Why does the DPOC think that Beth Krom can beat John Campbell?

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Politics is all about hope – and fear.  But all too often the truth lies in math.  Take for example the current DPOC darling, Irvine Councilwoman Beth Krom.  Some folks think she actually has a chance of defeating well-heeled former car dealer Rep. John Campbell.  But the numbers don’t bear this out.

Last year, perennial Democratic candidate Steve Young tried mightily to take out Campbell.  In the end, Young got just over 40% of the vote – with Barack Obama atop the Democratic ticket, according to Smart Voter.  Campbell came in at over 55% of the vote.  Campbell got 171,431 votes to Young’s 125,351 votes.  That is to say that Young lost by over 45,000 votes!

Sure, Krom has had some success at the local level.  But this is the big leagues now.  And the registration numbers don’t favor Krom – not by a long shot.  There are 195,299 Republicans in the 48th Congressional District.  There are only 128,341 Democrats in that district.  Young got almost all their votes and still lost. 

There are also over 95,000 Decline to State voters in the 48th.  They are, as such, an important swing vote.  And I have a feeling many of them are pissed about our rising taxes and increasing national socialism.  Krom is going to get very few votes from this bunch.

So can Krom get Republicans or independents to vote for her?  Despite the stink rising out of the bogus Irvine Great Park?  Despite Obama’s continued destruction of our national economy?  I don’t know about that.

I am no fan of Campbell.  But I just don’t see how Krom will prevail.  She will win the Democratic nomination – and then she will lose big to Campbell.

The sad thing is that the silly DPOC could easily take the 68th Assembly District, with a lot less effort.  But instead they will blow their wad on Krom and end up crying in their beer.  Would you expect any less from a dysfunctional party that can’t get anyone elected?  A party that failed to pick up City Council seats in blue collar Garden Grove and La Habra last year?

I feel bad for all the folks that are ponying up big contributions for Krom.  Save your money folks.  She has already lost.  It is just a matter of time…

UPDATE: Campbell has signed on as a sponsor to the “Birther” bill, which would mandate that presidential candidates show proof of citizenship.  Obviously Campbell is one of those dumb Republicans who thinks that President Obama was born in Africa.  Obama won the 48th last year.  Perhaps Campbell should back off Obama and concentrate on taking out Krom?

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"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.