Are Democrats gravitating to Ralph Martin for O.C. Sheriff?

Claudio Gallego’s recent endorsement of Commander Ralph Martin for O.C. Sheriff did not overly surprise me, but it has presented a few questions that deserve to be pondered. Are county Democrats beginning to gravitate to Martin? Will any other prominent Democrats join Gallegos in publicly announcing their choice for the office of O.C. Sheriff? How will this affect the leading contenders in that race, incumbent Mike Carona and Lt. Bill Hunt?

Martin hired a Democrat consultant, who in all fairness has worked for both sides. His name escapes me at the moment, but I know that he helped Loretta Sanchez to get elected, and in L.A. he has helped a slew of GOP candidates, including L.A. District Attorney Steve Cooley. Martin also comes from a family of Democrats, and as a L.A. Republican he is far more likely to be a moderate and to get along with Democrats.

Sources in the Democrat camp tell me that they have concerns about Hunt because of his affiliation with Tim Whitacre. They like Whitacre, but don’t like some of the other candidates he is advising, notably Rosie Avila and Lupe Moreno. They seem to be concerned about replacing a Carona administration that has been overtly controlled by GOP partisans, with a Hunt administration that might replace one set of GOP hacks with another.

Those are valid concerns, but I don’t see Hunt repeating Carona’s mistakes. Most likely he will come up with brand new ones. As Congressman Dana Rohrabacher pointed out at the last OC GOP Central Committee meeting, no one is perfect. However, Hunt is not surrounding himself with the likes of Jon Fleischman and Michael Schroeder. Credit him for that at least.

Carona is also making immigration, or rather opposition to illegal immigration, a central part of his reelection campaign, as voiced by Rohrabacher, again at the last OC GOP Central Committee. That could backfire with county Democrats. We must remember that the June election may not produce an outright winner. If Carona fails to get over 50% of the vote, he will have to face off with the number two vote-getter in a runoff election. Democrat voters may well be the deciding factor in June.

Frankly, I think that the Caronistas might have made a strategic error in focusing only on Hunt. Martin has more experience than either of them, and if indeed he is able to coalesce the support of the county Democrat leaders, he will be a force to contend with, especially if he is able to, at the same time, engender support from moderate Republican voters. Why the latter would support Carona is a mystery – I suspect that they would in fact be open to voting for Martin, if he were able to get the word out about his campaign.

Hunt has also been working the Democrat voters, but he will have to redouble his efforts now. If we assume that Carona and Hunt split the GOP vote, a Martin who is backed by a unified Democrat contingent could in fact become the runner-up in the June election. You have to figure that a Martin v. Carona runoff would be quite a battle, and at that point many Republicans may well jump off the Carona bandwagon and go with the better man.

I thought I had this race figured out – but now it’s anybody’s guess what will happen between now and the June election. One thing for sure, Martin will need his Democrat allies to step up publicly and endorse him, and to help fund his effort as well, or he has no chance whatsoever of making it to the runoff. His message that the office of the Sheriff should not be partisan is a strong one – but he needs to get it out in order for it to put him over the top.

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"Admin" is just editors Vern Nelson, Greg Diamond, or Ryan Cantor sharing something that they mostly didn't write themselves, but think you should see. Before December 2010, "Admin" may have been former blog owner Art Pedroza.