Vietnamese voters a key factor in Orange County
I have been taken to task of late for poking fun at the Tan Nguyen campaign for the 47th Congressional District. So of course the OC Register today published an article alleging that Vietnamese voters were the deciding factor in vaulting Tom Harman over the OC GOP machine-backed candidate, Diane Harkey. Apparently the MoHarkey’s dissected the vote and concluded that Harman benefited from his candidate statement, which was published in a slew of languages, including Vietnamese. Harkey, on the other hand, did not agree to campaign expenditure limits, and as such she did not have a candidate statement, in the voter pamphlet that was mailed to all voters in the 35th Senate District, by the OC Voter Registrar.
The first thought that struck me, as I read the article, was that we might see this happen again in the 34th Senate District, where RINO Lynn Daucher, like Harkey, opted out of the right to have a candidate statement. Instead she is going to try to win by outspending her conservative opponent, Lupe Moreno. Could this backfire for Daucher the way it did for Harkey? I think so. There are a lot of Vietnamese voters in the 34th, and quite a few Latino voters too. While the latter may or may not opt for Moreno, who has a Hispanic surname, but is also known for her stance against illegal immigration, the Vietnamese voters might well be attracted to Moreno’s message. The aforementioned Nguyen, like Moreno, is centering his campaign against Rosie Avila, on the immigration issue.
The Registrar pamphlets, by the way, are sent via U.S. mail, to every voter. Nothing else comes close to that kind of distribution. As such the candidate statement is a fantastic deal for the candidates. Daucher won’t have one, and she cannot undo that decision. My guess is that her handlers are now sweating it, given what just happened to Harkey.
To read Moreno’s candidate statement, go to http://www.oc.ca.gov/ELECTION/candidate/pri2006/1222-1.pdf. To read about Harman’s support in the Vietnamese community, go to http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1123520.php.
While Harman’s candidate statement may have helped him there are numerous factors that probably could have made the difference for Harkey. Even though every registered voter in the district will receive the candidate statements the problem is that many voters will already have negative impressions of Moreno before they ever read her statement. Unfortunately for Moreno the lack of a candidate statement hasn’t seem to hurt candidates that have sufficent cash to run a good campaign.
12:16,
If as many voters as you indicate know who Moreno is, she will win the primary going away. You’re talking about immense name ID – and Daucher has virtually none in the 34th Senate District.
And you are wrong – the lack of a candidate statement apparently doomed Harkey – although she spent plenty of money on her campaign. Here’s hoping that will happen to Daucher too!
But Harman had money that Moreno won’t be able to touch. She’ll be lucky if she gets 3% of the money Harman made. Besides, lets not lose sight that Harman was an elected official, with a lot of IE, and everything else!
wishfull thinking, but not happening. Daucher wins