Update on the 47th Congressional District campaigns
Adam Probolsky, the noted pollster and GOP consultant, has written his thoughts about the race for the 47th Congressional District, over in the Flash Report. Probolsky acknowledges the fact that the district has begun to swing back in favor of the Republicans. However, of the two GOP candidates who are running, he thinks that Rosie Avila won’t be able to raise money, and the other candidate, Tan Nguyen, has too little experience and is wasting his money without real poltical advice.
Probolsky does not note the fact that former O.C. GOP Chairman Tom Fuentes took $10,000 of Nguyen’s money, in return for serving as his “senior advisor.” I hope Fuentes did not design or approve Nguyen’s mailers, which are truly atrocious. Lord knows who he is sending them to.
If Nguyen had hired a real consultant, he might have had a shot, but now he has blown through his money. He is in debt and Rosie is starting to raise money in earnest. Her biggest problem won’t be money, but rather being careful as to what she says on the campaign warpath. She has a tendency to say what is on her mind, and that is not always helpful. (I of course love to do the same, but then I am not running for anything…).
Currently Avila is embroiled in a mess of her own making, regarding an editorial she wrote, that was subsequently published in the O.C. Register. In the column she claimed that the Santa Ana Unified School District was distributing awful books that were essentially anti-American. The rub was that the books were allegedly coming from the government of Mexico, via a donation.
However, my colleage here at the Orange Juice, Claudio Gallegos, wrote a scathing rebuttal that turned up a number of purported fallacies in the Avila editorial. She may yet get past this mess, but it is really cranking up supporters of the incumbent in the 47th, the notorious Loretta Sanchez. Many of my Democrat friends acknowledge that Sanchez has accomplished nothing in Congress, but most of them cannot abide Avila, and this latest misstep with the editorial in question is now enflaming them to support Sanchez even more.
All that aside, I also heard today from a published author who is an authority on defense. He might be joining the fray as a third party candidate. I won’t reveal his name yet, until I have his blessing to do so, but this certainly could complicate matters for the GOP. Baugh needs to pull Nguyen aside, get him out of the race, and solidify the party behind Avila. She is our best hope now, bumps and all, and we cannot waste our time bickering in the primary. Avila will need to be focused and well-funded if indeed she has any hope of prevailing in the general.
If Nguyen really wants to run for something, let him run for the 69th Assembly District. I’m sure that the current GOP candidate, Ryan Gene Williams, will give him a run for the money. We’ll let the voters figure out which way to go on that one. I know I will continue to back Williams.
In related news, over at OC Blog, Jubal is pushing Lupe Moreno to run for the 47th instead of the 34th Senate District. Not good! We don’t need to give Sanchez even more material to run on. If Moreno enters that race, expect Sanchez to bring up 187 again. That won’t help us in the 47th.
You can read Probolsky’s column at http://www.flashreport.org/blog0a.php?postID=2006022403385036&post_offsetP=0&authID=2005091915452225.
Ms. Diva,
Thanks for your feedback. I understand your frustration, but is Tan Nguyen a better option? The guy was running for Congress as a Democrat as recently as 2004.
We are running out of time to recruit anyone else. If we want to get rid of Loretta, we need to get to work on this now. Rosie may not be perfect, but she is out there running and raising money.
No matter what, I rather have her in office than Loretta. Honestly, I rather have anyone office than Loretta…
That was me, not Jubal — we are too different people.
And now that this new info on Avila is coming out, that’s even more reason to support someone other than her (and Nguyen).
Maybe Fuentes should run??
Lurk
ocblog@gmail.com
Art-
I will not blindly throw my support behind a woman who is not stable. I will wait to see who
your published writer wanna-be candidate is.
It’s somewhat admirable of you to stand by Rosie, but she’s gone too far this time. This is not her first gaffaw. She has many in her political closet. It’s time she took up a hobby and sit back and enjoy life.
What you need to understand is that Rosie’s recent action bears out that she set out to be intentionally inflammatory. Tim should have reigned her in; he did not. Instead it appears he’s deserted Rosie and is content to let her flap in the wind. So much for integrity.
Sorry Lurk! Interesting idea re Fuentes. I don’t think it would work out though. He doesn’t live in the district, and although he is Hispanic, I don’t think he speaks Spanish. That is no prerequisite, but it doesn’t hurt. Also, he is somewhat of a polarizing figure, to say the least. On the plus side, he has huge name ID, he can raise money and he is Catholic.
I really don’t know what other options we have. I remain convinced that Rosie can weather this storm, but if indeed Claudio’s allegations are true, she needs to write a follow-up editorial to set the record straight. She is an honest person, and I think she would do that as a matter of rote.
Finally, I plan to meet with the fellow who is thinking of running. We’ll see where that goes. It may go nowhere…
Art,
You forget the huge negative regarding Fuentes, yes he is Catholic but remember the trouble that got him into. His “advising” of the Bishop into transferring pedophile priests. If he were my opponent, I would send out a mailer attacking that in a heartbeat. Thats a negative no one could recover from.
How did a Adam Probolsky become a pollster. Did he get his license from a cracker jack box? Oh, what was his degree in? Oh, he doesnt have one?
People are worried Rosie is doomed cuz of lies by devil spokeman Claudio. He lies, all his words are lies. LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES! He is in gang who are trying to bring textbooks into Santa Ana that teach kids to have sex, take showers together, become homosexual and have abortions. Rosie is exposing the truth and ti will set you all free.
I continue to be amazed by comments like lg for Christ. Do you really think that any law in the land would allow the topics he described to be taught in a public school? Come on lg, a little less emotion and more facts would be useful. Prove your statement please. Or were your statements merely another attempt to cause fear in the community?
Luis Galdamez aka lg4christ –
Claudio did not write the Mexican Meddling article, he merely informed OJ bloggers about the inconsistencies with the article
Rosie wrote.
I suggest you reread Ms. Avila’s article. No where in the article is there any mention that Claudio is bringing textbooks into the classrooms. She reserves that accusation for the Mexican Consulate.
You are a one man band spewing false information about SAUSD teachers claiming they are teaching students to shower together, encourage homosexual lifestyles and advocate for abortions.
These are the LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES.
As this story unfolds it’s becoming clear that Miss Avila cannot discern truth from fiction and I’m beginning to believe she emigrated from Fantasyland, not Guatamela.
If Rosie’s aspirations for defeating Loretta are squashed, it’s her own doing.
As a life-long Republican I will not support anyone who cannot take responsibily for their actions. This is not the first time she has been embroiled in controversy, but it’s been limited to Santa Ana. What makes this different is her decision to seek the 47th CD seat.
That makes it my business. Rosie is not the candidate to unseat Loretta. Rosie is a liability.
It’s about winning. It’s not about the crap you’re peddling.
Cloaking yourself in the mantle of Jesus and making false and venomous statements is not the way of Jesus. And I don’t need Rosie telling me that God is mad at me because I disagree with her POV.
Rosie’s brand of truth cannot withstand scrunity because it’s made of sand and it’s washing away with the tide.
I noticed you slithered away from the Mexican Meddling Rosie thread when you were outted.
Maybe probolski should run. then everyone can see what qualifications he has in proclaiming himself a “pollster”. Art, what’s your take on the port deal?
Art — the idea surfaced from a commenter on OC Blog this a.m. that Janet Nguyen might forgot the AD and go up against Loretta — that wasn’t the worst idea I’d heard today.
Lurk
Lurk,
Janet Nguyen would be a formidable candidate in the 47th. I am guessing that Righeimer would “ower” her for pulling out of the race for the 68th. That means he would have to help her in the 47th. Very interesting…
Anonymous,
The port deal? I think that Bush should have worked with Congress instead of going around them. I also am nervous about working with the UAE, even though they are our allies. Their people do not like us, although their leaders do. That is a problem.
Art,
Why don’t you ask your buddy Maddox to run. He got more votes in Sanchez’s district than Sanchez. Or you could always run.
Art,
Port deal looks like a bad one. Maybe there should be newspaper headlines reading ” We are all French”
anon –
Or the headline could read “We’re all French Fried.”
Tibor R. Machan, Chapman University
UAE has a long record in helping us with national security. Who sold George Washington his oars? UAE.Temales at the Alamo? UAE. Shovels for the trenchs in WW1? UAE.Port security at Pearl Harbor? Well, UAE but you can’t blame them because Roosevelt wanted that to happen. Bottom line…what are we thinking.