The report reads in part: “Rudy Giuliani still leads the GOP field in this state, with 25% support, unchanged from October. However, Huckabee, who was receiving just 4% of Republican voter preferences in California in October, is now in second place, receiving 17% support–just ahead of Mitt Romnney (15%) and John McCain (12%)”
“Fred Thompson’s support has declined sharply, from 12% in October to 6% now.
Huckabee’s big gain is attributable to his getting strong support from California Republicans who are born-again Christians”
Note: “This poll was taken Dec 10-17.”
Table 1 shows how quickly people are open minded as to whom they support. What we do not know is whether or not the prior polls were of the same voters which could impact the shifting sand of this strange election primary season.
i.e. In March of this year Rudy was at 37% dropping to 35% in August, 25% in Oct and holding at 25% in Dec.
Mike Huckabee went from 3% voter preference in March, dropped to 1% in August, increasing to 4% in Oct and taking off like a rocket in December reaching 17%.
Let’s use the same calendar for Mitt where his numbers jumped from 7% to 17% dropping down to 13% closing out at 15% in December.
Let me not overlook Senator John McCain who just received CT Senator Joe Lieberman’s endorsement which obviously is not reflected in these numbers. John went from 24% in March when he was in second place than nose dived to 9% followed by a minor bump to 12% which he continues to hold.
Fred Thompson started at 8% increasing to 13% in August than dropping to 12% in Oct down to 6% in December. The rest of the Republican field has never broken out above single digits and therefore are not included in this post.
The undecided voters have ranged from 15 % to 22%.
OK fellow political junkies. Of the GOP field, whom do you believe will prevail in CA and why?
I am going to say that Ron Paul is going to surprise. I think a lot of people such as my wife are not being factored in because she at the present is registered Libertarian but will soon be changing. But he will have the momentum. He schooled Neil Cavuto yesterday, he is going on Meet The Press this Sunday and he will be the big money news when FEC reports get issued. I would expect he will be on Letterman in the new year.
I am not buying the poll numbers as I see some areas of concern:
From Field:
“The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. – Andy’s comment: I wonder if a lot of young people with only a cell phone were included.
“I am going to read the names of some Republicans”-Andy’s comment, I would bet that Ron Paul was not in the list of “some Republicans.”
Republican Congressman Ron Paul was one of only 4 Republican Congressmen to back Ronald Reagan when he first ran for POTUS.
Republican candidate Ron Pual gets more money from members of military than any other Republican candidates.
Only Ron Paul is concerned with out of control spending and the risk it poses to the solvency of Social Security and national defense.
Ron Paul does not participate in the congresssional pension plan and returns a portion of his office budget to the Treasury every year.
Lobbyists know that Ron Paul’s vote is not for sale and accordingly he received $0.00 from lobbyisits while the other candidates have received millions.
Ron Paul and Huckabee are the only ones with real bedrock principles, but Huckabee is a (nice) nut that would have no capacity for foreign policy, and is susceptible to the exact criticisms that have Bush in the 20’s approval rating range. Paul appeals to the isolationist right and middle – he should sweep Idaho, but that is about it.
Giuliani is a without any principles – give him money and KY jelly and he will do anything – give a little more money, handcuffs and a gun and he will make sure anyone will do anything. When the Fire Department and Police hate you in the only City you governed, it will not play nationwide. Plus, that dress and makeup – the South will not vote for a man in drag with a history of mistresses and gay roommates. If the primary and general was 4-6 months long, he might have had a chance – no chance now – just watch.
Romney – good luck, slick. Flip Flop man by his own party’s attacks. And the evangelicals will not vote for a mormon – ain’t gonna happen. Look out for more polygamy stories coming from utah and arizona – and for some photos of Romney with Jeffs.
McCain – sheesh, some dinosaurs just won’t die. Ol’ Curmudgeon ain’t gonna get much traction with an endorsement from Ugly Joe Lieberman, and those IED jokes on the Daly show will NEVER go away.
Tancredo – gone.
Thompson – Joke from the beginning, and a testament to the desperation of the republican party for any one but a schmuck as a presidential candidate – Look for an emergency constitutional amendment to allow AH=NoHLD as a write-in candidate.
Brother Andy.
I must commned you for your unwavering support of Ron Paul.
Let me provide the data on your man and add my own thougths.
In March 2007, and again in Aug 2007, Ron was at one percent. He jumped to four percent in Oct and dropped to three percent last week.
As to the survey. Recognizing that many of the younger generation do not use an land line I wonder if they have been participants in thsi poll or any other for that matter.
While I am asked daily as to whom I am supporting the answer is still “I don’t know.” And I have attended Orange County events to hear most of them speak.
And lastly. I appeared on a local cable program yesterday afternoon following a taping of a former LA DA/prosecutor. I shared with him the same question that no one seems to risk asking the candidates. Let me repeat it here.
If president Bush does not Pardon Campeon and Ramos, if elected, would you immediately grant them a presidential pardon. You don’t need Congressional approval.
He thougth it was a great question. So do I.
Larry, PLEASE, PLEASE check your spelling “before” hitting the send button. That’s my New Year’s resolution to you the readers.
email response.
I believe out of the GOP bunch, Rudy will do the best in California. He is more liberal on social issues than the rest of them.
I am voting for Ron Paul he is the only true conservative in this race!
Huckabee is the VP guy for Rudy,
Rudy, Rudy!
Because: Everyone wants to see
New England play Indianpolis in
the AFL Championship game!
Brady, Brady, Brady!!