Following is “part of” the latest Internet survey of John Zogby, CEO Zogby International “the hottest pollster in the USA today.” Here is your chance to see the Aug. questions and provide your answers.
1. The issue of overseas trade, both imports and exports, has been at the forefront of the national debate. Can you tell me for which industries you support trade (choose all that apply)
Agriculture
Technology and electronics devices
Automobile
Professional services
Health care
Not sure
2. Overseas trade and global manufacturing have drastically reduced the costs of consumer electronics sold in the United States. Do you think that this is very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad for the United States?
3. The United States has created about 25 million jobs in the last 15 years. Do you believe America would have added more or less jobs if we had been more restrictive in our overseas trade?
America would have created more than 25 million jobs
America would have created less than 25 million jobs
The number of jobs would have been about the same
Not sure/Don’t know
4. Do you agree or disagree you benefit personally from overseas trade, or not?
5. Please tell us which statement is closest to your own opinion about the types of industry in America.
Statement A: America should stick with more traditional jobs in manufacturing and other long-standing industries.
Statement B: America should focus on high-tech and jobs in the service industry.
6. Some say there is an anti-trade sentiment in America. What, if anything, do you think could be behind such sentiment?
Negative reporting from protectionists in the media
Concern about the long-term future of jobs
Legitimate complaints that America is being taken advantage of
News stories that focus on the outsourcing phenomenon
I don’t think there is an anti-trade sentiment in America
Not sure
7. Some say there is an anti-trade sentiment in America. What, if anything, do you think could be behind such sentiment? Same list as #6 above.
8. Please tell us which statement most closely matches your own opinion about U.S. corporations with overseas operations.
Statement A:They are harming American workers by shifting or creating jobs overseas. They should add those jobs in the United States even if it costs more.
Statement B: They are practicing smart business by placing workers in the most cost efficient locations. In doing so, they actually help the United States by remaining competitive.
9. Can the United States remain the leader in technology and innovation if it restricts overseas trade?
10. On a scale of 1 to 5, with one being not at all and 5 being very much, how important to you personally are the following results of overseas trade?
Low-cost clothing
Affordable electronics devices
Selection of fruits and vegetables throughout the year
Quality automobiles
11. Overseas trade has no doubt changed our economy. It has reduced the costs of goods such as food, electronics and clothing. At the same time it has forced Americans to become more competitive with workers overseas. On the whole, has this been a good or bad thing?
12. Would America be the economic leader it is today without overseas trade?
13. If the election for President of the United States were held today and the candidates are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote?
14. If the election for President of the United States were held today and the candidates are Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?
15. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage gas prices and energy issues?
16. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage the economy and jobs?
17. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage the War in Iraq?
18. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage the War on Terror?
19. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage health care?
20. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe can best manage foreign policy issues?
21. Between Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr, and independent Ralph Nader, which candidate for President in 2008 do you believe overall would be a better leader for America?
22. Overall, how would you rate the job performance of the U.S. Congress?
23. Overall, how would you rate the job performance of your U.S. Congressional Representative?
24. In your U.S. Congressional District, which party’s candidate do you plan to vote for in the race for that Congressional seat in November?
25. Which political party currently controls the U.S. House of Representatives?
26. Which political party currently controls the U.S. Senate?
27. Which political party do you believe is most to blame for high fuel prices?
28. Do you think Libertarian Bob Barr should be included in the presidential debates?
29. Do you think independent Ralph Nader should be included in the presidential debates?
30. Should Orange Juivce fonder Art Pedroza be elected to the Santa Ana city council? ..Who added this one?
1.Not Sure… What does “support trade” mean? Protectionism? Then my answer is “none”
2. Somewhat good (but it is a bad indicator, when we cannot manufacture at home. In the long run, the money will flow towards the productive, and Americans are becoming increasingly less productive.)
3. Less jobs. I want to say first of all that the United States hasn’t “created” any jobs. The concept is fallacy. Restrictive trade is a dampener on all trade however, and less trade means less people trading.
4. Of course I benefit from overseas trade or I wouldn’t be buying things made overseas. duh…
5. Neither. The government needs to get out of trade “management”. The only effect they have is to funnel trade to one group or another based on politics, not production, and that is a terrible injustice no matter who it is.
6. Negative reporting from “protectionists” in the media. I wouldnt call them protectionists… I think that like everyone, they are trying to promote their own prosperity over others. None-the-less, the media seems very narrow in voice, and peoples perceptions follow suit.
7. same question as 6 and the same answer… Did I miss something?
8. Neither. They are doing what they need to promote themselves. What are you going to do make it illegal to have operations outside the US? If you don’t want corporations to take their operations outside the US, then we need to stop using government force to make it difficult for them to make work here.
9. You cannot maintain leadership in any endeavor by restricting things… You might stay on the football team longer if you arrange to have your rival’s legs broken. But the only way to become a better player is to work hard and train.
10.
Low-cost clothing: 1
Affordable electronics devices: 1
Selection of fruits and vegetables throughout the year: 1
Quality automobiles: 1
11. Neither. Economies are constantly moving fluid things. Trying to pin point one thing is like taking a scoop of water out of a lake and claiming you created a hole.
12. No. Economic leader without trade… oxymoron? no… ox and a moron.
13. Niether. It is time for change.
14. Bob Barr. It is time for change.
15. Bob Barr. He would finally remove political favoritism from the energy market, spawning new energy sources, and efficiency methods long suppressed by regulations designed to protect big money contributers.
16 Bob Barr: The American people are being taken for a ride. The Republicans and Democrats have been selling legislation to the highest bidder costing us dearly in all aspects of our economy.
17. Bob Barr: Mission Accomplished… Time to come home. NOW.
18. Bob Barr: How do you wage war on an emotion? If someone threatens us or hurts us. Whack them HARD so they stop and don’t do it again. The “War on terror” is the same old politicians using 9/11 to solidify their power and destroy our liberties.
19. Bob Barr: Government has been screwing up health care for too long… We need to back up and return to a time when hospitals were plentiful and emergency rooms available everywhere. Once upon a time doctors never refused help to the poor. Now through HMOs and Government, even the gainfully employed are denied care.
20. Bob Barr: America needs a fresh face and a new message of friendship.
21. Bob Barr: He appeals to all Americans.
22. Poor. Bickering as our economy is sold to forien hands by the unfettered printing of money. Most of them couldn’t even spell economics.
23. Poor. Ask me what the last time I heard from him was on issues that effect me… I live in a congressional district that looks like a child’s scribble… Guess who drew it to encompass his friends.
24. Libertarian. Because a vote for a third party is 10 times louder than having a vote washed out for more of the same.
25. They are the same party.
26. They are the same party.
27.Both of them.
28. Absolutely. What is gained by excluding him? Nothing for the American people, and everything for foreign and domestic power interests. What is lost by excluding him? Truth, Justice and the American way.
29. Sure. Don’t like him much, but he has something to say that the American people deserve to be able to hear and consider.
30. Santa Ana Needs Art!
AFH.
Thank you for taking the time to respond to the 29, plus one, Zogby poll. At times I must admit that some of the questions are themselves, questionable.
LOL AFH! Nice work. I especially like your answers to 25 and 26.
SMS
Funny, reading the poll questions made me think that they were going for certain answers. I’ve read that there is a science to the wording and placement of polling and survey questions to get the answers you want and it seems that this poll makes full use of that. I don’t know …
While I appreciate the differing opinion by AFH, it seems to me that the questions that needed asking are “What is the proper role of government in the area of international trade?” and “Do you support an employment structure in this country where business owners and professionals (less than 10% of the country) make 90% more than the service industry workers who live on near minimum wage jobs without health benefits?”
I think our Government’s role is to level the playing field not to benefit one or the other while protecting the long term economic interests of the majority of the population and I think that making 90% of the country live in poverty is a shortsighted course of action we will eventually regret.
Anonymous.
Part of our consideration of any poll acceptance must include checking the track record of the pollster.
More often than not we receive phone calls from out of state callers asking questions about Mission Viejo. I know for a fact that those questions are customized to achieve a predetermined outcome. These are known as “push poles.”
Wikipedia reads: A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as a poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo or knowledge gleaned from opposition research on an opponent. They are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning.”
Back to the post. Who is John Zogby? A valid question I once asked myself when joining his group of poll responders. How did he score in prior elections, etc? Let’s see:
“In 2004, while his actual polling was right on the money, his Election Day prediction failed to materialize. Before polls had even closed in the 2004 presidential election, Zogby predicted a comfortable win for John Kerry (311 electoral votes, versus 213 for Bush, with 14 too close to call), saying that “Bush had this election lost a long time ago,” adding that voters wanted a change and would vote for “any candidate who was not Bush.” While admitting that he was mistaken, Zogby did not admit any possible flaws in his poll methods, insisting that his predictions were all “within the margin of error.” While on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, he said he felt that Kerry would win due to the undecided voters. Despite his personal prediction, Zogby’s final poll showed Bush with a one point lead over Kerry, making him one of the ‘winners’ among pollsters according to the New York Post and Boston Globe.[2] Zogby later released a “mea culpa” in which he stated “I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict.” [3]
In 2006, Zogby phone polling correctly called all 10 competitive United States Senate races and nailed the exact margin in the three closest races. His interactive online polling correctly called the winner of 17 of 18 races, but was far off in the margin of victory of some races. [4]
Prior to the January, 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, Zogby, like virtually all other pollsters, showed in his polling a large (13 points, in Zogby’s case) lead for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, adding, “Obama is still on a roll and not slowing down. He had another big day.” Clinton went on to win by three percentage points. Zogby’s polling results in the Iowa Caucuses, and the South Carolina, and Florida primaries, however, were far closer, and he was one of only a few pollsters to correctly call Obama’s Iowa win. However, his final poll in California showed Obama winning by 13%, but the actual results showed Hillary winning by 10%, a 23-point difference far beyond the margin of error.
Zogby has penned a comprehensive review of the process of polling the volatile 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Obama and Clinton. [5]
Zogby has been known as an industry innovator, making it standard practice to weight his political polls using party indentification, which was not a common practice when he began to do so. Today, it is widely accepted as a best practice for the industry. Zogby himself credits this as one key reason his political polling has been so accurate over the years.
Another key reason for the Zogby success stems from his decision to maintain an in-house call center using live operators in Upstate New York. But, with the dramatic changes in the telephone industry in recent years, Zogby in 1998 began developing an interactive online polling methodology using a massive database of respondents that closely represents the national population at large.[6] This methodology is particularly reliable, especially as many more Americans make logging onto the Internet and checking email accounts a regular habit.
Zogby has also had success with elections in countries outside the United States. He correctly called the 2001 Israeli election for Ariel Sharon, the 2000 Mexican election for Vicente Fox and again in Mexico with the victory of Felipe Calderón in 2006. Also, Zogby has made a sideline of polling Arab attitudes toward the United States, particularly in regard to Lebanon.”
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As to the role of government we could reflect back on presidential candidate Ross Perot who opposed NAFTA as a protectionist.In the 1992 election he received 20 million votes representing 18.8 percent of the total votes cast costing George H.W. Bush that election against Bill Clinton. To put a spin on the data one could argue that 20 million Americans opposed “free trade” at that time. I recall his comment of hearing a “giant sucking sound” as US jobs were transferred to Mexico’s Maquiladoras.
Think about the WTO, NAFTA and CAFTA as to the level playing field we all seek. Also recognize that we live in a global marketplace. Battles over tarrifs and duties in prior years were also a key element of the US trade balancing act.
Having spent my entire career in the commercial, industrial and military electronics industries I have seen many American companies disappear. One heavy industrial example. There was a time when I recall major cities like Pittsburg and Cleveland with huge smokestacks at their steel mills. They’re gone. Take a ride around the country and try to find a steel rolling mill. How about TV and major appliance manufacturers? That’s called progress and globalization.
The cars imported from Korea in the 60’s and 70’s were greatly subsidized by their government. We hear of sweatshops with child labor or the use of prison labor in China which surely makes it difficult for us to compete. Yet at the same time we buy their goods at major outlets because they are cheaper than domestic products.
Several years ago I recall a Congressman telling a reporter that he wanted to purchase a consumer electronics item for his son. In shopping for a domestic brand he also saw the imported equivalent, with more features, at considerably less cost. He admitted that he went with his wallet and not patriotism.