OC Register editorial writer Steve Greenhut is postulating that perhaps it is time for “Republicans for Correa” to start up, but as has been pointed out here at the Orange Juice, there are a number of prominent Democrats endorsing Lynn Daucher, including Anaheim Councilwoman Lorri Galloway. As such it appears that “Democrats for Daucher” is already underway.
Besides, who would be in charge of Greenhut’s imaginary group? Lupe Moreno and Abie Garcia are no longer Republicans. I certainly have no interest in such an effort. Perhaps Tim Whitacre might do it? I don’t think so. What about Carlos Bustamante? (See picture at right). Well, if anything I might suspect him of starting a “Rino’s for Corrrea,” but so far he has resisted the urge to do so, at least as far as we know.
The Daucher campaign is actually getting stronger. They started running cable TV ads last week. I am told that Correa won’t be doing so as there are not many spots left to buy. Daucher also picked up a lot of publicity when she teamed with the OC GOP to buy a booth at this past weekend’s Fiestra de las Americanas festival in Santa Ana.
You also have to figure that Correa is going to be dragged down by the desperate and pathetic Phil Angelides. Daucher on the other hand will likely get a push from those voting for Schwarzenegger. Many Latinos are not voting for Angelides because they want him to lose so that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa can run for Governor in 2010. They will either vote for Schwarzenegger or stay home and not vote at all. In both cases, Correa loses.
Moreover, local Republican candidates in Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Santa Ana will be walking GOP slate pieces that will feature Daucher. I doubt that local Democrat candidates in those cities will be doing much for Correa. In Santa Ana, the Mayor, Miguel Pulido, and his acolytes are running scared. They are too busy saving their own hides to bother with Correa. The Democrats are likewise distracted in Garden Grove and Anaheim.
Will Correa end up having to rely on the unions for help? Good luck. Many of the union bosses are still mad that Correa is running for the 34th Senate District. They wanted Tom Umberg to run for the 34th. I suspect that their support for Correa will be lukewarm at best.
Finally, the more Greenhut rips Daucher, the more he will drive moderate and Democrat voters to her. Her odds are actually looking pretty good. And she is surely working harder than Correa. I know for a fact that Daucher is walking precincts every day. Does Correa still remember how to do that? If the unions are not happy with him, where will he find volunteers?
I remember when the OC Weekly endorsed Reuben Ross over Correa, a few years ago. I wonder if they will end up backing Daucher this time instead of Correa?
Good luck Daucher. In my neighborhood CORREA lawn signs are popping up like daisies. This race is Lou’s to lose. On another note, TINAJERO signs apprently are getting some Miracle Grow because his signs are also popping up.
Last I checked, they do not drive around counting yard signs to determine the victor.
And as for the race being Lou’s to lose,it looks like chubby needs to run a little faster, Lynn’s pulling ahead.
And someone tell Big Sal Tenajarro that telephone polls still cannot vote in Santa Ana. Maybe they could in the elections he and his buddy Nativo were involved with, but not in Council Races. Lo siento mucho Sally!
Anon,
You are making two large errors. One is claiming Nativo and Sal are still friends, which is not the case.
Secondly, the mayor and his ilk, have hardly ever been seen with signs in resident’s yards rather on posts, public and sometimes private fences, yet they still manage to when election. Your analysis of Sal doing the same, only means he is doing what works.
Yard signs are another means of advertising the candidate. Sometimes voters are lulled in believing a candidate’s credibiity by the number of mailed brochures & yard signs scattered throughout the city.
No, yard signs alone do not determine the victor. It is merely another tool in the campaign kit.
One must also remember yard signs are not for the voter who follows the issues. It is for the voters who do not follow the issues and that appears to lots of voters.
for #3 … you commented that ..”telephone polls still cannot vote in Santa Ana.” Do tell, where can they vote and are there plans for telephone polls to vote in Santa Ana?
Your I-factor is showing.
Que lastima.
“Besides, who would be in charge of Greenhut’s imaginary group? Lupe Moreno…”
I’m trying to imagine why you rip Lupe now after you were so sure she could beat Daucher in the primary. It’s kinda funny how then you were so sure that rino Daucher would lose to Correa in the general.
It seems that eihter your prior analysis about the general election was incorrect or all of your political analysis are consistently wrong. Which is it?
Nevertheless, I have more questions(comments).
“What about Carlos Bustamante? (See picture at right). Well, if anything I might suspect him of starting a “Rino’s for Corrrea,” but so far he has resisted the urge to do so, at least as far as we know.”
Do you really believe that Bustamante will be supporting Correa? Is this another one of your scenarios that is not going to turn out. The fact is that Bustamante will align himself with Arnold and Lynn so to appease the republicans. He absolutely gets nothing by supporting Correa? Sure, he wants Lou’s seat but you and I know that his endorsement adds little to Correa.
Moreover, if you and Bubba gump were in the running for starting any group supporting Correa, I believe you would get the nod because of all your past negative comments concerning Daucher.
“Daucher also picked up a lot of publicity when she teamed with the OC GOP to buy a booth at this past weekend’s Fiestra de las Americanas festival in Santa Ana.”
Absolutely 99% of the voting eligible people at the Fiestra de las Americanas festival in Santa Ana will be voting for Correa.
Art, the publicity Lynn received will do nothing when the voting Latinos see both Correa’s name with the d by it on election day.
“Many Latinos are not voting for Angelides because they want him to lose so that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa can run for Governor in 2010.”
Where do you get this stuff? This made up stuff brings little credibility to your comments.
Besides, if these “many Latinos” get a October mailer from Correa’s friend Antonio there goes your vote “for Schwarzenegger or stay home and not vote at all” scenario.
Moreover, there is no way that the local democratic party is not going to “do little” for correa and risk softening the democrat’s Latino base. In your scenario the local democrats, the unions and including Loretta Sanchez will not help Correa.
Yeah, when Donkey’s fly! Or should I say when Lynn flys.
Art:
It’s really amazing the type of bombastic comments that rip from you key pad. Do you really believe that “Miguel Pulido, and his acolytes are running scared .. . [and] are too busy saving their own hides to bother with Correa”?
Please, other than you and few fringe wing nuts, there are few people that would believe such a lame statement. Miguel won’t even break a sweat in his campaign nor will the people he endorsed.
Art,
SERIOUSLY, do you think a carpetbagging white bread canidate like Lynn Daucher is better for the Senate District than Correa.
If you say yes, I’m dissapointed. You seem passionate, yet reasonable in your views (most of which I disagree with). The 34th would be much better served by someone like you, who knows and loves the area.
When is everyone going to wake up and vote their consience and not the party. Daucher has no more business running in Santa Ana than Duncan Hunter.
JM
7:24 and JM,
Yes, the candidates running against Pulido and his cronies are underdogs – but believe me he is nervous. There are many distinct constituencies that are upset with Pulido. His undoing of Garcia, for example, will lead many Democrats to vote against Pulido and company. And remember that Pulido has to run again in two years…
As for Daucher and Correa, yes she is an outsider, but Correa is hardly the perfect candidate. He is deeply flawed, and his own base is uncomfortable with him. He has prevailed up until now because his opponents were unknown and underfunded. Such is not the case now. We may not agree on the outcome of this election, but the campaigns will be noisy and interesting going forward. What more can a blogger ask for?
6:59,
I never said Moreno was going to win. We knew she was an underdog from day one. Her goal was to get her issues out – and we did that.
I did not rip Moreno. She left the GOP – so it is impossible for her to lead a group of Republicans for Correa. Plus she despises Correa!
As for Latino Dems and Angelides, please, do you not read the papers? Why do you think Fabian Nunez is bending over backwards to sign bills with the Governor? Trust me on this one – Latino Dems in power do not want Angelides to win. They want him to lose so that Villaraigosa can run for an open seat in 2010. Angelides will lose in a landslide in November – that is not debatable.
And a Villaraigosa mailer would not do much for Correa in the OC. Correa needs walkers and phone callers – and money – but Pulido and company are sucking up all the money and volunteers for their own greedy ambitions.
Question Art
Is it the “latino dems in power” or the latinos that don’t wan’t Angelides to win?
Do you really believe that Fabian and other democratic latino leaders or lifelong latino democrats will “either vote for Schwarzenegger or stay home and not vote at all”? What papers are you reading?
Then, there’s the undebatable fact that you admitted concerning Angelides prospects. If that’s the case then don’t you maybe think that Fabian knows Angelides losing by a “landslide” chances.
Lastly, I only included a Villaraigosa mailer because you kind of implied that Latinos will not support the democratic ticket, much more a Correa candidicy.
Lou will get his share of the money, then the walkers and phoners will follow.
Given that more voters in the SD know Correa than Daucher, he can wait before launching his bombs.
Then when its all over, we’ll clean up the mess and watch Daucher ride off in the sunset towards Brea.
Art really does like to make this stuff up as he goes along.
Let’s see, Correa has beaten Jim Morissey (an INCUMBENT Assemblyman), Brett Franklin (an INCUMBENT city councilman), Kermit Marsh (an INCUMBENT city councilman), Bruce Broadwater (an INCUMBENT mayor – twice), and Tom Umberg (and INCUMBENT Assemblyman). I believe Lou was outspent in at least two of those elections.
So much for your statement that “his opponents were unknown and underfunded.”
And as far as walkers, callers, and money… Correa certainly needs more (any candidate does) but he seems to be doing just fine so far.
Poster #12: You bring up more valid points to demonstrate how senseless Art’s post are.
Art, when was the last time you spoke with a broadbase of Santa Ana voters? Just talking to few upset pals with whom you associate doesn’t quite count as broad.
Only a handful of people know what Miguel did to Mike. And, you are not one of them. Voters don’t go into the poll booth and say “I’m going to vote for anyone but Miguel because of what he did to Mike.” This latter statement is particularly true when few people actually know what occured (point of information: you not being one of them).
Please inform us Insider Art who the contituencies are that will not vote for Miguel? And, just because people don’t like Miguel doesn’t they vote for the other no name running. People may choose not to vote at all. I’m sure you haven’t consider that Art Stephanopoulos.
Art, your ad hominem attacks are legion and your facts are absent.
“his opponents were unknown and underfunded”
As it turns out Ducher is the weakest opponent Correa has yet encountered. He will beat her like a big old bass drum!
Sign on telephone polls, chain link fences, public right of way street medians and strip mall light poles do not vote. However, homes with lawn signs have residents who support and will vote for that particular candidate come Nov. 7. Lou is a populist and loved in his district. Daucher is a nice lady, but she really has no business running for the 34th. Like I said before, this race is Lou’s to lose. On another note, who cares who the mayor and the chamber support. Claudia and Carlos were elected without these endorsements.
11:40,
Oh really? Morrissey had no political experience prior to getting elected to the Assembly. Not so with Daucher.
Franklin, Marsh and Broadwater have no legislative experience.
Umberg did have that experience – but he lied to his wife and the voters. And that was that.
Daucher is a much better candidate than the ones you listed. Is she perfect? No, but neither is Correa.
Claudia won because Can Do Lou Correa did a $30,000 IE for her in the final week of the election and Carlos won because the guy he ran against was not well liked and ran a bad campaign and some thought he was really his cousin Cruz Bustamonte. In addition he was the only Mexican in the race. He won’t be so lucky again.
But Art, calling the Lou’s prior opponents “unknown and underfunded” is blatantly false.
And Morrissey may indeed have lacked “political experience PRIOR to getting elected to the Assembly” but that was when he was first elected (defeating Mike Metzler, remember?).
Correa beat him after Jim M. was in office for TWO terms, had plenty of funding, huge name ID, and all the advantages of incumbency.
As for Franklin, Marsh, and Broadwater, when they ran against Lou for Supervisor, they each had represented a good portion of the voters in the 1st District. Voters had seen their names on the ballot numerous times and elected them. Daucher (before the June Primary) was a new and unfamiliar name to 90% of the voters in the 34th. Lou is known.
And you honestly can’t think that Miguel and the SA establishment are “nervous” about their opponents. It’s not like Pulido ever involves himself in helping out the local partisan candidates anyway, even when he lacks real opposition. So no loss for Lou.
You continue to use illogical, non-fact-based arguments.
What color is the sky in your fantasy world, Art?
11:03,
To be honest, I was alluding in my statement to Otto Bade and Reuben Ross. However, as I pointed out earlier today, the candidates for Supervisor were not anywhere near as experienced or well-known as Correa.
Consider, for example, the fact that former Santa Ana Mayor Pro-Tem Brett Franklin received less votes in a subsequent campaign for the Rancho Santiago Community College District Board of Trustees than Reuben Ross.
Morrisey, by the way, was defeated by Correa when he hired a Democrat consultant, and put his campaign in the hands of another Democrat, Brenda Quintana. Their strategy was to “out-Democrat” Correa, but their collateral was stupid. They actually invested thousands of dollars in a full color walk piece and mailer that talked about how the Santa Ana City Council declared a “Jim Morrissey Day.” Of course, voters yawned. Correa’s mailers talked about real issues, including health care, police/crime, etc. Morrissey deserved to lose.
Daucher, very wisely, is focusing on education. And she is very credible in that area. She is not repeating Morrissey’s mistakes. Her campaign manager is a Republican and he has a lot of experience – in major races. She is appealing to Democrats and independents, but not in the lame fashion employed by Morrissey. She also is working with our other Republican candidates – something Morrissey simply did not do.
Broadwater, by the way, lost to Correa because he was weak on eminent domain and traffic issues. Correa did what he always does – he went right to the issues and trashed Broadwater. It will be interesting to see what Correa does with Daucher. I suspect he will go after her on eminent domain – but don’t forget that Correa supported the unpopular El Toro Airport concept. That issue helped to defeat Cynthia Coad.
Art,
“Correa supported the unpopular El Toro Airport concept”
Is this Daucher’s hit piece material. Who cares? I don’t believe any central
oc candidate has talked about this issue within the last year or two. In fact, reviewing your previous posts/comments for this year, I can’t find where even you were concerned about this issue.
Considering how well Correa did in the last election I thinking the voters aren’t concerned either.
Morrisey/Correa? Who cares? We’ve heard your accounts a thousand times before. Isn’t Democrat Brenda Q helping out Daucher this time? Does it change anything?
Education issue? Education in this Senate distict is alot different than the district that Daucher presided over. Parents in Garden Grove have different concerns/issues/problems than Daucher had/has a parent and grandparent.
12:48,
Perhaps, but Villaraigosa keeps making noise about airports in general. I am told however, by transportation experts, that the real answer lies in high speed trains lines that would connect OC to Ontario and to LAX. Makes sense.
I have no idea what Quintana is up to at this point. I can’t see her holding down a real job, outside of government, so perhaps she is still advising legislative candidates. Who cares, as you put it? She did her damage when she guided Morrissey to defeat.
As for education issues, it is apparent you don’t know that Daucher served on the Brea school board for a long time. She has the support of many county teachers. I suspect many teachers that vote in the 34th will go with her over Correa. Which way will parents go, in a senate district that includes what Miguel Pulido calls the “worst school district in the state?” We’ll find out in November.
ARt:
You never answered the previous poster’s questions (#13). Please engligten us as to what happened between the Mayor and Mike Garcia and tell us who these constituencies are that are going to rise up and vote for the person running against our Mayor.
Art-
You made the claim that Correa “has prevailed up until now because his opponents were unknown and underfunded.” This statement implies that most, if not all of these elections were easy wins.
In his last 6 contested elections, I pointed to 4 in which I would call Lou’s opponents WELL-known and WELL-funded. I’ll give you Otto Bade and Rueben Ross as sacrificial lambs for the GOP. Will you please finally admit that Lou has prevailed in some tough elections?
Sometimes, the facts just can’t be twisted to bolster one of your poor arguments.
And candidates, RUN away, don’t walk away, when Art P. offers his assistance to your campaign. It has been proven to be the surest predictor of defeat.
But Art remains the only one who can tune in to the special frequency where Loretta Sanchez repeatedly calls herself the world’s greatest expert on education.
Mr. Pedroza—The question: Is Lou Correa waiting to see the whites of Lynn Daucher’s eyes before he starts to campaign and if so, is he going to wait too long? Lots of mail by Daucher…nada for Correa.
I disagree with your analysis on the Correa election. He rode a wave of Latino Democratic registration and total disenchantment by Latinos with the GOP after Prop. 186. And he worked hard. Don’t blame Quintana…she just impletemented the strategy which was smart given his desperate situation–they had nothing to lose—but Lou had too much going for him and Morrisey was in fact too conservative to play to enough Dems, especially given 186. They didn’t try to “out-Democrat” Lou, only tried to take away a few key Democrat issues that were popular.
By the way, she is working for someone whom you probably also believe is trying to “out-Democrat” his opponent—Governor Schwarzenegger. Looks like his strategy is working just fine.
“it is apparent you don’t know that Daucher served on the Brea school board for a long time”
Art I’m familar with her service and was alluding to the fact that the schools in Brea are differnet than the ones in this Senate District.
Do they even have any title 1 schools in that district?
What experience does she have in working with school officials/parents/students in improving a title 1 school?
There a big diffrence from Brea and Santa Ana schools and her school experience over there doesn’t impress me.
1:36,
Brea’s schools are indeed pretty good – and I would think it would be helpful to have a legislator in place who knows what schools ought to be like. Clearly we need help from those outside the system, as those on the inside are struggling. Teachers in particular need help from those who understand what they have to deal with, day in and day out.
OK, OK… Let’s get back to the facts:
Fact: SD 34 is a minority-majority district. Correa is a native Latino, while Daucher is coming here from “lily-white” Brea.
Fact: Eminent domain can be a big issue in Central OC. While Correa has been on the record opposing eminent domain abuse, Daucher abused eminent domain herself while on the Brea City Council.
Fact: Correa has numerous volunteers walking for him every weekend, as well as calling every evening. Now Daucher… I have no clue.
Fact: The CDP (state Dems) just opened an office in Anaheim, and they’re “ready to rumble”. Hmmm… Does Team GOP even have an office near SD 34?
Fact: Don Perata’s ready to go “all in” for Lou, while Dick Ackerman’s already “all in” for Lynn.
Fact: Arnold doesn’t seem to have coattails with any other GOP candidates (save possibly McPherson and Poizner… and Poizner’s now in deep s*** over lying about insurance co donations)… But anyways, Loretta always seems to ahve coattails in Central OC! And Loretta wants to make sure SD 34 stays blue.
So while Lou may have to fight hard to win this seat, he probably still has the upper hand. Especially now that the CDP is going all out on this one, you better believe they won’t stop fighting until they see victory on Nov 7.
“Clearly we need help from those outside the system, as those on the inside are struggling.”
There nothing wrong with asking for help. (i.e. Deregulation that gives local entities the right to re-focus on the basics without all that red-tape.)
However, I see Lynn candidacy, as you apparently do, as relinquising some control to someone outside our local schools. I’m for local control of our schools and not big on the idea that our schools savior comes from affluent Brea.