Refund anyone? Williams looks smarter than his GOP peers
A little pajarito shared some interesting information with me today, about the June primary results in central OC. We know that Tan Nguyen beat Rosie Avila in the 47th Congressional District, and Lynn Daucher defeated Lupe Moreno in the 34th State Senate District. They each spent over a quarter million dollars to defeat their conservative opponents.
Meanwhile, over in the 69th Assembly District, Ryan Gene Williams ran unnopposed for the GOP nomination. He ended up with 7,105 votes out of 40,350 Republicans. That
“No candidate would waste any money if he/she ran unopposed. Duh…”
Pham, of course you forget the 2000 candidate Lou Lopez. His campaign spent close to $150k pre-primary… unopposed… to build up name ID.
Despite Ryan’s low name-ID, I think he’s doing quite well.
Since Jose is no Lou Correa,
he is going to suffer from the identity of being a city councilmember and some of the votes and actions he’s taken on said council.
Granted he may be a nice guy in person, but his voting record does speak for itself.
Due to the Daucher race and the Gov’s re-election, I think the GOP will come out and some Dems may stay home since their top of the ticket is the un-energetic Phil Angelides.
I believe the election results will end up as a 60/40 election, making it the best performance any Republican candidate has done since Jim Morrisey.
Ryan shines his best when he reaches across party lines and that will definately help him in Central OC and in possible future campaigns, if he decides to run again down the road.
pham,
Why do you think the turnout was so low? I believe that voters are becoming disenfranchised by both the Dems and the GOP – you yourself are an independent, right?
And the point of this post was not to bash the candidates, but rather to point out the fact that Ryan did pretty well for not having spent any money. And Daucher blew way too much money in the primary. I think Tan did too, but at least he was facing a more experienced opponent in Rosie.
Lastly, even if the party unifies behind these candidates, the numbers just are not there. None of these candidates are from the districts they are running for, only one has any legislative experience, and all three are facing experienced, popular Democrats.
The real lesson here is that the OC GOP has massively failed in central OC – and the numbers in the upcoming general will bear that out.
As for Tim, I spoke to him on Friday. He is working on some posts and will hopefully get something online by early next week…
Brock–you are correct. I should have added “sensible” candidate. I’ve never met Williams and don’t have an opinion of him.
Art– yes, I remain a GOP-leaning independent. Why was the 47th CD GOP turnout so low at 23.6% vice 32% for the rest of OC’s GOP voters? Could that 8.4% gap be part of the voter “reregistering” effort and that the gap in the overlapping 34th SD could also be wider than the numbers show?
There was an article a week ago in the OCR about the rise in decline to state (DTS) voters in the O.C., with 24% in Irvine and 29% increase in Fullerton since 2002. The dilemma is that who do these DTS voters, like me, vote for? Definitely not as much for American Independents, Libertarians, Green, Reform, etc…as for GOP or DEM candidates. Same story. DTS voters need/want DTS candidates!
DTS registration far outnumber third parties yet it would have taken me quite an effort to gather nearly 6,000 signatures from qualified voters in the 47th Congressional District, between June 12 and August 11, to be placed on the general election ballot in November. Only five independent candidates for the US House have qualified in California in the last 30 years. It is the 4th most difficult petition requirement for US House in the nation. Only Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina exceed 3% of the number of registered voters. Georgia is 5% of the registered voters, North Carolina is 4% of the registered voters, and South Carolina is a flat 10,000 signatures. http://www.ballot-access.org/
One of the things that the Secretary of California needs to change for 2008 is to allow DTS congressional candidates a longer period to collect signatures. That time period should start at the begining of the primary season (for 2006, in March vice June).
I believe the major parties only require dozens or so signatures to qualify their candidates for their primaries.
Interesting races: independent gubernatorial candidates in Oregon and Texas…and maybe Sen. Joe Lieberman who would not be able to run as an Indie in Calif. if he were to lose in his upcoming primary…
In central OC: What about the credibility of the candidates? Nguyen and Williams are first-time GOP candidates who have not been in the area very long. Daucher is known as a “RINO” who has had to move to remain eligible to run.
My top take-away yesterday from the Matt Lewis-led candidate training.
Message = Emotion, Contrast, Connection and Credibility
You tell me if these three candidates possess a strong message and the means to reach GOP and DTS voters in central OC. Forget swaying the DEMs. That’s why the GOP needs to show up via absentee ballot and on Nov. 7th to have any shot.
GOP (38%) + DTS (17%) > DEMs in the 47th CD…assuming 100% turnout 🙂
Quang Pham brings up two salient points. Like Pham, I attended the Lincoln Club candidate’s training and I also agree that all the non-incumbent candidates in central O.C. must consider the DTS voters. I believe a lot of voters are going to cross over if they find someone who provides the more Emotion, Contrast, Connection and Credibility then their party nominees.
3:19,
More Emotion, Contrast, Connection and Credibility? Well, for starters, the Democrats are the party that attracts emotional types. The GOP is supposed to be for logical thinkers, as is the Liberterian Party.
As for contrast, there is precious little of that between Daucher and Correa. If anything he swings more Republican and she swings more Democrat, on important issues like eminent domain abuse.
There might be contrast between “Think Tan” and Loretta, but who knows? Two years ago he was a Dem, and she was a Republican before she got into the House of Representatives. I suspect they agree more than they disagree.
Connection and Credibility? Well, there again the Dems have the advantage. Incumbency is powerful, and while Correa and Solorio are not incumbents, they might as well be. Of the OC GOP candidates in central OC, only one of them has political experience, and of course that would be the RINO, Daucher. Good grief!
Let’s face it, all the Lincoln Club training in the world is not going to help us this year in Central OC. We basically have to roll up our sleeves and start over…and it is going to be a long haul indeed.
The only wild card in this equation is Arnold. If he campaigns in Central OC, even once or twice, it will help the rest of the Republican ticket immensely.
Pham is either misinformed or attempting to mislead.
In 2002 Loretta did not transfer $500K to Linda. She certainly helped Linda raise money in the primary (and to a lesser extent, the general).
Check the reports online at http://www.fec.gov to confirm.
“More Emotion, Contrast, Connection and Credibility? Well, for starters, the Democrats are the party that attracts emotional types. The GOP is supposed to be for logical thinkers”
What the blazes are you talking about, Art? Are you being sarcastic, or do you actually believe such a nonsensical statement?
It
“Think Tan” was when he was a dem. So “Think Tan” if you’re a liberal. “Go With Tan” if you’re a conservative. “Vote for Tan” if you’re an idiot.
“Vote for Tan” if you’re an idiot …Thank you Anonymous, Tan appreciates your Vote!!!!