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The Westminster Recall Special Election is essentially done. While the next batch of results will come in Monday the results are already clear: all three incumbents were retained with more than 57%, but less than 60%, of the vote. My analysis of the vote results will appear after the “What’s Left to Count?” feature and the results in the retention and replacement elections below.
Of the 17,166 ballots cast, only 1,317 were not tallied by Election Day, so this was overwhelmingly a vote-by-mail election in fact if not by law.
What’s Left to Count?
I have to admit that I’ve forgotten my cute nicknames for the different categories, so I’ll just post these verbatim:
Total Ballots Left to Count
Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.
*The number of ballots left to count can increase after election day, due California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 1,317Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 1,171
Total Estimated Left to Count: 146
Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count
Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 288
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 280
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 8
Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 413
Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 404
Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 9
Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 32
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 7
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 25
Duplicated Ballot Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 0
Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 0
Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 0
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 551
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 455
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 96
Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 33
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 25
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 8
UNOFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| NO | 10,141 | 59.32% |
| YES | 6,955 | 40.68% |
Contest: Candidates to succeed Tri Ta if he is recalled, for the duration of his term., VOTE FOR 1
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| DO | 4,910 | 57.99% |
| OCHOA | 2,949 | 34.83% |
| VU | 608 | 7.18% |
[2] KIMBERLY HO SEAT
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 9,765 | 57.32% | |
| 7,270 | 42.68% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| MANZO | 3,258 | 37.15% |
| LAWRENCE | 2,166 | 24.70% |
| TRAN | 1,153 | 13.15% |
| DO | 1,014 | 11.56% |
| BAO ANH NGUYEN | 737 | 8.40% |
| DAO | 442 | 5.04% |
[3] CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN SEAT
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 9,824 | 57.68% | |
| S | 7,208 | 42.32% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| POWER | 7,473 | 86.17% |
| TRAN | 1,199 | 13.83% |
ANALYSIS
First, I’d say that any recall that gets above 40% of the vote was worth doing, because once you’re up that high you’re within range of catching some lucky breaks. So congratulations to Westminster United for the credible effort. (The incumbents are due their congratulations as well, but it doesn’t have to come from us.)
Which incumbent performed best?
Here were the raw vote totals and percentages for the incumbents (meaning votes against the recall of each) from best to least:
Tri Ta: 10,141 — 59.32%
Chi Charlie Nguyen: 9,824 — 57.68%
Kimberly Ho: 9,765 — 57.32%
How many votes for a challenger were in each race?
Of the 17,096 voters voting on whether to recall Tri Ta, 8,467 voters chose a replacement. If we presume that all of the 6,955 voting to recall Ta chose a replacement, then only 1,512 of the 10,141 voters who voted to retain Ta — 14.9% — chose a replacement.
Of the 17,032 voters voting on whether to recall Chi Charlie Nguyen, 8,672 chose a replacement. If we presume that all of the 7,208 voting to recall Nguyen chose a replacement, then only 1,464 of the 9,824 voters who voted to retain Nguyen — 14.9% — chose a replacement.
Of the 17,035 voters voting on whether to recall Kimberly Ho, 8,770 chose a replacement. If we presume that all of the 7,270 voting to recall Ho chose a replacement, then only 1,500 of the 9,824 voters who voted to retain Ho — 15.3% — chose a replacement.
Which challengers performed best?
While the meaning of these results is undercut by differences in the number of candidates in each race, we can still get some sense of how popular each replacement candidate was with voters.
| Candidate Name | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| JAMISON POWER | 7,473 | |
| DO | 4,910 | |
| MANZO | 3,258 | |
| OCHOA | 2,949 | |
| LAWRENCE | 2,166 | |
| TRAN | 1,199 | |
| TRAN | 1,153 | |
| DO | 1,014 | |
| B. ANH NGUYEN | 737 | |
| VU | 608 | |
| KHAI DAO | 442 |
One lesson here seems to be that Vietnamese candidates (other than non-recalled incumbent Tai Do) were not getting even conditional support from voters. Another lesson is that, among non-Vietnamese candidates, only Jamison Power has any sort of chance of breaking into the council lineup anytime soon.
Westminster United’s efforts came reasonably close — a switch of about 1,250 voters would have recalled each Council candidate except the Mayor — and that suggests that a general election win or two might be possible. But in a recall, the incumbent faction in their city still has a strong grip on power.
Westminster is still stuck with these two. And that other weenie.
I’m curious, why do you think this recall failed ? The Westminster City Council had been squabbling like babies for many meetings I would have been certain at least one or 2 of them would have been pushed out. Also the other Vietnamese candidates didn’t do that good which is also surprising b/c the community in Westminster is largely Vietnamese.
Money.
Takes a lot of money to get people to pay attention to local issues. It’s not hard for a recall opponent to motivate their base to show up to cast a ballot. It’s quite difficult, particularly in the era of social distancing, for a grass root organization to motivate enough people to show up in an off cycle election without a clear-bell single issue (raising taxes, obvious public abuse, or scandal.)
This is the same reason a recall in Anaheim will fail. Without a half million dollars and direct support from DPOC, it has no chance against the $1MM Sidhu’s interests will happily deploy.
Don’t want that to look like a downer, but that’s how I view it. Westminster is toxic, and that’s circulated widely within the public employee community. If a recall can’t succeed organically there, you’ve really only got money to blame.
I know the folks who put on the recall, and I’ll talk to them soon to find out what they think went wrong. I’m not so sure it was simply money – the recall team had the backing of an eccentric Viet billionaire from LA. On the other hand, he insisted on funding the recall HIS way, which turned out to be hiring the habitually lying consultant Gilliard, as well as a bunch of paid canvassers who were not sufficiently familiar with local issues.
Did Coronavirus somehow work to aid the “safe” familiar side of a question?
And the fact that in two of the three replacement races the white & Latino guys totally prevailed makes me wonder if a lot of Viets saw the recall as a race thing?
Let us know what you find out. I bet it’s an interesting take.
“Westminster is toxic, and that’s circulated widely within the public employee community.”
No doubt lots of actual public employees hate the Wm council, but I’m pretty sure the public employee unions either sat out the recall or helped the incumbents. (I’ll find out.)
It’s often a challenge to keep up with the fault lines in Little Saigon, but in last month’s Assembly race the OCEA fervently backed Tyler Diep (who’s become a pretend-conservative union tool in recent years) over Janet Nguyen (who, ironically, the OCEA used to love ten years ago.) And the three councilmembers who were targeted for recall are all allies/puppets of Tyler (as well as behind-the-scenes former Assemblyman Van Tran and embattled supervisor / Janet turncoat Andrew Do.)
That’s why I really doubt the OCEA, at least, even considered helping the recall. But I’ll find out.
They’re not going to take a side for obvious reasons.
No employee wants or deserves that.
Looking at the results of who did best and worst among challengers. it looks to me (from my outside vantage) that the Viet community just flat-out put the hammer down on permitted dissent.
If we’re still in the Jannie-Trannie world (or maybe it’s now Jannie-Tylerie) within the Viet community, both sides had reason to stand down in this recall. Andrew Do needs Viet votes to hold off Sergio Contreras, so he’s not likely to antagonize Jannies.
Janet doesn’t want to antagonize people before she goes up against Diedre Nguyen, who as far as I can tell is the long-awaited new-generational non-factional reformer. (In Game of Thrones terms, the “Azor Ahai.”)
So, except where they could vote for a Mayoral incumbent “just in case,” it looks like they were told (by both sides?) not even to vote for a Viet successor in any race, lest they be given incentive to oust an incumbent (and then await payback in November.)
Money was probably some issue, as was the reduced ability to canvas due to Covid-19 — but those results on the challengers were stark as hell. That drop-off in votes was supposed to send a message — and I’ll bet it did.
Re. Andrew Do, he spoke out angrily against the recall side. Don’t you remember him calling the proponents “Horse-Faced Buffalo Heads?”
http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2020/04/badly-google-translated-vietnamese-westminster-recall-posts/
Oh, I thought that that quote was from Biden.
Well, if he was against the recall of Trannies, that makes sense.
i can understand money being an issue, however, the guy who backed the recall effort spent quite a bit to get it on the ballot which he did. After that if he quit then it would seem that he would have given up right before the last mile of a marathon, and he wasn’t hurting for cash so I’m not quite sure it was just money.
Also with Tyler Diep and Bill Brough, that was a combination of money and the OCGOP actively working against both of them.
The recall didn’t have so much blatant partisanship going on, maybe it was a combination of mail in ballots only, and just people not really paying attention as well.