Would you spend $100 million to go up 1% in the polls?

Just as the title points out ladies and gentlemen, the 2008 race apparently looks to be a dog fight ’til Election Day.

As I was watching CNN, Wolf Blitzer reported upon a new post-Obama Bronco speech and post-Palin poll which shows en Barack Obama (D-IL) attracting 49% of the vote while Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) attracts 48% of the vote.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/

This polls finds something very interesting that I’m not sure a lot of people are talking about. Partisans on both sides are diluting both his 80,000 crowd speech and McCain’s selection of Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).

What this poll shows is that Sen. Obama’s speech in Denver did EXACTLY what it needed to do for him as a candidate. Take it for what it’s worth, there were some independents who connected to his message and there were some independents who didn’t. Sen. McCain’s announcement of Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate did EXACTLY what it needed to do for his campaign as well. Some independents connected very well to it, obviously conservative Republicans responded VERY well to it while there were some independents who questioned it.

However, I’m in the mindset that Sen. McCain’s pick for VP did more for his campaign than Sen. Obama’s speech in Denver did for his, and here’s why: Obama — in a very difficult, or what should be a difficult year for Republicans, needed to make the case to the American people about his candidacy. If he was overly successful at that, the Senator from Illinois should be as much as 10-12points ahead of the Senator from Arizona… ESPECIALLY in a political climate where President Bush is only viewed favorably by 30% of Americans.

This poll, and granted there will be other polls soon that show the race similarly close, but this poll showing McCain 1 point behind Obama clearly means that independent voters are waking up to these candidates. Clearly, Obama is attracting one of his highest percentage of support since the campaign really got under way, but McCain has rallied his base with his pick and — should Gov. Palin prove to be a smart pick to McCain in the minds and eyes of voters who have doubted his selection, McCain could find a larger bounce in the polls after the RNC. This assumption only prevails should all five Gulf Coast GOP governors (Perry, Jindal, Barbour, Reily, and Crist) prove to have a successful handling of Hurricane Gustav.

But, like this election has already proven, ANYTHING… is possible. I could be entirely wrong or dead-on. With 65 days and counting, time will of course soon tell.

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