Correa trouncing Umberg in new poll
Kudos to Adam probolsky and Jubal at OC Blog for breaking the news that Assemblyman Tom Umberg is losing to Supervisor Lou Correa in their race for the 34th State Senate District, according to a new poll conducted by J. Moore Methods, Inc., a Democrat pollster, as reported in the Calpeek newsletter.
My readers know that I have been predicting an Umberg loss since Correa jumped into the contest. I don’t think that Umberg will lose by this large a margin, but I do think he is toast.
In related news, conservative Republican Lupe Moreno has launced her new campaign website, at www.lupemorenoforcasenate.com. Please take a moment and have a look. She is the only conservative candidate vying for the 34th State Senate District. She is already getting numerous media requests, and campaign volunteers and contributions are heating up.
Mr. pedroza-You got so excited you posted twice on this story.
To be accurate you should update your post to include Adam’s update which points out this poll was done LAST SUMMER just days after Umberg’s affair was front page news in the Register. The source(probably someone from Umberg’s campaign) also cited subsequent polling(no doubt Umberg’s poll)showing Umberg beating Correa by almost 2-1.
Art,
The website does not have any information at all. None of the links seem to work…is this in its very beginning stages or is there an error somewhere.
I also took you for a very decent republican, one whom would not stick with a one issue candidate, yet I see the candidate has written on the home page a pretty lenghty paragraph(s) on immigration and very small tidbits on other issues. Are you sure you are interested in tainting your reputation on this candidate? It is one thing to stick to your principles and not assist Daucher or a Democrat, but to join a campaign predominantly known for their anti-immigration is another. Lets be the voice of reason not of hatred. C’mon Art.
Luis,
We should have the links fixed tonight. Moreno’s campaign is running on a volunteers only basis right now, and the webmaster is likewise a volunteer.
As for the issues, I hear where you are coming from. But were you not a major supporter of Nativo Lopez? I would submit that he and Lupe sit on opposite sides of the poltiical spectrum, but they are both polarizing in their own ways.
My own political views are more nuanced than Moreno’s, but she is more acceptable to me than Daucher. The latter is essentially a Democrat running for office as a Republican. The only reason she ever got elected to represent the GOP was the open primary.
For the record, I support legal immigration, but I do feel that our country and our state in particular has been stuck with the bill for the upkeep of illegals by their countries of origin.
We should not be paying for Mexico’s lack of ability to maintain a decent economy, for example. That is their problem. Now if we want to help them build their economy, that’s great – but they need to back away from socialism if they ever want to emulate our economy.
Lemon Drop,
Take a deep breath. Calmer now? Tim and I are serving as unpaid consultants to Lupe. I recruited Ryan to help out so he could make a little money, given that the party has not seen fit to fund his campaign. That’s it amigo – no conspiracy here.
Unlike other local blogs, that are staffed by paid consultants, the Juice is a free forum and I make no money from politics. I am helping Lupe because I am supportive of her campaign and I don’t want to see Daucher win the 34th.
Art,
You are correct. I did not support the recall of Nativo Lopez, and to this day believe it was an extremelly bad idea which wasted a lot of money and served no purpose. I would, however, not state, I am a major supporter for that would, at least to me, insinuate a align myself directly to his views and theories.
I find people like Nativo, important to counter balance the activities brought upon by people like Lupe Moreno, Jim Gilchrist, etc…but I guess you can say the something back to me.
In any event, I would gladly send both of those types(Nativo and the Moreno’s) of people away forever so that many level headed folks can live in peace.
As per your issue with immigration. I respect your view and understand what you are saying, but I would suggest you look at the average time it take a Mexican citizen to acquire residency the “legal” way. We first need to take a look at the cause rather than the effect. Lets fix the immigration system, then we can deal with entry without the proper documentation.
I would love to elaborate what I mean offline with you so you understand the issue is very bad and not easy to fix.
Art,
My BP is fine, but thanks for the genuine concern.
The website gives the appearance that Minutewoman Moreno has a professional staff in place with two political consultants and a fundraiser listed on her homepage.
Thanks for clarifying she has no money nor inclination to devote the time necessary to win the primary.
And why hasn’t the GOP seen fit to fund her campaign?
Hmmm …could it be the same reason Fuentes refuses to endores Avila?
Incompetent.
It is obvious this is Dick Ackerman or one of his staffers trying to shoot down poor Lupe. They are obviously afraid of her and are trying to shut down her campaign one week before filing.
Do not listen to the nay sayers Lupe. You are the true GOP candidate in the 34th SD. And if you lose it is because of illegal immigrants, since they have been fixing elections since 1996. I guess they want to run our politics like their government runs theirs.
Under Endorsement you immediately go to the Toastmaster’s site. Is one to persume that Ms. Moreno is endorsed by Toastmaster’s.
HELLO ART! It’s been 8 hours since I posted that contrary to your blog, this is not a new poll but a 9 month old poll. Both Adam & Jubal have made the update that it was an old poll. I’m wondering where you got the idea it was a new poll because I didn’t see that anywhere?
How about a correction or at least a qualifying comment thats its an old poll done for Perata and that Umberg(I assume) has a poll showing he beats Correa 2-1?
Lupe, Lupe, Lupe. She’s our candidate!
Finally a Republican that’s willing to take on the illegal immigration problems plaguing our cities. Praise the Lord!
I’ve heard that Lupe’s first line of defense in attacking the immigration problem is to put an INS agent in every school in Orange County. A little parajito tells me that Rosie Avila and Bill Hunt support her in this take charge plan. Amen.
It’s about time.
Round up all the illegal immigrants and sent them home!
Vote Moreno, Hunt and Avila.
My bad Bladerunner. I thought it was a new poll. Nevertheless, I don’t see Umberg winning against Correa. If you want to bet on Umberg, go ahead. It’s your money, but you will lose…
Bladerunner –
Art’s artful dodge of posting old polling information is a preview of
what to expect when he starts
puffing up Minutewoman Moreno’s
standings in the polls.
OJ is headed towards a mouthpiece
for the campaign of Moreno.
Que lastima.
Midnight Prowler,
I appreciate you posting on this blog. I was leaning on voting for Hunt, especially from the conversations I have had with Mr. Whitacre, but you have now enlightened me to the point where I will be voting for all democrats, and probably Mr. Martin for Sheriff. Thank you so much.
Art— you may or may not be right about Correa beating Umberg(it would be nice to see an unbiased poll but don’t count on that happening), all I was saying is you should have acknowledged that it was an old poll and a newer one had the results flipped. Anyway, you acknowledged this so its done.
The leaking of biased campaign polls is an old technique to garner support and get folks to bail on their candidates who are losing. So many people want to go with the winner(not you Art, you’ll stand by your man(or woman in the case of Lupe). OC Blog has the results of Claudia’s poll which has her way up—I suspect she’s up but not by that much. Campaign polls should be viewed with a great deal of suspicion.
luis rodriquez –
The political season is young; stay tuned.
There is also a poll on the 69th AD that has the results much closer. The results are:
Alvarez 23%
Solorio 19%
de la Libertad- 18%
It is my understanding that the one being pumped by OC Blog was a push poll by Claudia, which asked the question “Would you vote for a candidate who helps put criminals behind bars or a candidate who is a government bureaucrat who wastes taxpayers money and a candidate who works for a banking company who swindles money from minorities. Gee who would you vote for?
Luis –
Is there any reason for the Reps
to go to the polls this Nov? Here’s the 3 top reasons why not:
1.) Iraq
2.) Katrina
3.) Port issue
Endorsement of Bush II is political suicide.
Artie-
Why are you so lathered about Minutewoman Moreno for the 34th? She’s demonstrated 2x that she is not electable. The woman has lost 2x running for SAUSD school board. That’s lame Artie.
Moreno can’t even win a stupid school board election.
Lemon Drop,
If Moreno cannot win, then why are YOU so lathered up? Let’s face it, despite everything she has a chance. Ackerman has already called her twice – so even he is worried. You should be too…
Artie –
Instead of welcoming this golden opportunity to promote your client you collapse like a rag doll by spitting back …”then WHY are you so lathered up?”
I am not Minutewoman Moreno’s campaign consultant/advisor/mentor. YOU ARE!
In your reality world do you believe I am the lone voice echoing concern about Moreno’s electibility? The big boys at CRP certainly are and aren’t they the ones that control the purse strings?
Today’s question: will Lupe and/or her political consultant/s hammer out a backroom deal by Friday’s filing date?
Our gal Lupe Moreno is planning an anti-immigraiton rally this Saturday in front of the Mexican consulate in Santa Ana.
It’s about time the citizens take to the streets about this issue.
Lupe says she wants to embarass the Mexican government for circumventing our laws.
Let’s join Lupe as she takes to the streets protesting illegal immigration.
This if F#*@^’n good news!
Power to the people!
I’m convinced the world is coming to an end.
INS agents in public schools? That’s not legal. Public schools are barred from EVER asking that question.
Is Ms. Avila is really going to endorse this?
Or is this just fear-based, whip the masses into a frenzy campaign style.
elfaba
nay, the world isn’t coming to end, it’s just the beginning of the political season.
INS agents in public schools is illegal? oops… somebody should tell lupe. rosie’s endorsement of lupe as a candidate for the 34th confirms she’s in agreement with lupe’s plan to install INS agents in the schools.
‘ya never know what to expect from these two loons.
lupe’s political advisors must be real busy getting ready for her kick off campaign this saturday. isn’t it clever of them to get out the gate with an anti-illegal immigration demonstration in front of the mexican consulate?
celebrate america.
me? i’m gonna hang out at proof.
meow.