does not bode well for government tax revenues at the local and State level, nor for the housing market here. At least that is my take.

Within the last few days trial balloons have been floated from the Governor’s office about how bad the next State budget will be due to inadequate revenues, and the specter of continuing State employee furloughs, program cuts and eliminations are being laid out for the public to see. If an economic recovery is under way, it seems it will be a while before California sees it and the level of service provided by our State government is in for further decline.

About Over But Not Out

A retired Orange County employee, and moderate Republican. The editor seriously does not know OBNO's identity as did not the former editor, but his point of view is obviously interesting and valued.