At long last the field of candidates for the 1st Supervisorial District is set. Here are the candidates, in the order I believe they will come in. I am also noting their cities of residence, the percentage of votes I think they will get, and a few notes about each one:
1. Tom Umberb (D-Villa Park) – Yes, he is a carpetbagger. But he has also represented most of the cities in the 1st District. He has tons of name I.D., but his reputation took a hit when he lied to voters about his whereabouts, and when he cheated on his loyal, long-suffering wife. Yet, he will be endorsed by his party and he will take advantage of a GOP split to earn a likely victory. (30%)
2. Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) – The only viable female candidate – young, yet experienced. Conservative yet able to appeal to moderates and liberals. Unfortunately, Van Tran is out to get her, for no reason I can discern, and his “Trannies” are supporting Trung Nguyen instead. If Umberg wins, Tran and company will deserve 100% of the blame! (20%)
3. Benny Diaz (D-Garden Grove) – Si se puede! Well, maybe not, but Diaz is the only Latino Democrat on the ballot. That bodes ill for Carlos Bustamante…but can Benny get enough money from labor unions to print up signs? I’m betting he will. Go Benny! (12%)
4. Carlos Bustamante (R-Santa Ana) – Should have gone with the Democrats Carlos. I’m still not sure why he switched to the GOP. Lincoln Club will waste thousands on this guy. Oh well. He won’t place in the top three and he won’t even be reelected to his council seat in two years. (10%)
5. Trung Nguyen – (R-Garden Grove) – The campaign hasn’t even started and someone already broke into his office and stole his computers. How will his campaign staffers entertain themselves now? Let’s send them some decks of poker cards… (8%)
6. Mark Rosen (D-Garden Grove) – Would have been in contention if Umberg had not run. Too bad – he is a smart guy and he deserves a better fate. Will definitely go dirty on Umberg. It won’t help. (7%)
7. Kermit Marsh (R-Westminster) – Popular guy in the OC GOP. Totally unknown outside of Westminster. But he takes votes away from Bustamante. Go Kermit! (5%)
8. Lupe Moreno (R-Santa Ana) – Got almost 25% of the vote against Lynn Daucher this year in the primary election. Will get enough anti-immigration votes to cost Bustamante dearly. (4%)
9. Brett Franklin (R-Santa Ana) – Nice guy. He would make a fine supervisor, but his role in this election is simple – take out Bustamante. Thanks Brett! (3%)
10. Larry Phan – (D-Garden Grove) Strictly a vanity candidate. Yes, he is respected in his community. No, he is not known outside his community. Good luck Larry. You would have been better off by endorsing Janet Nguyen. (1%)
Umm…according to your post, the Trannies are putting Umberg in first place, but the math in your post contradicts this claim.
Tom Umberg=30%
Janet Nguyen=20%
Trung Nguyen=8%
“Van Tran is out to get her, for no reason I can discern, and his ‘Trannies’ are supporting Trung Nguyen instead. If Umberg wins, Tran and company will deserve 100% of the blame!”
Janet Nguyen and Trung Nguyen combined in your predictions are 28%, as opposed to your prediction of Tom Umberg getting 30%.
Poster 1,
I did that on purpose. It is not just the votes that Trung takes from Janet – it is the money and support that he also leaches from her that is ultimately fatally damaging. If Trung were not in the race at all, not only would Janet get his votes, she would also take votes from the other candidates, as she would be the leading Republican candidate. Instead we are left with a split ticket – all for petty, egoistic reasons. Very sad indeed.
Where’s Dornan?
If all that is needed is name recognition and a used carpet in a suitcase.
Or another well known name. Mary Kay Fualaau.
And if only everyone else had not filed, then Janet might even come in first!
Come on, Art. Trung will outpoll Janet in the Viet vote (and maybe overall) and Kermit hurts Rosen, Umberg and Janet – in that order – more than Carlos.
Kermit outpolls Janet, Rosen outpolls Kermit, and Carlos outpolls Rosen.
Janet cant win. She would be the spoiler in this race, except that she may not draw enough votes from anywhere to make any difference at all.
Interesting predictions, Art.
Lest we forget though, any one of these candidates could potentially shoot themselves in the foot with any number of circumstances.
I.E.: (*possibly* breaking into one’s own campaign office, sending out superflous press releases regarding blogger comments, getting caught in a steamy affair with someone other than your wife/husband, etc.)
The possibilities are endless!
I learned the breaking-into-one’s-own-campaign-office routine from my brief dealings with Louisiana politicos. It works quite well if you don’t get caught 😉
Note the above sarcasm… it’s early here in Houston.
If I read the articles in press correctly, 80% or more of the voters will not vote. To me, that means that they don’t care about this office. Whoever wins the seat may capture less than 10% of the eligible voters, not exactly a mandate. But, whomever the winner is will most likely feel empowered and feel that he or she is the people’s choice. Let’s periodically remind that person how many elligible voters did not vote for him or her to see if we can keep him or her grounded in reality.
People have speculated that Umberg cut a deal with Claudia to keep her out of the race. I don’t think that is true since she showed up at the Registrar’s Office and looked surprised to see Umberg. I think she figured she could not beat him and decided to close shop. She made the correct decision.
For the video go to ocblog.net
Pedroza what is wrong with my folowing post?
Why did you censure it?
Where is the profanity?
Are you melancholic again?
-Stan
Here we go again!
Pedroza and anonymous talking heads are engaging in a sport of politic instead of voting their conscience.
This is perhaps a single reason why the American elections suck and why the talking heads demand therm limits.
They simply forgot how to elect a leader.
-Stan
Hey Art,
How about a little bowl game type drama? Why don’t you agree to wear a Hilary for President sweatshirt for a month or put I love Van Tran bumper stickers on your car if Janet places 5th or lower in the election. Maybe other bloggers can come up with their own self imposed punishments if they are wrong in their 1st District predicitons.
How does the unknown Benny Diaz get 12% of the vote without stuffing the ballot box?
OC Blog has posted the ballot order of the 1st District candidate, as follows:
1. Phan
2. Franklin
3. Bustamante
4. Umberg
5. Marsh
6. Moreno
7. Diaz
8. Rosen
9. Nguyen (Janet)
10. Nguyen (Trung)
I don’t think this does much for Phan, but it is awful news for Trung. Bustamante got a nice slot, but Franklin is ahead of him and Marsh and Moreno are not far behind. And Umberg is ahead of Rosen – just as he will be on Election Day.
I only wish that Diaz had ended up ahead of Bustamante. Oh well.
How is the ballot order determined?
Umberg gets Democratic Pary endorsement tonight. here comes the blitzkreig.
Looks like I was right about Umberg. The Dems mean business! The Reeps look like keystone cops by comparison…