Earlier this week we revealed that former State Senator Joe Dunn is considering running for Ward 3 of the Santa Ana City Council, against the sole Republican on that Council, Carlos “Space Commander” Bustamante. It is my understanding that Dunn is considering making this move so he can be in position to run for Congress if U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez moves on in the next few years to other endeavors.
While sitting on the Council would give Dunn a local title to run with, he won’t be the only one vying for Sanchez’ seat. Or for Assemblyman Jose Solorio’s seat in the state legislature. So let’s take a look at what those races might look like.
This is the big one. You can expect State Senator Lou Correa to toss his hat in the ring in addition to Dunn. But why stop there? Other local Democrats who might want to replace Sanchez include Santa Ana Councilwomen Claudia Alvarez and Michele Martinez, and Councilmen Vince Sarmiento and David Benavides. But realistically this race would come down to Dunn vs. Correa, in a match-up of heavyweights that would likely tear the local Democratic Party in half.
In the meantime, GOP Assemblyman Van Tran would likely run from the Republican side of the ticket. Other Republicans who might try to take Sanchez’ seat include Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle (not sure if he lives in the district, but much of Anaheim does lie in the 47th); O.C. Board of Education Member Alexandria Coronado; O.C. Supervisor Chris Norby, who would have to move to the sliver of Fullerton that is in the 47th; and O.C. Supervisor Janet Nguyen.
But it is likely that either Dunn or Correa would edge out the eventual Republican candidate. So who would win in a Dunn vs. Correa contest?
Dunn is very popular with the OC Democratic Party base. Correa is not. But Correa would likely do very well with the district’s Latino voters, who presumably would not want to replace Sanchez with a white guy. Correa would also attract independents and some Republicans, especially if Tran was the GOP candidate. Supervisor Nguyen would actually be a bigger threat to the Democrats in this scenario than Tran would be.
I think Correa would win this race. But it would be a bitter battle and the OC Democratic Party would be left in tatters.
69th Assembly District
Assemblyman Jose Solorio will term out in a couple of years, unleashing a mad scramble for his seat, which favors the Democrats more than the 47th Congressional District does.
Dunn would be an obvious candidate for this seat, since he already has served in the State Senate. Other possible Democratic candidates would include most of the Santa Ana City Council. It would be hilarious to see Councilman Sal Tinajero and Councilwoman Claudia Alvarez, who are currently chummy, at each other’s throat!
But given the dysfunctional nature of the Santa Ana City Council, you have to believe that Dunn would prevail over his “keystone cop” peers.
The OC GOP would likely have no candidate to oppose Dunn. By the time Solorio terms out, Santa Ana Councilman Carlos “Space Commander” Bustamante will have been off the City Council for a couple of years. He would be a total afterthought. I doubt that O.C. Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be interested in this seat. Republican SAUSD Trustees Rob Richardson and Rosie Avila have little hope of being reelected to the SAUSD Board of Trustees, much less the 69th Assembly District.
Most likely Dunn would end up running against an unknown college Republican. And Dunn would beat him senseless.
But of course Dunn needs a political title. I hope he goes after the Space Commander. As I wrote before, “Councilman” Joe Dunn has a nice ring to it!
By the way, I would be remiss if I did not note that Dunn might we be Mayor of Santa Ana by the time he has a chance to run for the Congress or the State Assembly. If Pulido moves on, either via indictment or by becoming Ambassador to Mexico, Dunn would be the top candidate to replace him. Who could possibly take Councilmen Vince Sarmiento, David Benavides or Carlos Bustamante seriously against Joe Dunn? Not me.
And if Joe Dunn was the Mayor of Santa Ana, he would have an even loftier title to use while running for either Congress or the State Assembly. That would be bad news for his Democratic opponents…
Art dude! Are you pushing to be
Joe’s Campaign Mgr.? There is
little doubt that you are dedicated! But having said that…
we believe asking Joe Dunn to be
Santa Ana Mayor….is like driving
a tack with a 10 lb. sledgehammer!
It may be convenient….it maybe
tempting….but we doubt that Joe
wants to deal Mike Harrah and the
boyz. Joe needs to think bigger.
He has Statewide appeal and would
have little problem even running
against Loretta in a primary race
and taking her out – right now!
Why does he have to wait?
Ha, I agree… Dunn for Mayor. Interesting question though now that you brought up the 69th AD: who from the Reeps’ side is running against Jose? Is young Ryan going to run again?
Poster 2,
No. Ryan is moving to San Diego at the end of this year.
The GOP will come up with some other poor young guy to toss into the breech.
That’s sad to hear. I’m sure he’ll do fine in San Diego but I wonder what made him decide to move down there? He seemed like he was doing quite well here in Santa Ana.
Poster 4,
I think he hit a wall with regard to his partisan activities. The GOP is at an all-time low in Santa Ana.
I advised Ryan to either quit the GOP and go independent, or find a city to live in that presents more political opportunities for Republicans.
Ryan has already hooked up with a leading GOP City Council candidate in San Diego. And he has been accepted by the San Diego GOP Central Committee.
Which brings me to my final point – the OC GOP Central Committee is dysfunctional. Their “machine” is falling apart with the disasters that are OC Treasurer Chris Street; OC Sheriff Mike Carona; the Measure D fall out and the Urell Amigos website fiasco.
Ryan will be better off in San Diego. He will get a fresh start and he will leave behind a party that is immolating.
The recent revelation that the mayor and certain council members are courting the Chivas soccer organization solidifies my support for Joe Dunn, Council Member, Ward 3.
I have no confidence in the current council or city manager to move this possible project forward. The after taste of Pulido, Ream, Bustamante and Alvarez’s push for One Broadway Plaza still lingers. ( How much longer will the residents be subjected to the blight Harrah, Pulido, Ream et all have created at the project site?)
I mean – Pulido will more than likely arm twist the Chivas organization to build the world’s tallest soccer stadium to satisfy his height inadequacies.
It’s time to seat a solid council member who has the experience, credibility and know-how to move this city forward. And that person is Joe Dunn.
It’s a Dunn Deal in ’08!
Speaking of a Chivas soccer stadium in Santa Ana, wouldn’t it be wonderful to make Eddie West field in Downtown Santa Ana a professional-caliber stadium? Talk about a big boost to downtown! At night, there is already enough parking and Eddie West field is easily accessible from the 5 Freeway via Santa Ana Boulevard. Go Santa Ana Chivas!
You can count on my vote for Joe Dunn, should he decide to run for council. Bustamante has been a big disappointment.
Art –
Nobody would have to move anywhere in order to run for CD 47. Congressional candidates are not required to live in the district they represent. They must live in the state, however.
Publius,
Thanks for the correction. That being the case, you can expect a stampede for Loretta’s seat when she tires of serving in the House of Representatives.