I took a look today at the 68th Assembly District and I must admit, the demographics were not what I expected.
This district includes the entire cities of Costa Mesa and Fountain Valley. And Asian voters make up only 18% of the electorate (as of 2001). White voters still make up the majority of the voters in the district.
Hispanics total 11% of the vote. But they make up 24% of the voting age population. It sounds like the Democratic Party needs to get busy with voter registration in the 68th.
The GOP does have an edge, with 45% of the vote versus 34.53% for the Democratic Party, but this is by no means a safe seat for the Republicans, not with President Bush’s popularity in the gutter.
Decline to State (DTS) voters are a big factor at 15.27% of the vote. These numbers date back to 2001 – surely there are even more DTS voters in the district by now.
GOP Assemblyman Van Tran is though to be untouchable. However, his ally, Trung Nguyen, has lost three elections in a row – all with Tran’s full support. He lost to Supervisor Janet Nguyen, and previously he lost a GOP Central Committee election (where he was the only Vietnamese candidate) and a water board election.
Another Tran ally, Andy Quach, who serves on the Westminster City Council, lost a Mayor’s race last year to Margie Rice. Did I mention that Trung lost to an older white lady too, in his water board race? It looks like the Tran cabal cannot beat women – particularly senior white women.
Van Tran also lost when he backed Lynn Daucher last year against Lou Correa, for the 34th Senate District. Couple that loss with all of Trung’s losses, and Quach’s loss, and you have a rather miserable record.
Add to that the legal problems that Tran’s wife had a year or so ago and you have a very weak candidate indeed.
I believe that the Democratic Party ought to be looking to run someone from Costa Mesa. That city has the top population in the 68th A.D. Costa Mesa Councilwoman Katrina Foley would be a great candidate!
Here is her bio., from the Costa Mesa website:
Katrina Foley was elected to the Costa Mesa City Council in November 2004. Katrina’s focus is on making Costa Mesa better for families. She has two school age boys and is married to a local teacher.
Katrina also serves her community as Chair of the Coast Community College Citizens Oversight Committee, and as a Trustee for the Vector Control Board. Prior to her election, she served on the city
Just one question Art: Which do you hate more, the Republican Party or Van Tran?
Art
You know, Art, you don’t need to rely on nearly 6 year old district data. They have current district numbers available — it’s called the Registrar of Voters.
Dem registration has fallen three-and-a-half points to 30.9%.
GOP registration has also declined, but only by half a point, to 44.7%
DTS increased more than 4 points to 19.8%.
And “unleash” Big Al Snook? You’ve got to be kidding. He’s a caricature right out of a movie.
Not in a million years will the Dems be able to knock Van out of the 68th. This looks like you working out some anti-Van Tran fantasy.
Jubal,
Thanks! I tried searching for demographics last night and the OC Registrar numbers did not come up on Google.com.
At any rate, the new numbers underscore my point. I bet the Democrats could pick up 5% more voters without a lot of effort. And the DTS voters can vote for Democrats in the primary, but not for Reeps, if I understand that correctly.
As for Al Snook, he is a known quantity in Garden Grove. He would defray votes from Tran in the primary with very little effort.
We don’t need Snook to win – just to weaken Tran and lower his numbers in the primary.
In the meantime the Democrats would rally around their candidate.
Tran can be beaten. I hope the Democrats wake up and realize that!
And the DTS voters can vote for Democrats in the primary, but not for Reeps, if I understand that correctly.
That’s only in the Feb. 5 presidential primary.
Jubal,
Are DTS voters able to participate in assembly races in the general elections? If so, the Democrats would want to target them in the 68th. They could provide the margin of victory.
Art:
Of course — anybody can vote for anybody in a general. I suppose it’s possible in theory for a Dem to upset Van Tran, but it’s improbable in the extreme.
The Dem would have to turn out and hold every Dem voter, and turn out and pick up virtually every DTS voter.
In reality, Van has run 15 points ahead of GOP registration in the last two general elections.
A Dem upset ain’t gonna happen.
LOL Big Al Snook! I just spit my coffee out all over my desk laughing. You mean the guy that talks to my breasts whenever we have a conversation? The perinnial candidate that never wins? Do you honestly consider him a viable candidate for anything?
WOW Art, from this post you really don’t have a clue. These are the best candidates you can come up with? Well unfortunately for you, looks like Tran will complete his terms in the District.
One more point:
Van got 60% of the vote in 2004, a good year for the GOP.
He got 60% in 2006, a good year for Dems.
That would indicate his support isn’t affected by national trends like voter dissatisfaction with Bush or the War.
Poster #2.
Let me introduce myself as you seem to overlook my participation on this blog.
My name is Larry Gilbert,a fiscal and social conservative Republican. As you can tell from my posts, or comments on others, I have not endorsed any candidate from my party in the upcoming presidential election because of their stance on social issues.
I can report that I voted for Tom McClintock for governor if that’s worth anything to you.
Hopefully that addresses your concerns. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Have a blessed weekend.
Larry, you AND the Winships!
Maybe you guys aren’t as obnoxious as better known conservatives are. Your easy-to-take style might put some people off, but you are definitely conservative.
Maybe that poster could turn up Rush Limbaugh REAL LOUD when reading your posts for the desired effect 😉
Jubal,
Don’t look now, but you guys have since lost the US Congress (both chambers) and it looks like you will be losing the White House soon too.
And if not for Arnold and Poizner our state would be completely blue as well.
I think there is enough dirt on Tran and company for the Democrats to come out swinging…he should not take his seat for granted.
Poster 1,
I don’t hate the GOP – but I don’t like greedy power-hungry politicos like Tran. There are far too many of them in the GOP…
“it looks like you will be losing the White House soon too”
Art,
are you doped up on cold medicine?
As we have discussed, Rudy or Mitt or Fred should take out Shrillary pretty easily.
If you drop Bloomberg in the equation, he will be the Dem’s Ross Perot and take many votes from Shrillary in New York and California among others.
Toss in the fact the Dem’s promised a plan of action and have yet to deliver.
14% approval for Congress and it’s only going to get worse.
The White House stays REP
Thoms,
If Bloomberg does run, you won’t be calling him Ross Perot, you will be calling him “El Presidente.”
Americans are sick of BOTH parties and are ready for a change at the top.
Flowerzzz,
I did not know y9ou were a female. I think i know who you are now.
#17 – LOL…you could not tell I was a female from my name? 🙂 you are welcome to e-mail me your guess – I’ll be honest and tell you!
Just for both Art and Jubal. Here is the link for voter registration done by the SecState.
Anonymous 12 –
Sorry we got here late to the party..but accusations of over doing “Oxy-cotton” we take seriously! Rush Limbaugh is strictly an apologists for most
Republican rhetorical wish list
think tank nonsense…Rush is only occasionally correct. We serve
no masters! Not Ron Paul’s…
not Matt Drudge…but they all have
their values and some we actually
agree with. We don’t approve of
those Dems that kneel at the alter
of Hillary/Obama and pray for a
quick election overturn of “truth,
justice and the American way”. As
you might want to read…like the
front page of any newspaper…there
are many on the Right that refuse
to believe in Presidential Amnesty
or Teddy Amnesty! “They both” are about as real…as those idiots in Sacramento (both sides) that want
to “neuter” all puppies and cats
by the time they reach four months
old. We have no clue whether “that
issue” is conservative or liberal..
but we know it is wrong! Go Rudy..
we have plenty of clothspins to
make it through that Republican victory “with the man”! Tran? Oh,
for goodness sake…who cares?