Tran vs. Correa in 2010 – and Nguyen vs. Sanchez too?

Never mind 2009, the big year in O.C. politics will be 2010.  That is when I suspect that Assemblyman Van Tran will finally go up against a real candidate.  He will be termed out – and the only available opportunity will be to take on popular State Senator Lou Correa.  That will be quite a war, but Correa should beat him handily.  Tran does not have the pull he used to.

One of the reasons Tran lost his groove is the advent of Supervisor Janet Nguyen, who has quickly become the New Van Tran.  Nguyen will have a free shot at Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez.  How will the Jannie turncoats in the DPOC deal with that?

I expect that Sanchez will beat Nguyen, but I would not put it past Nguyen to recruit Latinos to run in the primary against Sanchez, as Democrats, and in the general as third party candidates, to dilute the Latino vote.

As for Tran, he will be in deep trouble if Nguyen’s Chief of Staff, Andrew Do, files for the 68th Assembly District.  None of Tran’s allies on the Westminster City Council have resumes like Do’s, who is a former O.C. Deputy District Attorney.  Do will trash Tran’s allies and likely move on to Sacramento.

But who knows?  We saw that Nguyen and Do can be just as unethical as Van Tran, during the recent restaurant ratings scandal.  And their support for the expensive remodeling of the Supervisors’ lobby, while laying off County workers, was equally uncool.

It would not surprise me at all to see Nguyen join forces with Tran in order to get the Vietnamese vote out in 2010, to benefit them both in their respective campaigns.  Tran will be agonized to see Nguyen run for the congressional seat he wants, but it makes more sense for her to take on Sanchez as the First Supervisorial District overlaps more of the 47th Congressional District than the 68th Assembly District does.  Nguyen also nullifies Sanchez on gender.

Correa, by the way, is pushing hard for former State Senator John Burton to become the new Chair of the California Democratic Party.  I am told that Burton will be helping Correa in his battle against Tran.  The Democrats simply must retain the 34th Senate District, even if some of them have issues with the moderate maverick Correa.

Between now and the 2010 primary, all of these folks will be doing one thing – raising as much money as they can.

Expect Nguyen to back lame Santa Ana Councilman Carlos Bustamante in his quest to take over the O.C. Planning Department.  I hear that the Irvine Company wants Busty in that position so they can work with a Planning Director who will do whatever they tell him to.  That certainly sounds like Busty.  If true, I would expect the Irvine Company big wigs to toss a lot of cash at Nguyen…in return for her support for Busty.

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"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.