Will Democrats unite in central Orange County?
While perusing the blogosphere today I came across an item by my favorite political reporter, Martin Wisckol, over at his OC Register blog, Total Buzz. Wisckol was responding to my post about a possible game plan for the OC GOP in central Orange County. My plan calls for the three Republican candidates in this area, Lynn Daucher, Ryan Gene Williams and Tan Nguyen to unite their efforts and entice the Governor to campaign in central OC. However, I am assuming that their Democrat counterparts, Jose Solorio, Lou Correa, and Loretta Sanchez, will likewise unite against them. But will they?
Sanchez supported Solorio’s opponent, Armando de la Libertad, during the primary for the 69th Assembly Caucus. Correa supported the other Democrat candidate for the 69th, Claudia Alvarez. Now that Solorio is the clear-cut winner of that campaign, will Sanchez and Correa feel inclined to support him? Will they work together with him? Correa has been grooming Alvarez as his protege for years; Sanchez once employed de la Libertad. If memory serves correct, Correa and Sanchez have never been close. She did not support him against Jim Morrisey. Will Correa and Sanchez now set aside those old alliances and disagreements and embrace Solorio – and each other? I’m thinking not.
That means of course that the Republicans have some reason to hope – especially if they can lure Scharzenegger into a campaign stop or two in Anaheim or Santa Ana. I have also heard that Daucher’s handlers might be willing to help Williams to raise money in Sacramento. That would be a wise move. If Williams can mount a serious campaign, he will force the Democrats to spend money against him. That is money they won’t be able to spend against Daucher, or Nguyen for that matter.
Of course this is all moot if the Democrats make nice. With Alvarez out of the picture, they have at least purged themselves of the most vindictive and mean-spirited candidate in their midst.
Beware of Alvarez trying to switch parties now that she has been soundly thrashed in her aspirations for state office. My guess is that she will switch parties and register with the GOP and run against Solorio in 2008.
Sorry, despite speculative and naively hopeful posts to the contrary, Ryan Gene Williams will lose by a large margin (12+ points) in the general.
Look for Claudia to pull a switch hitter, using Lisa Bist and a lot of her big business and Chamber friends to support a switch to the GOP. That will be one defection I will personally be happy to see – if it happens. If it doesn’t, it will be because she has already been rejected by the GOP powers that be after she lost to Umberg in 2004. It would be a crack-up to see Claudia try to run for Mayor, but that will initially be Lisa Bist’s downfall. It will be interesting to see how the present “Mayoral Term Limits” amendment to the City Charter are going to turn out – Bist and Alvarez both are desperate as they both have no place to go now – Bist is even closer to oblivion. Rumor has it their shrillness and backstabbing will unlikely be tolerated any longer, thier power shriveling om the vine after Claudia’s resounding loss.
Now is going to be a test of May or Pulido’s true political acumen and power – he needs to take the knees out from Bist and Alvarez, then render a coup de grace to their futire political aspirations. He needs to break from Bist supported cronies and Alvarez supported cronies to fill the seats of Bist and Christy. I will be sorry to see Alberta Christy gone – while I did nott always agree with her positions, she had integrity and independence when it was sorely missing, in Bist and Alvarez particularly.
The Daucher-Correa race is far more interesting than the Solorio-Williams race, of course. While not a cinch, Correa is my prediction, by 4-6 points. Daucher’s pro-choice record (80% with Planned Parenthood) will alienate too many socially conservative votes GOP – it will be a death knell amongst most conservative Latino GOP voters.
As for Sanchez, She was obligated to support Armando, a former staffer, when he announced more than a year and one-third before the primary. Sanchez would never endorse Alvarez, the only other openly obvious candidate at the time of the endorsement. Also, Armando had clear roots in the party, so there was a no foul – especially as Loretta can do relatively little in such a race.
As for Correa, Art, he did NOT openly endorse Claudia Alvarez, and in fact was not even listed on Alvarez’s own website as endorsing Alvarez. Moreover, both Loretta and Correa (especially Correa) are political opportunists. They may (“may”) not be close, but if there is a benefit, they will not let that get in the way. However, it is a basically moot point, as Loretta CANNOT really do anything in conjunction with Lou, due to FPPC and McCain-Feingold constraints.
The thrashing of Alvarez was a watershed of sorts, as it removed a pollutant from the waters of the democratic political play in Orange County that has been contaminating relationships for too long.
Correa’s bigger problem is really going to be the fact that he ran a basically despicable campaign against Umberg – attack Umberg as you will for his affair, Umberg was a solid democratic vote, and has deep friendships amongst democrats. Correa, although successful, is really more of a “well, a republican in office would really suck, so the devil we know is better than the devil we don’t” -type vote for many 69th AD dems, especially the truly active. Correa’s campaign was grotesque, and he knows he burned a lot of bridges in the party when he did it. He is counting on “let’s let bygones be bygones” and “hey, I may not be your best representative as a democrat, but you have to admit I will be better than Daucher.
Daucher has to run on education and crime prevention to appeal to any potential cross-over voters. She is an industry whore to manufacturers (100% voting record for the California Manufacturers and Technology Association), choosing industrial polluters and self regulation (like that has EVER worked) over the environment.
Daucher has an abysmal environmental record: In 2005 she had a 20% Sierra Club California, and a 15% rating by the California League of Conservation Voters. In 2004, Daucher had an 11% rating by the California League of Conservation Voters and a 0 % rating by the Sierra Club California 0 percent in 2004.
In 2003 Daucher had a 5% voting record with the California League of Conservation Voters, and 11% with the Sierra Club.
In 2002 Daucher had a 0% record with the California League of Conservation Voters .
In 2001-2002 Daucher had a 31% record on votes that the California Park and Recreation Society considered to be the most important.
In 2001 Daucher had a 7% voting record with the California League of Conservation Voters.
Daucher’s Pro-Chamber voting record hovers between 92-100% year after year, but her voting for consumer advocacy groups is in single to low double digits.
Her rating on Family and Children’s Issues is also marginal, at 57% – opposed to 87% for Correa, as rated by the Children’s Advocacy Institute (Non-Profit, USD based). While she would get a failing grade at chi9ldren’s issues, she is given a “B” by the NRA!
Daucher also has a marginal rating on Senior issues (consistently below 50% across the board), which may be fine in a wealthy republican area such as Yorba Linda, but won’t play well in the 69th AD.
So, while the post is interesting hypothetically, Art, it doesn’t hold water under scrutiny.
8:06,
You are quite right about Alvarez. My own sources indicate the same conjecture. I don’t know that she will necessarily change parties, but I can almost guarantee that she won’t be helping Solorio in the general.
Correa may not have been overt about his support for Albarez, but we all know that she has been his protege for some time. I imagine that he is now trying to wash his hands of her – and who can blame him?
The point of my post is that the Dems are not united – and the Republicans just might end up working together. That is a complete turnaround from what happened back when Hurtt, Morrissey and Dornan all lost.
Lastly, I do try to keep things interesting here at the Orange Juice. After all, if we had no readers, we would be pointless. I may fail to be interesting at times, but it is not for lack of trying…
Art – I greatly enjoyed your post, and was not trying to “attack” your assessment. In fact, althouigh we are from different parties, and differ greatly on many issues, I respect your viewpoint and am truly enjoying your posts, which are thoughtful and demonstrate greart thought on the political landscape and issues.
And you are right – Claudia Alvarez is (in my words, but also I believe in your assessment) a boil on the buttocks of the democratic party, and quite frankly the Orange County political landscape. She is without any personal integrity, and is only out for personal gain. The political play should be to have Correa assist in taking her political legs out from beneath her – let’s see if that happens.
From good sources, Correa and Sanchez are on the same page. helping each other continue to control central OC. Did she endorse Correa? you bet she did. This is about control and now that they have it they will use it wisely to conitnue to control.
“She did not endorse Umberg last election and it didn’t hurt Umberg in the general. The reason she didnt is because Umberg endorsed her opponent in the City Council election that November. Had Umberg not done that she would have endorsed Umberg.”
This is ill-informed. Alvarez ran a grotesque race that was based on ethnic bias – while her english language signs and literature ran a “Save Our Schools” motto, her spanish language motto was “She’s One of Us”, which was linked to a nasty and divisive anti-“anglo” website and campagn in Latino areas. She also never conceded the race, and refused to extend a hand or show any willingness to patch up the extraordinarily bad feelings she engendered with so many.
Gotta agree with the rest, however, buit would add -Claudia is now roadkill.
Well said Bladerunner. Sorry to burst your bubble Art, but the Dems are uniting. If you were able to see the look on Correa’s face when he saw the results of the 69th AD coming in, it was evident he was going to be dumping Claudia as his “protoge.” He is done with her. Sources have informed me that all three Dem candidates are talking and are ready to unite. Solorio is well-liked by the Dem base, Correa has mended the fences with the Dem activists who are determined to keep the 34th SD Democratic and are driven by the fraud and underhanded efforts of Daucher’s benefactors, the New Majority.
Maybe in a few more years Art, but this year, the Dems are keeping Central OC and no college kid, former Dem or RINO Rep are going to stop us. What a week slate, this is a definite difference from the slate we really feared, Bustamante/Avila/Tran
Art. Your assessment is partly correct. If Umberg and Alvarez had won, the Dems would have been deeply fractured going into 2008. (Can you imagine Umberg and Alvarez at events?! Together?!) But Correa won. Solorio won. We will have a united party in central OC. Say what you want about Sanchez. She knows politics in OC better than anyone and knows what it takes to maintain her power. Armando wasn’t a mistake. She was loyal to her friend and former employee. In the end Solorio’s win didn’t hurt anyone but Alvarez (woo hoo!)
Anon. 4:55pm—
I’ve been called ill informed before and maybe I am. But I have it on pretty good authority that Claudia would have conceded the race and endorsed Umberg but Umberg left the state(you remember, to Gitmo and, oh yes, DC)and endorsed Claudia’s city council opponent, Lyn Verino before he left. This in part because Claudia had not done what the loser traditionaly does when they lose–you call the winner and congratulate them and if in a primary, you endorse them for the fall. Also because trial lawyers had been sniffing glue and thought they could take Claudia out in this council election(of course they put no money into this ill fated misadventure). Once this endorsement leaked out there was no way Claudia was going to endorse Umberg. I think Umberg felt he didn’t need the endorsement of Claudia that much because Otto Bade was going to be road kill regardless of what Claudia did.
Claudia’s campaign did have that raza focus and I’m glad I’m not the only one who remembers the despicable signs in Spanish. But that didn’t bother Umberg(hell, look at his reaction after the Correa scuds) nor did it prevent mutual endorsements. There were other factors at work. An interesting epilogue was that because of some pressure Robin Umberg left Verino twisting in the wind just before the election by saying Tom really didn’t endorse her. For that Tom got squat.
In the end, Claudia’s refusal only ended up hurting herself. Had she made the call right away to Umberg she would have most likely been the nominee. Fabian was so p.o.’d at her conduct that he didn’t back her this time. I don’t know who was advising her but they
either gave her TERRIBLE advice or she ignored them.
Bladerunner:
Well, you are well informed, but I think you are getting a bit of a spin – Alvarez had the opportunity to bury that hatchet long before Umberg departed for his Gitmo-related call-up to service. I personally do not believe that Umberg would ever have endorsed Alvarez in the City Council Race, frankly. There was indeed a power play that suppressed Verino’s endorsement, from what I hear, from local labor leaders that are now teetering in the edge of oblivion (for a whole lot of reasons, mostly deserved).
I think a lot of people from a lot of circles thought Alvarez was vulnerable, and would have liked to have seen her taken out – the right money would possibly have helped, but a field of three certainly doomed whatever hope the idealistic (and welcome in my opinion) effort had.
As for bad advice, I do not think Claudia was taking advice – if it was, it certainly was from an inept moron. I attribute her downfall more to a personality defect – she drank way to much funny Kool-Aid and started believing herself to be the chosen one – so she did not even attempt to conceal what a petty, narcissitic, person she is, or how totally disinterested she is in serving the public – its all about her, and now she will have much time to contemplate her belly button.
I’m still hopeful that Ryan will do fairly well, all things considered.
He’s shown that he’s not an idiot, gets along well with electeds and voters, and is setting himself up for a potential future run.
If Solorio wins, no big deal, but we’ll still have Ryan who I don’t expect will go away.
Once word really gets out about Jose Solorio’s MECHA days over at UCI and his mentor John Dombrink whose kooky ideas have tainted Jose Solorio’s thinking to a far left wing radical, voters will run away screaming.
Has Jose Solorio ever renounced
El Plan Espiritual de Aztl
Oh dear: here come the MECha mud bombs!
No, Jose has never renounced the Plan nor will he. He is a card carrying member of the anti-American Mechista movement. Heck, the time when Solorio works the hardest is each Spring when it’s time to dump yet another Communist Cesar Chavez event on the poor, illegal population that doesn’t know or care about Chavez did. There are actually more people in attendance working the booths than people who actually show up to hear Solorio’s anti-American idiots pontificate about La Raza!
Make no mistake about it; Jose Solorio is Red, White and Green to the core.
That is the most illogical stuff I ever heard. How can Jose ever be a Mexican supremacist. Two of his closest political advisors during the campaign were blond haired, blue eyed and were as American girl as they come. LAst time I checked Kimberly Ward and Courtney Peterson are not overly Chicano names.
And thanks for showing your true colors as to who is the bigots. Your language outs you all as the ones who hate. Don’t you all have some crosses to go and burn.
Kimberly Ward and Courtney Peterson have no idea who they are supporting.
“blond haired, blue eyed and were as American girl as they come”
Just what does that mean?
And who really cares because Jose Solorio is a card carrying MECHA member who was mentored by John Dombrink who co-wrote a paper titled
“And thanks for showing your true colors as to who is the bigots. Your language outs you all as the ones who hate. Don’t you all have some crosses to go and burn.”
This is the mind set of the people over at Jose Solorio for Assembly.
Out of the mouth the heart speaks.
Not only does Jose Solorio have MECHA roots, his campaign staff spew hatred by calling for cross burnings.
Anyone else know any other American girls who talk like that?
Luis, the public financing initiative you were interested in qualified today for the November ballot.
“public financing initiative qualified today for the November ballot.”
How long till the politicians sue?
Hey, I didn’t realize Jose was a pisano? We Italians proudly wear the red, white and green proudly.
Who is the gumba poster at 2:29 pm?
Lou and Loretta certainly aren’t close. They have different agendas, but they have been friends for quite some time and work together on many issues. The Democratic divide in recent years has been between the Dunn/Umberg camp and the Sanchez/Correa camp. It will be interesting to see where Solorio fits in. I don’t think either Loretta or Lou have strong feelings about him personally, but they seem to be taking a “wait and see” attitude.dg
Loretta respects people who work. If Jose works his district hard and respects her work, he’ll be just fine. Lou and loretta weren’t especially close but Lou gave Loretta respect and worked his district hard.
Bladerunner,
Yeah I noticed that. Great news. I hope we have the oppotunity to see some real change happen in the form of campaign finance. Thank you very much for the update!