This surely has been an unusual Presidential Primary Election. Not only is there no clear cut front-runner in either party, (as of today), and having some states being penalized by the Parties with loss of delegates adds to the mystery of who will end up with the most delegates.
I’ll let my colleagues from the other side of the aisle share the Democratic candidate data and focus on our team which has been reduced by one as Congressman Duncan Hunter dropped out today. My knee jerk is that Sen Fred Thompson will drop out on or before Super Tuesday as he is not getting the traction needed to move on.
The Republican standard bearer must have 1,191 delegates to win the primary. We are glued to the tube as votes come in cycle by cycle but what does that translate into. Is it “winner take all” or is it proportional based on each state’s vote totals?
Thru Super Tuesday, (February 5th), 29 of 50 states will have held their Republican caucus’s or Primary elections where there are a total of 1,313 delegates up for grabs.
While I anticipate a pair of finalists, neither will have exceeded the total needed to be selected as our standard bearer.
The following states in play for this year are winner take all. In my view, the larger states play a key role in rolling up the numbers and should get more of the candidates attention. That is one reason that Rudy has placed so much emphasis on Florida where absentee voting has been underway. At the end of the day his campaign strategy will surely be questioned.
New York has 101 delegates for the winner in a winner take all primary. That’s a huge number relative to 1,191.
Other winner take all states are MO. with 58, Florida with 57, Ariz. with 53, NJ with 52.
Utah has 36, CT with 30, Mont. with 25 to Del with 18.
Unless I am mistaken the following states delegation representatives are proportional with CA having the most delegates at 173.
GA has 72, IL 70, TN with 55, ALA with 48, COLO 46, MASS 43, MISS and OKLA with 41 each.
IOWA with 40, ARK and NEV. with 34 each, MICH. and W. VA with 30 each. Alaska has 29, ND 26, SC 24, ME. 21, Wyoming 14 and NH 12.
Please don’t ask me to explain the Super Delegates. This is enough to chew on for tonight.
Always bet with the house…they
say. We say…not even Duncan
Hunter should have dropped out
before February 5th. Put all your
chips on double zero and wait and
see. Neither party will know much
until then.
Will Rudy’s double down on double
zero work? Who knows? It is all
going to be fun!