GOP game plan for central OC
The other day I had a brief conversation with an OC GOP insider and he stumped me by asking a simple question, “how can the OC GOP win in central Orange County in the upcoming general?” Good question – and it deserves an answer.
The big campaign this fall will be that of our Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Usually the downstream campaigns will feed of a gubernatorial or presidential campaign. However, it is likely that Team Arnold will not be playing in central OC – so where does that leave the Republican candidates in that area?
I worked on Rob Hurtt’s last campaign for the 34th Senate District, when he lost to Joe Dunn. The latter is now on hiatus, and the party has recruited Lynn Daucher to try to retake the seat. You all know my misgivings about her, but she at least brings years of local and legislative political experience to the ticket. She is also acknowledged as an expert on education. I guess that is a starting point. However, the OC GOP’s highly publicized problems with their voter registration effort will not help them in the 34th. Daucher will have to overcome the ill will stemming from that mess while trying to get her message out.
Over in the 69th Assembly District, we have a college student, Ryan Gene Williams, who is from Texas and who has done a great job of enticing Democrats, during their divisive primary. Williams has no experience in politics, but he is street-smart and friendly, and it remains to be seen if the Democrats will unite behind their candidate, Jose Solorio. I don’t think that Claudia Alvarez’ fans are going to automatically back Solorio. Williams however has a huge voter gap to overcome, as the Democrat voters hold the edge in the 69th.
Lastly, Tan Nguyen has some experience as a candidate, but he ran two years ago as a Democrat. Oops! However, he showed us in the primary that he can entice voters. He did a good job of focusing on the hot-button GOP issue, immigration, and he capably courted the Vietnamese vote.
For Daucher, Nguyen and Williams to have any hope of prevailing, they simply must work together. Nguyen can promote the three campaigns to the Vietnamese community, Williams can court the younger voters, and Daucher brings gravitas to the ticket – assuming that conservative voters can overlook her overtly liberal positions on several keystone GOP issues, such as taxes, eminent domain and abortion.
I also think that Team Arnold should reconsider and go after voters in central OC. Schwarzenegger won a majority of the vote in Santa Ana, when he took out Gray Davis. He can do it again. Angelides is an unattractive candidate and he is plainly too liberal for the OC. His platform of raising taxes will fall on deaf ears in our county, even in the central areas. If the Governor helps out the other GOP candidates in central OC, all bets are off. He has his problems with conservative voters, but Latino voters in the area will support him more often than not. His relationship to the Kennedy family will in fact help him in enticing Latino support.
It is an uphill battle for the OC GOP in central county, but this is not Mission Impossible. It’s more like Mission Somewhat Unlikely. However, the party needs to reconcile with Tim Whitacre if at all possible, and that is not looking likely. I think that Scott Baugh, the OC GOP chairman, wants to bury the hatchet with Whitacre, but when Carona made the stupid move of going after Hunt and his supporters after the election, old wounds reopened. That is too bad. At this point I think we need a UN negotiator to intervene between Whitacre and the OC GOP. Perhaps Tom Fuentes is available? In years past he has always been able to bridge such gaps. Given his success in the primary with Nguyen, maybe he can craft a peace accord between Baugh and Whitacre. It’s worth a try.
“I don’t think that Claudia Alvarez’ fans are going to automatically back Solorio.”
Agreed.
Most voters in the 69th do not trust Solorio after he sold them out to Harrah, Crevier BMW and other developers and big money interest.
I have it on good faith that his staff pours over web blogs looking to attack anything that may make Solorio look bad.
“Most voters in the 69th do not trust Solorio after he sold them out to Harrah, Crevier BMW and other developers and big money interest.”
It sounds like Solorio may be making himself look bad. Oops.
You are right on target Art. If they make up with Tim Whitachre they can kiss thier chances for Daucher good bye. They should try to get Rosie on board also. She got her but kicked but Daucher needs to try to stich together all of those fringe groups as well.
I mean if they DON’T make up with Tim..
I know my union (SEIU) will not
endorse Solorio unless we get what we want in terms of PERS.
We showed up in force at the meeting last night to let him know we are serious.
Central O.C. has very low registration. Why would the Governor focus on a voter thin area? Not going to happen. Also, these voters are okay with taxing the rich. It ain’t them! I saw Hurtt’s mail. It was awful. Pictures of him lecturing mexicans on how to do their jobs. Also, can you explain why you think only a hard core conservative can get elected in Central O.C. Registration favors Dems. A hard core conserative hasn’t gotten elected in how many years from this area?
Art’s Mom.
“Also, can you explain why you think only a hard core conservative can get elected in Central O.C. Registration favors Dems.”
People are tired of the status quo.
Crooked elected officals in bed with developers.
The only thing keeping the dems alive anymore is the hope that they can fool people into believing that they will get something if they vote dem.
What is the dem game plan?
What are the dems plans for pensions?
what are the dems plans for the economy?
what are the dems plans for schools and parks and healthcare?
If we don’t get what we want, we will bail on the dems and vote rep.
Watch us.
I don’t think Claudia has many fans left. Most of the people who actually voted for her did so on name recognition. Those who are her ardent supporters are few with little influence, especially now. Armando has made nice with Jose, from what I hear he made a very gracious phone call to Solorio(Armando is truly a class act, it is why I voted for him). We Armando supporters are backing Jose, I think most of the Democratic base will. They do like him.
I wish Ryan Gene well, he is a good kid with a bright future. He kind of reminds me of a young John McCain, a maverick willing to buck the party establishment. But he is simply not going to win. Give him some years and I see a bright future for him.
Tan Nguyen … showed us in the primary that he can entice voters. He did a good job of focusing on the hot-button GOP issue, immigration, and he capably courted the Vietnamese vote.
Tan Nguyen won for 2 reasons:
1) a choice between two women and a man
2) a choice between two Latino names and one non-Latino name.
It’s as simple as that.
If he had been running in the Dem primary being non-Latino would have hurt him. However, in the GOP primary he benefitted from the anyone-but-a-Latino vote.
Loretta & Jose win big. Lou a favorite in a much closer race. Everything else is as much a fantasy as Michael Glover beating Chuck Devore & Steve Young beating John Campbell.
“Most voters in the 69th don’t trust Solorio.”
Maybe you can explain how it is that he decimated Claudia and Armando then?
The 69th Dem Primary was more of a vote against Claudia then it was a surefire Ra-Ra vote for Jose.
Granted Jose has his friends and is generally more electable than Claudia, but I’m sure Jose has his enemies.
Ryan has a very formidable opponent in Jose, but it’ll be interesting to see what Ryan pulls out against him and the unions.
It’ll fun. It’s gonna be like watching the World Cup.
Hey Brock, Jose vs Ryan WOULD be like the World Cup if the African nation of Chad had a team that was playing Brazil! And the only reason Chad Ryan is in the “World Cup” politically is that he ran without an opponant. You have been watching the movie “Rudy” too many times!
I don’t think Ryan Gene could get elected president at OCC where he goes to school. It’s called human canon fodder.
Hey Art, How about your opinion on Lupe leaving the GOP. Do you care? Might be a blogworthy article.
Lupe left the GOP because Jesus told her to do so.
Does anyone know what happened last night at Santa Ana council meeting on terms limits for the mayor? I assume Dems voted it down and GOP voted for it.
The Mayor and company voted to ensure he will always to maintain his power. Somebody run against Miguel puh-leeeze. He is completely useless!
Does that include Mr. Bustamante?
3:40,
Solorio must have learned from Hurtt – he spent quite a bit of money lecturing Hispanics on why they should read English…
As for the issue of electing Republicans, let’s face it – neither conservatives or moderates currently have a great chance in central OC. We just don’t have the votes.
Gila,
Perhaps, but I did okay as the only Latino running for the OC GOP in the 69th AD.
RE: Lupe, she left the GOP for pretty much the same reasons as Abie Garcia. Can’t say that I blame her. She had a nice run and did a lot for the party, and in return everyone in the machine endorsed her liberal opponent. She won’t miss these false friends…
“I don’t think Ryan Gene could get elected president at OCC where he goes to school. It’s called human canon fodder.”
You just don’t know Ryan Gene.
Perhaps, but I did okay as the only Latino running for the OC GOP in the 69th AD.
Quite true! Do you have any idea why? I think the whole issue of how people decide how to vote for Central Committee members is very interesting. It’s almost certainly the least publicized race on the ballot and the people running are the least known.
Art you have some name I.D. from being active in the community and that got you some votes. Also, this sounds funny but I think the name “Art” does not sound quite as ethnic as say Pedro Pedroza or Jose Pedroza or Juan Pedroza. Interesting to try to guess but who knows why people vote the way they do? (as an aside…I think the De La Libertad name sounded wierd to Spanish speakers …kind of hippyish and really odd to non-spanish speakers)
Isn’t James Vanderbilt half Latino? I remember he dug up his mother’s maiden name and hyphenated it when he ran for the Anaheim City School Board in 2004 going by James Vanderbilt-Linares. Then he drops Linares when he runs for the GOP Central Committee, knowing there are a bunch of voters there who hate Mexicans. Another jerk willing to use his “Latino” roots when it is convenient.
Now that Lupe is a free agent she will feel free to speak her mind!:)
Brock in Anaheim-
Glad to see you’re active and posting again, cutie.
It was great to finally meet you!
Anon 11:02,
Thanks. I’m sure I know who it is, and it was great meeting you too!
Give me a call sometime and we can chill with Ryan whenever he gets back from Sacramento.
I’m sure he’s going to come back with some great stories and hopefully some checks! 🙂
may be we need a john schmidt to shake things up a bit. Of course since John died a while back, maybe his famous daughter could toss her hat into the ring. She could be the education canidate.
Royal Johnson says…
Angry mob republican tactics will never work in central Orange County. This is a progressive area so nazi’s need not apply.
I’m sorry everybody. Art is talking crazy again. Back back inside Mijo.
“This is a progressive area so nazi’s need not apply.”
Yes,
We do see how advanced, cultured and civilized your type can be.
So while your tossing out wild accusations and sipping your chai tea on the light rail, maybe you could “progress” into a state of kindness toward your fellow man.