Here’s the latest update from the Times OC edition:
Republican Lynn Daucher widened her lead over Democrat Lou Correa to 833 votes Friday as absentee and provisional ballot counting continued in the 34th state Senate district race.Daucher led by just 13 votes after election night, but that has grown as county officials have continued to count ballots.More than 5,600 ballots were counted Friday, and an estimated 18,000 remain.Officials said they planned to continue the count today, take a break Sunday, then resume next week.
The point has been made that Correa would have to win 80% of the remaining ballots in order to prevail. That is not going to happen.
Congratulations State Senator Daucher!
Art: check your math. The 80% figure is completely wrong. Lou needs to win about 53% of the remaining votes to win the race.
Here’s what’s left:
100,000 absentees (70,000 election day)
22,000 provisionals
5,600 election day paper
The ONLY universe here that will swing for Daucher are the 30,000 or so early absentees. The rest will swing for Lou.
I hope we can find some tasty crow for you.
Art,
As some people have pointed out, the votes that were counted first were the earlier absentees. As predicted, Lynn’s count is dropping and I expect that they will drop even more when the provisional and Election Day paper ballots are counted.
I do have a good recipe for Roast Crow that I will pass along to you when ALL of the votes are counted.
Until that time though, grandiose predictions of victory for either candidate are probably out of the realm of reality and should be avoided, unless of course we
Guys,
Daucher was not expected to win – if she does win it will be an incredible victory. If she loses, then Correa will be lucky to have won – but he had the odds with him to begin with.
I personally hope that Correa will lose. This would be a great way for the GOP to start to take back central OC.
and today (Saturday) Daucher’s lead narrowed to 764 votes. The trend continues to move in Lou’s direction…
Among votes counted today, Lou beats Lynn by 69 votes (1.2%). Expect his lead each day to continue to grow.
The question remains – will this wave be large enough to dissolve Lynn’s lead entirely? Are there enough ballots left to count?
My “grandiose prediction” – this one goes to provisionals and election day paper ballots, with Lou winning slightly. Small enough lead for a recount to be expected.
Could you please launch another investigative inquire in regards to the Vietnamese VBM program?
An earlier post at the Ocblog questioned a Vietnamese radio ad that stated in vietnamese that you needed to turn in your ballots today at our office, or for asistance in filling it out come to our office.
Which office are they talking about? The Registra, Van Tran’s, Tan Nguyen, Lynn Daucher.
We need Republican Mark Leyes to launch another investigation inquire on the Vietnamese VBM program.
Yikes! Sal seems to be loosing his lead. Not good. I hope this pattern does not contrinue.
SAL TINAJERO
10654
41.9%
JENNIFER VILLASENOR
10265
40.4%
And Dina Nguyen has far outpaced your friend, Harry Krebs for GG Council. Go Dina!!!
Posters 6 and 7,
Yes I am concerned about Ward 6. I hope that Collins continues to pull votes from Villasenor.
As for Dina, it does look like she is benefiting from a late surge – and if she wins it will be interesting if she keeps her word and votes for the Wal Mart store in Garden Grove. Otherwise we will know she was a liar and cannot be trusted.