Will Jim Gilchrist run against Loretta Sanchez next year?

I received a call a few days ago from an old Republican friend of mine. He had a bombshell he wanted to share with me. Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist was thinking of running for the 47th Congressional District, which is currently held by Democratic U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez. My friend asked me to not blog this…but today I saw that Matt “Jubal” Cunningham had in fact blogged about it, over at Red County.

So here is my take on a Gilchrist candidacy. I think he could get up to 40% of the vote in the general election, in November. The district has a Democratic advantage, with Democrats coming in at 42.5% as compared to Republican voters at 36%. Those numbers do not add up to 100% There are a lot of independent voters in this district as well.

It is a fact that there are still quite a few Caucasian voters in the 47th – and many of them are anti-Mexican. Regardless of their partisan leanings, they will be attracted to Gilchrist. That won’t help him in June, as independents cannot vote in GOP primaries in California, but it will help him in the general election.

But a Gilchrist campaign will spell doom for local Republicans. Latinos will turn their backs on them in droves. And, as Cunningham pointed out, it would not make the Trannies happy, as they want their guy, Assemblyman Van Tran, to ascend to the 47th, when Sanchez finally moves on to bigger things.

But if the Trannies oppose Gilchrist, or fail to support him, they will lose a ton of support in their area. What a quandary for them!

The Republicans have not had a candidate as polarizing as Gilchrist, for the 47th, since the days of “B-1” Bob Dornan. Gilchrist is no Dornan, but he would likely rile up the anti-Mexican crowd in Southern California. He is not to be underestimated. This man knows how to get lots of earned media exposure.

While the O.C. Republicans will be split, their counterparts in the Democratic Party of Orange County won’t. They will come out in full force for Congresswoman Sanchez. Guaranteed.

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"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.