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After every significant election, the OC Registrar of Voters keeps track of “What’s Left to Count?” These reports break down ballots into different types and indicate how many have been counted (which in some categories is an estimate) and how many have not.

To the best of my knowledge, they don’t keep an archive of these daily (perhaps not most weekends) reports — so I try to remember to do it here, copying over the contents of their “Total Ballots Left to Count?” page.

A REMINDER! My commentary will go above the double line; the counts themselves will be shown below it. Each are in chronological order.

**March 5:**

- We mourn the loss of the venerable Election Day Paper Ballot. My guess is that we’ll see it again if we ever have voting lines like they did in Los Angeles this week. (Are people still in line?)
- The “Provisionals Left to Count” section is screwed up. (As I believe that the ROV’s office does follow my reports, it will likely soon be fixed.)
- First, the first line should omit the word “left”
- Second, I’m wondering whether Provisionals are now covered under “Conditional Voter Registrations.”
- Third and way more important than the other two combined: the text refers to “Total estimated number of ballots
” — which doesn’t match its header.**from Drop Boxes**

- It may be that “Provisionals” is no longer a category, in which event they just need to change the header. Or it may be that they do want separate listings for Provisionals (separate from “CVRs,” discussed above) and Drop Boxes, in which event this will take a little more coding.
- This is probably a good moment for me to reiterate my tremendous respect for the OC ROV’s office — I’ve only had a
*serious*disagreement with them once — and this is said to inform not to shame. They have a huge task for the next month, and one need only look north and west to see how easily and massively it can be screwed up. From what I can tell so far, Vote Centers have been a hit. (I’d still like to hear from those least likely to have transportation, though.) - You can see from the figures that they have basically been working on two things for the past three days:
**Vote-by-Mail Ballots**and**Conditional Voter Registrations**.- Vote-by-Mail ballots are an issue because so many people waited — as, among Democrats, they damn well should have because the results were changing so quickly towards the end — to vote. (How many Steyer, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg ballots were cast in vain, given that their choices had dropped out by Election Day? I thought that it was safe to vote by Leap Day — and I wan’t cautious
*enough!*) So they have to work on those from the start. And, yes, ny guess is that it will likely take almost the full allotted month.) - Conditional Voter Registrations are at issue because they now have to notify voters whose votes might not otherwise be counted for various reasons. (I’m not sure of what all the reasons might be and how hard they are to investigate, and perhaps rebut — but I’m guessing that a functioning Democratic Party would tell voters that
**they should contact them before giving up on getting their vote counted.**I’d be blasting this message far and wide if I were Chair (rather than banished.) As it is, I’ll just note that I do Election Law work and you can contact me for a free consultation. (Leave a comment with a fake name, if you wish, but a correct email address.)

- Vote-by-Mail ballots are an issue because so many people waited — as, among Democrats, they damn well should have because the results were changing so quickly towards the end — to vote. (How many Steyer, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg ballots were cast in vain, given that their choices had dropped out by Election Day? I thought that it was safe to vote by Leap Day — and I wan’t cautious

**March 6:**

OK — the total number of ballots appears to be set! (Unless they didn’t update all that were received in today’s mail, that is.)

That number jumped today from 190,120 to 224,576.

The total number counted rose from 51,062 to 96,709.

The total number left to count fell from 139,058 to 127,867 as a function of those two changes above — but it’s all downhill from here! (That’s presuming no newly discovered ballots. One thing I’m eager to learn is whether the new system will lower, raise, or not affect the predominance of this embarrassing and dispiriting problem. People make honest mistakes, but they are painful.

They finished counting almost all of the regular Vote By Mail ballots by today. (Neal Kelley likes to leave some of each type of ballot around until the end, probably for a sound reason, perhaps for a superstitious or aesthetic reason, and possibly just to drive me nuts.) At any rate, there are 694 left our of the original 73,373.

**What did they count today?** Aside from all but the pulp on the bottom of the pitcher of early VBMs, they polished off most of the Later But Eligible VBMs, completing 23,647 of 36,271. Good show, folks!

They did not complete any additional Conditional Voter Registrations, which suggests that I was wrong about my belief that these had to be a priority.

We can now see that the two biggest categories remaining are the Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count, which I henceforth dub “BRAPPs” (“B” for Ballot), of which there are 72,089, and Ballots From Drop Boxes, which I hereby dub “DROPPIES,” (because “DROPPINGS” would be too unkind and DROP BOXERS too unseemly) of which there are 32,689.

Vern asked somewhere how long we expect the counting to take? The Conditional Voter Registrations (which I continue to believe refers to “provisional ballots”) is the wild card, but if they keep at the pace of about 48,000 per day — and, again, Kelley could either increase or decrease or reassign staff as needed — then my guess is that they *could *finish all but the CVRs in three full days (I don’t know whether there will be a full or partial day of work either day this weekend) but my guess is that it will take five more days, excluding weekend work, as more people get put onto CVRs. There are fewer than 9,800 CVRs left, so by the time everything else is done we’ll probably have few undecided races — although as I recall CDRs skew a little left and a little weird, and a lot end up being not-counted.

**A final note:** both problems in the odd reporting of the “Ballots from Drop Boxes” count, which had previously been misnamed, has been entirely fixed. I presume that this would have happened even *without* my raising the alarm — but I felt the need to do it, *just* in case, so that *I* understood what was going on!

**March 7:**

We saw a big increase on Saturday in the number of ballots cast in all categories, which went from 224,576 to 281,323. Where did they come from? Let’s find out!

- VBMs arriving no later than Election Day? No change.
- Droppies? Aha! Dropbox contents rose from 32,689 to 69,794! But that doesn’t account for the entire rise in total ballots.
- VBMs Returned at Polls? Rose from 72,089 to 91,707.
- Late but Eligible VBMs? Rose from 36,271 to 36,295,
- Provisionals? Stayed stable.

So my guess is that, with most people out of the office for the weekend, a specially trained crew checked to make sure that all ballots had been properly recorded, and perhaps took some envelopes of their boxes to count the envelopes for the first time. (If you’ve ever watched the counting, the spaces used are vast.) They found 24 late VBS that happened been logged. No big deal. They calculated that there were about 20,000 more VBMs returned at the polls than they’d previously cataloged. (This does not require opening the envelopes to see the ballots.) And they opened up some drop boxes to see how many envelopes were inside.

The first Saturday after voting would be a good time to assess what the actual total number of ballots were. (This translates to 39.3% turnout for the primary, which so far as I can recall is quite high. But I will eventually check.) So my guess is that there are no more boxes to open to catalog their contents — but of course there might be.

**What got counted?**

This is also interesting.

- VBMs arriving no later than Election Day? No change.
- Droppies? 45,747 of the 69,794 were counted today.
- VBMs Returned at Polls? None have been counted.
- Late but Eligible VBMs? Uncounted fell from 12,624 to 648.
- Provisionals/Conditionals? Counted rose from 383 to 1,141.

So, today saw about 2/3 of the Droppies counted, almost all of the rest of the Late-but-Eligibles, and 1/9 of the Provisionals, leaving only 9,013. Another day like today would finish off the Droppies and maybe half of the VBMs Returned at Polls. The question is how long those provisionals will take if everyone can be thrown at them — and I do not know the answer to that.

**March 9:**

The total number of post-election ballots to be counted rose from 281,323 to 291,823 — an increase in 10,500. (This is explained below.) Total left to count is now 102,610.

Whence came the increase?

- VBMs arriving no later than Election Day? No change.
- Droppies? Only 539 of the 69,794 are left uncounted.
- VBMs Returned at Polling Places (BRAPPs)? None of the 91,707 have yet been counted.
- Duplicated Ballots? This is a category (for this election) that just enters our report today. As I recall, these are ballots that are in some way damaged to the extent that they can’t be run through a scanner, so the votes have to be manually transferred to new ones that can be machine counted. (And I’m assured that, yes, the quality assurance on this process is meticulous.) This was the new 10,500 ballots, which some ROV employees have apparently been doing in the background, outside of the sensor range of these reports. All but 495 of these were counted today.
- Late but Eligible VBMs? Uncounted still at 648 out of 36,295,
- Provisionals/Conditionals? Counted rose to 1,627 of the 10,154 originals, leaving 8,527.

In sum, today’s results represent another good-sized quaff of DROPPIES, the usual trickle of conditional registrations, and a whole lot of damaged ballots duplicated so as to be scannable. Aside from the trickle of provisionals — which I’m *guessing* will be far smaller than the number supposedly left, because the original total number is not going down, so the ones that can’t be verified are presumably being left until they end, when they will be “counted” by being disqualified and removed from the total — this election will ultimately come come to BRAPPs. But past history with BRAPPs would not be a good indicator of how they will look this year, because it was so very much easier to vote early — and the ones who waiting to bring their ballots to the polling place would have been (1) people who like the ambiance of a voting center, (2) people who really *are* that disorganized … and (3) Democrats waiting to see the late trends in the Presidential race. We can gauge the number in the third category by checking to see how these late results affect the Presidential totals: I’d expect to see a proportional drop in Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer votes and — most likely — a surge in votes for Biden. (Then again, I know that lots of us Bernie voters are in that second category.)

In any event, what I care about is how this category of votes will affect AD-72. Democrats for Tyler Diep? I tend to doubt it…

**March 10:**

Everything except BRAPPs and Conditionals (fine, I’ll stop calling them “provisionals”) are at the “Neal Kelley’s pulp left in the glass” stage where they can be finished in a matter of hours, if not minutes.) Today was mostly all BRAPPs — “[VBM] Ballots Returned at Polling Places” along with the daily trickle of provisionals. Some races can’t be called without provisionals — Central Committee Members, mostly — but everything else will be pretty much done when the BRAPPs are done. The closest race — **Diedre Nguyen’s** catching up with **Tyler Diep** in AD-72 — will very likely flip tomorrow.

Here are the particulars:

Uncounted BRAPPS fell by 25,278, from 91,707 to 66,429.

Uncounted Conditionals fell from 8.527 to 7,844, a reduction of 683. At that rate, it will take 11½ more days to finish. Of course, we might expect staffing to increase once the other ballots have finished.

One more thing: “**Duplicated Ballots Left to Count,”** plural.

**Martch 11****:**

They are really picking up steam now. The “pulp numbers ( small amount of ballots left) for BABES, for “(VBM) Ballots Arrived By Election (Day)” (694), DROPPIES of (ballots retrieved from Drop Boxes) (539), DUPES, for “Duplications and substitutions for damaged ballots” (495), and LAMES (“Late Arriving Mail that is Eligible)” (648) haven’t changed since they reached those low levels.

Now we’re down to the BRAPPS, for “Ballots Returned at Polling Places/Votes Centers” and CONDIS, “Conditional Registrations, which is somehow different from Provisional Ballots.”

BRAPPS fell from 66,429 uncounted to 11,294 — in other words, 55,135 were counted today.

CONDIS — the most intensive, as they require outside verification of eligibility — fell from 7,844 uncounted to 6,378, meaning that 1,466 were counted today.

Counting of CONDIS seems to be the limiting factor: I don’t know how much they can hurry their count up even if they throw all of their staff at them. The 2,376 ballots left in those first four categories where wer’re down to the pulp can probably be finished in less than an hour, judging by the rate that they mowed through those BRAPPs today. But at the present rate the CONDIS will take a little more than four days. My guess is that at some point they’ve done all that they can to find people — which as I recall means sending certified mail to their home address — and then they get canceled and we move on. **So if you voted based on a conditional registration, GO TO THE ROV SITE and make sure that your are now registered**, in which event your ballot will presumably have been counted.

Depending on that deadline, we could be almost done — or the last bits might come in slowly over this week and next. I could call the ROV’s office and seek an explanation, but that’s more of a VOC thing to do. I like to figure it out from the clues they leave! But in any event, we’ll probably be talking about fewer than one vote per precinct, so once conditionals are down to triple digits even almost all of the the close races probably won’t be affected.

**March 12:**

The votes, they dwindle down to a precious few…. Yesterday’s 20,048 uncounted has become today’s 9,254, a reduction of 10,794.

Where’d that come from? Well, one thing that moved in the *other* direction is that they recalculated their number of DROPPIES (or found another stack of them, or emptied one they had forgotten about, increasing both the number of DROPPIES over all and the amount of recounted ones by an 1,000. So we *actually* must explain the reduction of **11,794** uncounted votes.

Uncounted BRAPPS fell from 11,294 to 1,358, so that **9,936** total is the brunt of the counting done today. (For the first time, there are fewer BRAPPS than DROPPIES to count.) The balance are CONDIS — the number of uncounted ones fell from 6,378 down to 4,520, so that’s **1,858** counted. And that accounts for all the counting.

Let’s review the categories so that I can make my predictions:

BABES: “[VBM] Ballots Arrived By Election [Day]” = 694

DROPPIES: “[ballots retrieved from] Drop [Boxes] = 539

DUPES: “Duplications [substituting for damaged ballots]”= 495

LAMES: “Late Arriving Mail that is Eligible)” = 648

BRAPPS: “Ballots Returned at Polling Places” = 1,358

CONDIS: “Conditional [registrations, *not* provisionals]” = 4,520

Everything except CONDIS amounts to 3,734 ballots, which takes a third of a day at normal staffing. (I suspect from the numbers that Kelley has maintained normal staffing, perhaps because of the desire to wrap up the Presidential Primary results.) Those CONDIS, seem to require about 2.5 days of work. So, combined, that’s about three days — less if the staff on normal ballots can quicken the CONDIS count. With coronavirus coming, I suspect that Kelley would like to clear his office, so I think he will keep people Saturday and aim to finish by Tuesday — which is still a remarkable pace.

**March the Friday the 13th:**

If we are to believe the countdown timer, there *will* be counting on Saturday. If fully staffed, will it finish things off? Let’s take a look! Of the 304,823 ballots cast in all categories, they have counted 302,074, leaving 2,749 uncounted.

What I find a little confusing is that the current election results show 804,410 ballots cast. Don’t panic about that discrepancy, but I think that it *will* require me to do some actual reporting, like a phone call or email. I suspect that for their “Precinct 0” they had already counted almost exactly 500,000 ballots before election day. Nice — but were they *all* early VBMs? It would be nice to know which modes people used to vote — and whether that number included anything from Vote Centers or Drop Boxes.

Among uncounted ballot categories formerly in “pulp” status:

- BABES “[VBM] Ballots Arrived By Election (Day)” fell from 694 to 144)
- DROPPIES “[ballots retrieved from] Drop Boxes”) (fell from 539 to 189)
- DUPES “Duplications & substitutions for damaged ballots” fell from 495 to 295 );
- LAMES (“Late Arriving [Vote By] Mail that is Eligible)” fell from 648 to 148).

The total remaining in these four categories combined is 776. (If you get the idea that they’re counting ballots in increments that are multiples of 25 or 50, I’d say you’re right!)

For uncounted ballots from the two big remaining categories:

- BRAPPS “Ballots Returned at Polling Places” (which I consider Vote Centers still to be) fell from 1,358 to 158.

That brings the running total to 934.

- CONDIES (“Conditional Registrations” which apparently differ from “Provisionals”) fell from 4,540 to 1,815.

And that brings the total to 2,749 — just under 2/3 of which are Conditional Registrations.

They *could* probably finish on Saturday — but with a reduced staff could leave it until Monday. Regardless, though, after this first count their work is not yet done. I believe that they run a certain number (10%) through a check — but that will probably not require anyone but regular employees. Hopefully, no recounts this time.

**Monday, March 16**

They did not finish on Saturday. They did not finish by Monday. I’m trying hard not to take Neal Kelley’s making hash of my every prediction personally. Just in case he’s reading these posts and laughing at me, I now predict that he won’t be done until April 4, just to speed things up.

Here’s where we stand, with what I concede is probably a substantially and rightfully truncated team of counters, presumably all social distancing their hearts out:

The “Total ballots left to count” count is down by exactly 1,000, from 2,749 to 1,749.

BABES (IN BY ELECTION DAY), still 144

DROPPIES (DROPBOXES), still 189

BRAPPS (RETURNED AT POLLS) still 158

DUPES (DAMAGED BALLOTS) 195, down by 100

LAMES (LATE ARRIVING MAILED ELIGIBLE) still 148

CONDIES (CONDITIONAL REG) 915, down by 900

*Could *they finish the initial count tomorrow? Sure, with enough labor, which is unnecessary (as the state’s final delegate results are hung up on almost every other county other than OC.)

*Will* they? Probably not. And what I *don’t* recall is whether they do the verification before they declare themselves entirely done. (And, for all I know, they may already be doing the verification before they even finish the last few ballots.)

**Tuesday, March 17**

The conditional ballots have been vanquished, down from 915 to a mere 15. The total left to count is down from 1,749 to 704. It is reasonable to expect that tomorrow is going to be the end, which is why I dare not predict that outcome.

The other numbers, save for the droppies, haven’t budged.

BABES (BALLOTS ARRIVED BY ELECTION DAY), still 144

DROPPIES (DROPBOXES), was 189, now 44

BRAPPS (BALLOTS RETURNED AT POLLS) still 158

DUPES (DAMAGED BALLOTS) still 195

LAMES (LATE ARRIVING MAIL, ELIGIBLE) still 148

CONDIES (CONDITIONAL REG) was 915, now 15

**TODAY WAS THE DAY **that we finally passed 50% turnout in the primary. (Yesterday, we got there only by rounding up.)

**March 18: **

No new DROPPIES (44), DUPES (195), LAMES (148), or CONDIES (15) were counted.

TOTAL: Down from 704 to 533

BABES: Down from 144 to 0

BRAPPS: Down from 158 to 131

I’m betting on three things: (1) Neal Kelley is slow-walking this count at the end just to keep other counties’ Registrars of Voters from looking bad, (2) No more than five people did counting today, and (3) Despite all that, it will still be done on Friday, so that everyone can have a relating weekend. (Or Maybe Tuesday.)

**March 19:**

TOTAL: down from 533 to 375, a reduction of 158.

BABES are entirely depleted.

No new BRAPPS (131 left), DROPPIES (44), LAMES (148), or CONDIES (15) were counted.

DUPES went down from 195 to 37 — and there’s your 158!

Yeah, probably by Tuesday. Whatever. *(Pssst! I predict that they will finish tomorrow, and at a safe social distance!)*

**March 20:** As quietly predicted, they finished today! Deep thoughts about how many votes came in when and by what mode will be coming in due time!

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.

*The number of ballots left to count can increase after election day, due California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 302,074

Total Estimated Left to Count: 2,749

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,229

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 144

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,605

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 189

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,549

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 158

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,205

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 295

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 36,295

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 8,339

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 1,815

# March 5

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 190,120

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 51,062

Total Estimated Left to Count: 139,058

## Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 73373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 50,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 22,694

## Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 0

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 0

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 0

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 72089

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 72,089

## Election Day Paper Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 0

Total election day paper ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 0

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 34,504

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 0

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 34,504

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 383

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 9,771

# March 6

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Note: These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 224,576

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 96,709

Total Estimated Left to Count: 127,867

## Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 73,373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 32,689

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 0

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 32,689

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 72,089

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 72,089

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 36,271

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 23,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 12,624

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 383

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 9,771

# March 7

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 281,323

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 155,214

Total Estimated Left to Count: 126,109

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73,373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 69,794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 45,747

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 24,047

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 91,707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 91,707

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 36,295

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 648

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 1,141

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 9,013

# March 9

# Total Ballots Left to Count

*The number of ballots left to count can increase after election day, due California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 291,823

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 189,213

Total Estimated Left to Count: 102,610

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 69794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 69,255

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 539

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 91707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 0

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 91,707

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500

Total duplicated ballots counted: 10,005

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 495

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 36,295

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 648

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 1,627

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 8,527

# March 10

# Total Ballots Left to Count

**The number of ballots left to count can increase after election day, due California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.*

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 291,823

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 215,174

Total Estimated Left to Count: 76,649

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 69794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 69,255

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 539

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 91707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 25,278

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 66,429

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500

Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,005

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 495

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 648

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 2,310

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 7,844

# March 11

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 291,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 271,775

Total Estimated Left to Count: 20,048

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73,373Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 69794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 69,255

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 539

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 91707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 80,413

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 11,294

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,005

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 495

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 648

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 3,776

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 6,378

# March 12

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 295,569

Total Estimated Left to Count: 9,254

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 72,679

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 694

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 69,255

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 1,539

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 102,349

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 1,358

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,005

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 495

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 35,647

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 648

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 5,634

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 4,520

# March 13

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Note: *(See the notes on the previous day’s report.)*

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 302,074

Total Estimated Left to Count: 2,749

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,229

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 144

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794

Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,605

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 189

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,549

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 158

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500

Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,205

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 295

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 8,339

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 1,815

# March 14

Yesterday, total voter turnout (including Election Day) was 804,410.

Today at 5:00, total voter turnout was 810,538.

Today at 8:00, there was a supplementary report showing total voter turnout as 812,826.

Both the 5:00 number and the 8:00 number are over the 2,739 votes that were supposedly remaining. That number, though, is close to the difference between them (which is 2,288.)

The countdown timer says that there will be a report on Monday at 5:00 — and not before. The “What’s Left to Count?” page has not been updated as of 8:45. So my guess is that there are 451 (the difference between the 5:00 and 8:00 postings) left to count, and that they — perhaps along with the results of the 10% (or whatever percent it is) audit they still have to do. But that’s just a guess. It’s *almost* over, that’s for sure! And except for *possibly* some Central Committee races, nothing is likely to change.

Just in case, I’ll draft my final wrap-up this weekend, but won’t publish it until we’re entirely done. For those who are following Diedre’s AD-72 race, she’s leading Tyler by a safe 827 votes — exactly 0.7%.

# March 16

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 303,074

Total Estimated Left to Count: 1,749

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,229

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 144

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,605

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 189

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,549

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 158

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,305

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 195

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 9,239

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 915

# March 17

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 304,119

Total Estimated Left to Count: 704

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,229

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 144

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,750

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 44

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,549

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 158

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,305

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 195

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 10,139

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 15

# March 18

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 304,290

Total Estimated Left to Count: 533

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,373

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,750

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 44

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,576

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 131

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,305

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 195

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 10,139

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 15

All of the BABES (“Ballots Arrived By Election Day”) are counted

27 BRAPPS were counted.

No new DROPPIES, DUPES, LAMES, or CONDIES were counted.

# March 19

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 304,823Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 304,448

Total Estimated Left to Count: 375

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count: 73373Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 73,373

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 70794Total ballots from Drop Boxes counted: 70,750

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 44

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,576

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 131

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to be duplicated left to count: 10500Total ballots to be duplicated counted: 10,463

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 37

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,147

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 148

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 10,139

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 15

# March 20, Final-ish Results

# Total Ballots Left to Count

Total Estimated Left to Count: 0

## Vote-by-mail ballots received on or before Election Day via mail left to count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

## Ballots From Drop Boxes Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots from Drop Boxes left to count: 0

## Vote-by-Mail Returned at Vote Centers Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers to count: 103,707

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers counted: 103,707

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the Vote Centers left to count: 0

## Duplicated Ballot Left to Count

Total estimated number of duplicated ballots left to count: 0

## Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 36,295

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 0

## Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 10,154

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 10,154

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 0

Hi Greg- Are you pulling the numbers from the ocvote website ? I looked at the refresh site every 15 min but where do you get the ballots to be counted ?

No point looking more often than every day at 5pm. And.. i’ll get you that other link in a second…

Here ya go https://www.ocvote.com/results/left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count/

https://www.ocvote.com/results/left-to-count/total-ballots-left-to-count/

I give away the recipe to my secret sauce gladly.

There is so much more amazing stuff there on the ROV site, like Statements of the Vote, letting you know what happened in any given jurisdiction, right down to the precinct level. Pretty heavenly for us stats nerds!

Weird, I guess they update more often than just 5pm. I checked well after 5 yesterday and they still had over 165,000 left, but you’re right, Friday morning it says 139,058.

And some of the races have moved, all in a direction I don’t like.

*And the winners in November are: Mike Levin, Katie Porter, Cottie, Harley, John Moorlach and Christy Smith. Gil, has an uphill run and will have to find dirt on his opponent to win.

Who the hell is Christy Smith?

Gil will be fine. If you’re just looking at OC, most of the district’s Democrats are in LA and SB.

*The Trumpster just spoke…. World Recession Ahead. Lock down those borders and

allow NOTHING into this country. NOTHING from Europe, Nothing from Asia…..Nothing.

What are those Farmers going to do with their goods….sit on them? Think the Europeans are going to buy F-15’s, F-35’s or 737 Maxi’s……not much chance. Welcome to OJT for our beloved President! Learn by doing! Nice!

All my pinche piano work is getting cancelled.

I’m glad I at least have some orchestrating and arranging work, hope it lasts.

This comment isn’t about counting local votes in local races, but about counting *delegates* for Presidential candidates. It was in response to a question asked on Facebook, but I’ll reproduce the answer here in case it’s of general interest:

I can help with this. The information you need is on this page:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/CA-D#CA-D-STATEWIDE

You’re welcome to ask me questions about how to interpret it.

If you scroll down, you’ll see that there are three kinds of delegates: (1) by Congressional District, (2) Statewide At-Large, and (3) Statewide PLEO.

Bernie has 50 of the 90 At-Large and Biden has 40. This will probably move to 51 vs. 39. Bernie’s vote share (excluding candidates who didn’t get at least 15%) gives him 50.463% of the statewide At-Large delegates, which rounds down to 50. Biden has 39.537% of the statewide vote, which rounds up to 40. If Bernie’s percentage after the decimal point becomes larger than Biden’s, he’ll get one more delegate and Biden will lose one. The same principle applies to PLEOs, where Bernie has 30.278 and Biden has 23.722 — rounding to 30 vs. 24.

The same method applies to Congressional District delegates. Each district is allocated a number of delegates based on its Democratic vote. You then calculate the share of the delegates among all candidates who got at least 15% in that district. For example, in CD 38 (Linda Sanchez) there were 61,466 votes of which 43,059 went to candidates who “qualified” with over 15%. (Only Bernie and Biden qualified.) This district is assigned 5 delegates. Bernie had 24,539 votes and Biden 18,520. You take their percentage share of the total number of votes between them (that’s the 43,059 above) and you multiply that percentage b the 5 delegates. Bernie’s share is 2.849 of those 5 delegates, which rounds up to 3, Biden’s share is 2.151, which rounds down to 2. If a third candidate had qualified, so that neither of them had been able to round up to the next highest number, then you look to who is *closest* to rounding up and they get the delegate.

I know that this math may freak people out, but it’s all pretty straightforward if you know the rules. If anyone wants to know what’s going on with a particular CD, just ask me. Note that this site, The Green Papers, updates at least once a day (usually more) when new votes come in.