Total Buzz: Daucher is losing some ground

Martin Wisckol, at the OC Register’s Total Buzz blog, wrote a post yesterday about the Daucher vs. Correa race for the 34th, opining that Daucher is now losing ground. She has lost some of her lead against Correa, but she is still well ahead. Here is Wiskcol’s article:

November 11, 2006

34th update: Momentum changes

LYNN DAUCHER (REP) 46926 50.4%

LOU CORREA (DEM) 46162 49.6%

For the first tally since Wednesday, Daucher has lost ground — although she still leads by 764 votes. I just got home from seeing “Running With Scissors” (very good!) to find an optimistic phone message from Mike Levin, executive director with the OC Democratic Party. If you’ve been following the race on this blog, you know that Levin has been among those predicting this momentum change. His current mathematics conclude that Correa will have nearly caught up by the time Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley gets to the counting the provisional ballots.

Levin calculated that Correa won 53 percent of today’s count. He predicts that the final counting of absentee ballots will find Correa trailing by just 70 votes. After Election Day paper ballots are counted, he has Correa trailing by 35-40 votes. Then come the provisional ballots — there are estimated to be 1,000-1,500 valid ones for the Senate District and according to most models, they would favor Correa.

Kelley has avoided predicting when the count would be concluded. But in listening to him explain the process, I think we may see everything but the provisionals finished in the coming week. The provisionals, however, are a more timely process and could take a week or two more to count. And if we end up with final count showing the two within 100 votes or so of each other, don’t be surprised to see a recount.

With 694 write-ins cast on Election Day — and unknown number cast absentee — is there anybody out there now saying that decoy write-in Republican Otto Bade might not play a role in the outcome?

There have been a couple of comments from Brent suggesting the math is stacked against Correa. But I spoke last night with a Republican official closely involved with the race, and I’d be surprised if there isn’t a bit more concern from Daucher’s side after today’s count.

— Martin Wisckol

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