The Sac Bee has just reported that our governor is coming back to voters with his dream sheet of a high speed “bullet” train to run from Sacramento or San Francisco to LA and San Diego. So far I can agree with the concept. However lets’ peel the onion back a little further. The Sac Bee story, “High-speed rail backers hope adding private investors to bond measure will avoid delays” can be found here.
Before posing some questions for Juice drinkers let me state that I have utilized and enjoy high speed transit. We have taken the bullet train from London’s Waterloo Station to Gare Du Nord in Paris a few years ago. That 307 mile ride thru the “Chunnel” made one stop in Dover and takes three hours. the train has a maximum speed of 186 MPH. Max speed in the UK is limited due to the need to upgrade their tracks. Prior to that experience I rode the TGV from Paris to Zurich, Switzerland and most recently we rode the Mag Lev train to the new International Airport Terminal in Shanghai, China reaching 430 KPH. Said another way we covered 20 miles in seven minutes.
If Asia and Europe can invest in this form of transportation than we need to give it full consideration. However, I must question the governor’s plan as reported by the Sac Bee. The governor wants us to approve a $10 million Bond Measure this November. Quentin Kopp, chairman of the high speed rail authority, hopes “to leverage another $9 billion from federal matching funds.” OK. Even if that can be accomplished let’s look at the rest of the projected cost. “The entire project is estimated at $42 billion and would be completed by 2020.” Let’s assume that, unlike my city’s management of CIP’s, this project can be completed at or under budget. Governor Schwarzenegger, “show me the money.” The Bee reports that “Supporters then hope another $10 billion can be raised from private investors.” The key word being hope. And even if the private sector comes forward with $10 billion where do you expect to get the balance of $13 billion which ironically is virtually identical to our current red ink?
Setting aside the cost we also need to question the proposed rail system. Beginning in San Francisco the train will stop at the San Francisco airport, RedwoodCity/Palo Alto, San Jose, Gilroy, Fresno, Bakersfield, Palmdale, Sylmar, Burbank, LA Union Station where it forks into two directions.
Without indicating the rest of the stations east and south of LA the article reports travel time, at 200 MPH, from Sacramento or San Francisco to LA will be 2 1/2 hours. Let’s go back and revisit the 307 mile trip from London to Paris with one stop that takes 3 hours or the TGV train traveling at 186 MPH from Paris to Zurich that makes that 400 mile trip in 6 hours and 10 minutes. And we are to believe that the CA bullet train will make the above referenced 350 mile trip with 10 stops in less time?
The Assembly Transportation Committee is scheduled to hear compromise Bill AB 3034 next month. As it involves funding and a 2/3rds vote for approval I hope that those serving on the committee and, if it passes out, the entire legislature starts asking some of these basic questions before simply saying OK.
Juice readers. Those are my thoughts. what do you think?
Larry, how would this compete with Amtrak? Would the Amtrak operations be sold to this private operator of the high speed rail deal? I am out of the loop on this one.
When I was in England last summer I was speaking to some English gentlemen on the train. I don’t recall how we got off the topic of Beckham and Posh Spice, but they pointed out that the train system was privatized by Margaret Thatcher. It would sure be nice to see Amtrak sold off.
Is this for real? I’d probably use it… but what an awful ‘investment!’
SMS
Good afternoon Sarah.
No, this post is no joke. Everyone can see this story in the Sac Bee. You should never begin any project without having a clear vision and committment for funding including a contingency for project overruns.
Happy Easter to you and all Juice readers. Larry
Andy.
you raise a valid question about the current Amtrack system. I am not sure if the governor’s plan is predicated on using some of their existing rails. However, to fly at 200 MPH requires a rail track that is superior to what is out there today. When riding Eurostar we read that they had to reduce speed in the U.K. because the track could not safely handle the speed. Once we entered France they had a much better roadbed and you did see a blur as we passed through the countryside on our way to Paris.
Larry-
You’re preaching to the choir. Are you familiar Boston’s ‘Big Dig?’ They started planning in the late 70’s, Tip O’Neill got the Reagan Congress to part with (I believe) $2.9 billion. By the time it was finished in 2005, the cost had spiraled to about $16.9 billion!
Then a roof panel caved in and killed a woman. Lawsuits all over the place. Mitt Romney was PISSED!
SMS
We could easily have a high speed train from L.A. to San Francisco if only we Americans demanded something for our tax dollars. This country spends far too much on the military and not enough on infrastructure. California alone sends 15 billion a year to the war in Iraq. If only we had the money we have WASTED in Iraq we could have funded this much needed, mass transit. Suckers, that’s what American taxpayers are!
Larry, I was wondering why the Eurostar was not going that fast in the UK. In France I was surprised that I did not have a real sense of how fast we were going. The only way to tell was that the power lines along side the track were zipping by quickly.
Sarah.
Yes, I had followed the “big big.”
Today was the opening ceremony to celebrate our 20th year of Mission Viejo cityhood. Part of the festivities are to take place at our Norman P Murray Community & Senior Center where we just added a 12,000 square foot addition that was to cost $5.5 million dollars and swelled to $15.2 million so I have personal knowledge of cost overruns.
The cost over runs on projects here in America PALE in comparison to the cost over runs in Iraq. Billions have been lost, stolen and wasted, so much money is being dumped there that we can’t even track it. Why are we always outraged over money wasted in America and NEVER outraged about military waste which accounts for so much of our tax dollars. The Iraq war is going to cost this country at least 3 trillion dollars, for nothing. America has chosen; bombs over books, rifles over roads and humvees over hospitals. How dumb are we?
anon 7:46 PM
While we can debate the war and it’s costs in lives and dollars this post is about something that directly impacts our state called transportation. We can each find numerous examples of federal or local spending that could be part of another post. Perhaps one of us will take on that challenge.
Where do you want us to draw the line? $60,000 dollars for trophy’s?
Health care? Wall Street bailouts?
Military spending directly impacts our state [and every other state] it is not just another budget issue, it is where most of our discretionary tax dollars go. Until Americans wake-up to this fact, we will sink even further behind other industrialized nations in our standard of living. I only bring this up to remind “hawks” like you, that militarism carries a steep price. Imagine if we had spent the 3 trillion we are wasting on destroying Iraq on national healthcare, our businesses, large and small would be much more competitive globally, our emergency rooms wouldn’t be stressed and workers would not be tied down to their healthcare benefits. What if we had spent 3 trillion on mass transit projects, jobs, less oil dependancy and less worker hours spent commuting. There are so many ways we could have spent that money, that would’ve provided long term benefits for all Americans but instead we chose to be aggressive, vindictive a**h***s. The choice and the consequences are our shame and just desserts.
Hey LG,
Your head-in-the-sand response to anon’s #9 post is very disingenuous of you. Why do you floks always deflect from the real issues?
My request to the Gov. would be to work on the LA to Vegas High Speed Rail before any other of these two proposals. It really makes more economic sense. Have you tried driving to or from Vegas on any given weekend, let alone any holiday weekend? It’s pathetic!
Oh, wait, that’s right, the powerful Indian Casino lobby will never let that one be built. Joe taxpayer gets screwed again. Just think of all the wasted energy that gets polluted into the environment just because the powerful few block progress and innovation. Kinda like what is happening in Iraq at the moment…
CQT 96. Happy Easter!
No, I am not dodging the issue of the war in Iraq which has been covered by everyone in the media as well as the candidates. This post is about transportation. Several years ago I had the pleasure of dining with a major proponent of a high speed rail system that would extend from Las Vegas to Anaheim. Over time he recognized that part of that system might be a challenge so he recently informed me that their current thinking is to terminate around Victorville.
My orignial thoughts, which I have posted previously, was to address the families of high rollers from the OPEC countries. While the men sat at the tables they would put their wives and children on a bullet train to enjoy a day in the Anaheim resort area. Give them a few hundred bucks to spend so that they no longer become a distraction when you are gambling.
This would be a privately funded transportation system with the casinos and destinations like Downtown Disney or the Honda Center and Angel Stadium footing their share of the development and operation costs.
That’s our thinking. What do you suggest?
Input from my daughter who, with her family, just drove from LAX to the Walnut Creek area of the East Bay on Friday.
PS: She read the post. Here are some of her comments.
Let me also point out that unlike air or train transit, a family in a car is not required to show up one or two hours in advance and wait for a departure schedule. You can also drive straight through without making upwards of 10 stops which in their case, would have also necessitated their using public transportation called BART or a rental car to cross over from SFO as they head home.
She states: “Amtrak is losing a ton of money and has very low turn out for people on it. I think Californians are just too used to having their own cars and coming and going when they want…not working on a train schedule where they will need to rent a car once they get to the other end of their destination.”
Coincidently, I was sitting in the bar at the Sacramento Hyatt Regency on business and struck up a conversation with an English gentleman. He had just finished two days of meetings as the lead consultant on this project and previously, was responsible for the bullet train that travels out of Madrid, Spain. While even he concedes that raising funds and getting agreement from homeowners as new tracks are laid, this is a worthy investment on several fronts.
First, based on actual results following the first 3 years of the bullet train project in Spain, the project was already a success. In the first year, it had the equivalent effect of taking 350,000 cars off of the road in terms of both traffic and polution (the train is electric). From a business perspective, it was net profitable following its second year…and here is why:
Imagine all of you – a Monday morning commute from Irvine to Los Angeles that takes 20 minutes while you eat breakfast and have high speed internet access! Those that travel for business, imagine your routine trip from LAX to SFO or SAC taking roughly the same net time (accounting for parking, early arrival, security, baggage…not to mention delays) for less than half of the money…while you are able to make cell phone calls and internet access!
I’m not saying (nor did he) that this is the end-all, be-all. However, population continues to grow, traffic continues to get worse and we are not modernizing anything these days! We have essentially the same system as 100 years ago…just bigger and more crowded.
It’s time that CA (and the nation) INVESTS in something that moves us ahead further than just one day. If we continue to live, manage and make decisions in the “here and now”, tomorrow will not look so bright and we will continue to slip behind other industrialized nations!
Anon 1:05 pm
In doing some additional research on the “bullet train” I found one article that dates back to Sept 2004 which mentioned a $9.95 Billion Dollar Bond Measure for the November 2004 General Election. The article reported a projected cost of $25 billion stating that it would take 15 years to build the system. Although it mentioned a concern of a budget deficit that year it made no mention of the additional funds required to cover the projected costs.
Richard Silver, listed as the Exec Dir Rail Passenger Assoc of CA., made one statement that I agree with. “The United States has a 19th Century Railroad System in the 21st Century.”
In June of 2000 the projected cost escalated to $37 billion which makes me question the valididity of the most recent estimate.