The closing text of this post is from “CBS News Political Consultant Samuel Best who analyzed the Super Tuesday performance of Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.”
Yes, as the talking heads have been saying for months Hillary has more baggage than Obama and her unfavorable ratings are very high. Having Hillary Clinton on the November Ballot will surely get Republicans into the polling booths.
We must take a closer look at what the self proclaimed “agent of change” IL Senator Barack Obama has accomplished in these initial primaries. And I will not use color in making my case. He has motivated the voters born between 1980 to 1995, also known as Generation Y, to register and be part of the political process. (See the CBS data which follows below.)
If Hillary’s machine crown’s her at the DNC Convention my guess is that it will turn off many of the Generation Y voters who will feel cheated and stay home on Nov 4th. Being bombarded by liberal professors in our schools of higher education my guess is that until they have some life experiences many of this group will start out in the Democratic camp. These are the voters who are flocking to Obama over Hillary in great numbers.
What is our side doing? Well, Ron Paul has energized the same age group but, without Ron having any possibility of a major upset, may come to the same conclusion. Our job is to bring them into our tent and make sure that they work in the campaign. Winning the party nomination and getting the “grass roots” out in the streets are two different tasks requiring a great deal of skill and encouragement. Many voters are very cynical and rightly so. Candidates tell us what we want to hear and over time disappoint us. If he prevails, Senator John McCain will have a huge uphill challenge.
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CBS
Obama Energizes Young Voters
Obama decisively won voters under 30 years of age. Nationwide, Obama won 56 percent of young voters, while Clinton was supported by 42 percent. Young men supported Obama by a margin of 64 -33 percent over Clinton, while young women supported Obama by 53-45 percent. The margins were similar among young people who attended college and those who did not.
Young people proved to be particularly crucial to Obama’s victory in Connecticut. Obama won voters under 30 years of age by 19 points, receiving the support of 58 percent of this age group, compared to 39 percent who supported Clinton.
The Elderly Support Clinton
Clinton once again performed well among elderly voters, who comprised 28 percent of the Super Tuesday primary electorate. Clinton was supported by 56 percent of voters 60 years of age and older, whereas Obama was supported by 35 percent. Support was similar by gender, with Clinton leading Obama among elderly women voters 59 percent to 34 percent, and among elderly men 53 percent to 38 percent.
Elderly voters powered Clinton’s victories in several key states. In Oklahoma, where Clinton won by more than 20 points, elderly voters comprised 42 percent of the electorate. Clinton won this group by nearly a three-to-one margin, securing 64 percent of their votes compared to 23 percent for Obama.
Those are my thoughts. I would appreciate your comments on this assessment.
Maybe the Y generation should be called the virtual reality generation.
Healthcare is the obvious issue with the elderly. Clinton will work to make it affordable to all. It is not as strong an issue with younger generations. Obama wants to make it mandatory for just children. That doesn’t make healthcare more affordable to children or the rest of the population.
Both candidates are running on similar formats. It is their experience and style that differ. Obama’s speeches are filled with “shoulds” and “needs” but no “hows”. Yet his followers are latching on. Clinton is actually speaks of how she will get all those “shoulds” and “needs” done.
Bush sold America on hope and promised them a dream too. He obviously had selfish motives and those who believed in him are regretting it now.
anon 3:01 p.m.
As this post was not about President Bush’s agenda, which was surely turned on it’s heels due to 9-11, I’ll leave that comment out of the response to your input.
Elections are based on numbers or specifically voter turnout. My premise is that more voters would go to the polls if Obama, rather than Hillary, is the Democratic standard bearer. If he is not, and for many this is their first participation, they may feel left out and stay home.
Compare voter turnout in this year’s primaries Vs 2004. I have not done that math as yet.
Please keep in mind the sneaky Republican politics of Karl Rove. Do you not think that 1. many of the votes for Obama were indies or cross-over Republicans who will return to the GOP fold come election day 2. Obama will therefore not pull the numbers he has been pulling 3. This is being done because Hillary is the stronger of the two candidates. 4. Besides, I will not sit at home if my candidate does not win and allow a Republican to head up the country for another 4 years. If you stay home because you’re not energized to vote, geez, get a battery.
Where Hillary has the advantage is
only in the “Gender Card”. Many
women will probably vote for Hillary only because…..she fits
the “Professional Woman” Category!
However, this is definitely a two
edged sword. Many women despise
female politicians and will not
vote for them under any conditions.
Now, having said that…there are
lots of electeds from both parties
of the female persuasion. The
bigger question is: Will Southern
Conservatives rather vote for Obama or McCain? Tough choice for
those people..and may in fact tell
the tale of the State of our Republic. They could sit it out!
McCain – Hillary…neither..
McCain – Obama…..Obama every time…..! But that would only
be in more Progressive/Conservative
states….like California?
Face it….you can paint a PIG
Blue…..but its still a PIG!
You can paint a PIG Red…..but
can McCain convince anyone that
he is conservative on anything?
If you are voting for a person because they are promising you everything you could ever hope for, then you are most likely voting for a dream. I think most learned from the past 8 years that they shouldn’t count on dreams coming true.
Many may say they are voting for Obama, but I wonder how deep that goes.
This country is very sexist and that will be the biggest hurdle for Clinton to overcome. Most see her very suitable as a president who can strengthen our economy and work across party lines. And that will be her strength on election day.
winship,
The women who “despise women politicians” probably won’t vote anyway because their husbands won’t let them. So, who cares?! Any other women that would fit your category most likely hate themselves and should seek help.
Strong women know that this election is important. And to make it petty is belittling the women in your life.
anon 6:25 p.m.
“who can strengthen our economy and work across party lines?” Your words not mine. Can you provide a single illustration to prove your point? In fact what piece of legislation has she championed that was signed into law, especially that the Dem’s control both houses of Congress?
According to her stump speeches she has 30 plus years of experience. That surely should result in something for you to use.
I await your response!!!!!!!!!!!
Something to add to mix regarding voter turnout as it pertains to the Golden State. This article appears in today’s OC Register.
Youth vote bailed on Obama
The youngsters so prominent at rallies somehow didn’t show up Super Tuesday
By JOHN UNDERWOOD
Writer and journalist from Los Alamitos
As Obamamania sweeps through primaries in the Midwest and the East on its way to the critical working-class states of Ohio and Texas, Barack and his camp may want to take one more look in their rear-view mirror at what happened, or didn’t happen, in California on Super Tuesday.
There are two ways they could see it – Obama’s candidacy did survive, which was more than any other come-from-behind candidate has done in a long time. But survive was all it did.
So where were the uplifted masses of young, so-called millennium voters who were supposed to “rock the vote” his way? They were there at the rallies, waving their placards. They were all over TV, singing along with U2. They just never made it to the polling booths in anything near the numbers expected.
I wanted to find out why.
Since my last name doesn’t end in Zogby or CNN, I dispatched the only boots on the ground I had, my own, to poll the Youth Vote. Two days after the primary I visited our local community colleges – Cypress, Golden West, Orange Coast and Fullerton. Here I would find the epicenter of voters ages 18-30, who are one-quarter of registered voters in Orange County.
I figured they certainly would be energized by a candidate with rock-star attitude, galvanized by the war and the environment and unified by a ballot measure that was certain to put money in their pockets, Proposition 92, which, among other things, sought to lower community college tuition.
“So, what’s a proposition again?” asked Jeanne, a 20-year-old cosmetology student at OCC, “I don’t think we learned that in school.”
Sean Gillian, a mortuary major at Cypress College, like most of the 70 or so students I polled, told me he was registered, but … “I just haven’t gotten around to voting in an election yet. I’ve been meaning to, though.” Sean is 27.
Some students I met not only registered but actually did vote. Jessica Wright, 22, a transfer student from Nebraska, laid it out for me as clearly as anyone: “I vote, but most of my friends aren’t all that interested. There’s too much going on here to stop and vote. Too many distractions, socially. Back home, voting is a social event. Not here.”
What I did not expect to encounter was a far greater number of students who had voted in the past but now were, shall we say, jaded by the experience. So many of these twentysomethings seemed cynical about the whole process.
Deaundra Givens is a music major at Cypress College with the ultimate cynic’s approach to voting: “I voted for the guy I know for certain won’t win. That way I don’t feel guilty about putting someone in there who goes and fouls the whole thing up.”
Wasn’t it from the ranks of these young would-be voters that a grass-roots surge was supposed to emerge to hand Obama victory in California, as they had done for him in South Carolina? From all of Orange County’s 2000 precincts Obama took less than a handful, and they were from Newport and Irvine – not exactly repositories of the young and the restless.
The pattern was repeated up and down the state. The “yes we can” rally cries of mostly young enthusiastic organizers fell particularly flat in the Central Valley, where Hillary Clinton drew voters of all ages, two to Obama’s one. Many pundits agreed it was middle-age working-class moms that put Hillary over the top in California.
Even the pollsters at Zogby International were forced to eat campaign crow last week and admit they had “overestimated the importance of the younger voter in California, particularly among Hispanics and blacks.”
And, Oh, yes, Prop. 92, which would have locked in funding for community colleges, was voted down 2-1, probably by all those middle-age working moms, and, I guess you could say, by the absence of all those younger voters who, for one reason or another, didn’t show up. So much for “rocking the vote.”
So, the lesson from California for the Obama campaign as it heads into more big primaries may be: One overworked, middle-age voting mom is worth two “fired up and ready to go” youngsters. Instead of whipping up the troops with piped-in rock anthems from Coldplay and Foo Fighters, Obama’s rally wranglers may want to consider cueing up some Neil Diamond, or maybe Frank Sinatra
The main reason is that it is too complicated for Americans to retain information so they tend to vote for the guy who keeps repeating the same mantra. Americans don’t want to know all the “complicated” strategies — just tell them what they want to hear — be like them. I think Huckabee is hanging on for that reason. And, for sure, Obama is keeping it simple. Clinton will have to come up with a strategy that saves the world — hmm.
anon 10:56 a.m.
Thank you for your response.
In the future you might make it easier by simply posting a link to the Register story. What we are looking for is your own personal thoughts on our posts.
Thanks again. Larry
Folks.
After tonight’s clean sweep by Barak Obama we are surely turning the corner. If this race is ultimately decided by the super delegates, or the DNC keeps democratic voters in FL and MICH left out in the cold, you will not be able to blame the Republican Party or the US Supreme Court, for stealing the crown jewel.
“Well, Ron Paul has energized the same age group but, without Ron having any possibility of a major upset, may come to the same conclusion. Our job is to bring them into our tent and make sure that they work in the campaign.”
HA! Get young Ron Paul voters to support and work for some warmonger like McCain (or Romney?) Maybe you hadn’t noticed Ron Paul had an actual MESSAGE that appealed to these voters?
This presidential race is one for the anthropology books.
Women are still being manipulated by men no matter how much better their ideas. If you are a reality show fan and have watched some of the episodes of Survivor and Apprentice, you can see how even strong and educated women give up their power to men. In many cases, the women have the winning strategies and give in to the men’s strategies leading to a team loss. It happens over and over again right in front of our eyes. Very few women are strong enough to weather it out to the end.
Let me add:
If the opposition faces a black man, they won’t dare bring any racial overtones into the campaign tactics.
If the opposition faces a woman, you better believe sexist overtones will be all over the place.
We can see how it has been happening in the debates.
Let me add:
If the opposition faces a black man, they won’t dare bring any racial overtones into the campaign tactics.
If the opposition faces a woman, you better believe sexist overtones will be all over the place.
We can see how it has been happening in the debates.
Mary this is a “reality” show. It’s not West Wing. Someone will be standing when all is over.
Are you suggesting that Hillary was/is smarter than Bill? Perhaps you can give our other readers an illustration.
Bill? What? Huh!?
No Larry. Hillary Clinton is one of many strong women who stand their ground. Unfortunately, there are far many more women who haven’t evolved.
anon 12:40 p.m.
Some food for thought. If you look back at history Lincoln freed the slaves long before women were given the right to vote. The XVth voting Amendment preceeded the XIX Amendment by exactly 50 years.
Powerful women are cracking the “glass ceiling.” In fact one female executive in CA may run for governor. Have you heard of E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman? Watch her!